Dear Stuart,

Westside detached home sales and listing activity in November continues to trend below the long term averages.

Compared to the 10 year average, the westside supply was down 8% for detached homes, up 15% for apartments and up 29% for townhomes.

Compared to the 10 year average, the westside demand was down 45% for detached homes, 32% for apartments and 40% for townhomes.

Median home prices in November are down 17% for detached homes (peak Oct.2017), down 10.3% for apartments (peak Jan.2018) and down 17% (peak Feb.2022) for attached homes.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) METRO report says that residential property sales in the region decreased 52.9% to 1614 in Nov. from 3428 sales in Nov. 2021. This is a 15.2% increase from the 1903 homes sold in Oct. 2022 but down 36.9% from the 10 year Nov. sales average.

The total number of properties currently offered on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9179, up 28.5% compared to Nov. 2021 and down 6.8% from 9852 last month. 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported that the benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,131,600 which is a .6% decrease from Nov. 2021 and is 1.5% down from last month.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for Nov. 2022 is 17.6%. For detached homes it is 13.2%, attached homes are 19.7% and apartments are 20.8%.

Downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12% mark for a sustained period, while upward pressure occurs when it surpasses 20% over several months.

Inflation & rising interest rates continue to dog the westside real estate market. I am surprised that property owners are not more upset by the recent announcement prohibiting foreign buyers from buying Canadian property and the upcoming 3 day buyer recision period, both which disenfranchise current home owners.

Westside numbers show the Nov. price decreases continue the market decline (since April) and the next couple of traditionally slow months offer no sign of relief. The foreign buyer prohibition (Jan.1/2023) may encourage foreign buyers to act before January when they are blocked from buying. So prices may stay elevated until the new year when the interest rates, government policy and rising supply have their full effect.

"With the most recent core inflation metrics showing a stubborn reluctance to respond significantly to the furious pace of rate increases, the Bank of Canada may choose to act more forcefully to bring inflation back toward target levels,” said Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics. “While it’s always difficult to predict what the bank will do with certainty, this persistent inflationary backdrop sets up the Dec. 6 rate announcement to be yet another increase, making holiday-season home purchases something many people may end up foregoing this year.”

Also, given that rates only started to increase in April 2022, we have not seen a full year of their effect on the market. As those mortgage renewals come up we will see if that increases our supply and any effect it has on our market prices.

Happy Holidays and all the best for 2023!🍾🎉🎊

Stay safe and healthy.

Best regards,

Stuart 🎄🎁🔔🍪

The supply of westside detached homes in November was 581, down 3% from 597 in October and down 8% compared to 630 last year in November 2021. 

Sales of westside detached homes this November decreased 28% from Oct (52 vs 72) and were 48% lower than November 2021. This is 45% lower than the November ten year average of 94 sales.

Months of Supply, (MOS) in November is up 35% from last month to 11.2 from 8.3 in October and up 74% from November 2021. (A balanced market keeping prices relatively flat now appears to be 7 to 10 MOS). The November average price was down 3% from October at $3.628M and the median detached home price increased 3% to $3.192M. Current prices are down 20% on average & 17% on median from the peaks in Oct 2017 and Jul 2017. 

The highest sale price for a Westside detached home in November was $8.8M. It was on the market for 7 days before it sold. The lowest price was $1.5M. It was on the market for 57 days. Of the 52 sales, 8 received the asking price or more and 44 sold below the asking price.

Westside apartment supply decreased 3% in November to 1427 from 1470 in October and increased 7% from the 1331 listings we had in November 2021. At the same time, demand decreased 5% to 225 sales from 236 sales in October and this is down 53% from 482 sales in November 2021. Apartment sales are down 32% from the ten year average of 329 sales.

MOS in November decreased 1.8% to 6.3 from 6.2 in October and this is up 129% from 2.8 in November 2021.

The average price in November decreased 7.1% ($965 v $1039K) from October 2022 and was up 2.5% from November 2021. The median price was down 3.8% from October ($789 v $820) and is up 2.5% from November 2021. Average prices are still down by 20% from the peak of $1.199M and median prices are down 10% from the peak in January 2018.

Westside townhouse supply decreased 5.3% in November from October (266 vs 281), and was up 27% from November 2021 (266 v 209). Demand in November is down from November (28 vs 33 sales) and down 56% from last November 2021 (28 v 64). Attached home sales are down 40% from the 10 year average of 47 sales.

With supply and demand down, current MOS increased 12% to 9.5. That is up 191% from 3.3 in November 2021.

Townhouse average prices at $1.646M in November were up 6.1% from October and were down 11.2% from $1.854M last November 2021. Median prices are unchanged in November from October (1.484M v 1.475M) and are down 13% from November 2021. The average price is down 11.2% from the peak of $1.854M in Nov. 2021. The median price is down 17.5% from the peak of $1.799M in February 2022.