Dear Stuart,

In January, the sales and listings activity for detached homes on the Westside remained below the long-term averages. 

Compared to the 10-year average, the supply of detached homes decreased by 2%, while apartments increased by 27%, and townhomes increased by 22%.

Similarly, demand, when compared to the 10-year average, decreased by 34% for detached homes, apartments decreased by 19%, and townhomes decreased by 39%.

In January, the westside Detached Home median price is down 27.4% from the peak in August 2023. The Apartment median price decreased by 6% from the peak in January 2018, and the Attached Home median price declined by 12% from the peak in February 2022.

The spring market often starts off undersupplied and this year is no different with inventory struggling to keep pace with demand. The ratio of demand to supply known as “months of supply”. MOS, is a driver of prices with a high MOS causing prices to decline and a low MOS causing prices to rise.

Our supply of homes usually increases Feb. through June and the demand which is still well below the 10 year average should also peak during that time. 

In January, the MOS, for westside detached homes, is 11.9 months which is too high to sustain prices. The question is whether demand in February will increase to the point where MOS drops and prices start to increase.



New listings are starting to come onto the market too however and while the 2024 forecast is calling for a 2-3% increase in prices by the year end, that will depend on increases in demand exceeding increases in supply. 

Greater MOS inclines prices to fall and lower MOS inclines prices to rise.

February supply & demand numbers will help us see if the early signs of price strength continue or are merely a blip in the data. 

The seasonal market cycle is; quiet in Dec & January, busy February through June, slowing down in July & August and picking up a little in October. So now is the time to prepare for a spring sale.

Rate cuts if they come will encourage buying but we are also further into the mortgage renewal cycle and many owners who purchased with favourable rates are now coming into renewals at much higher rates. For those owners unable to access funds from other sources to pay down their mortgages, the question is whether they will be forced to sell, increasing supply and what that will do to MOS & prices?

The fact that prices are as strong as they are given the market forces arrayed against buyers is amazing and supports the idea that the Vancouver market defies gravity!

Happy Valentine's Day! 🏹💘🐻🍓🌸🎀

Best regards

Stuart

Detailed information on the Westside detached homes market in January. Here's a summary of the key points:

• Supply:
• In January, the supply of Westside detached homes decreased by 8% compared to December, with a total of 453 homes available, down from 490.
• This is a decrease of 5% compared to January 2023 when there were 477 homes on the market.
• Demand:
• Sales of Westside detached homes in January were up 12% from December, with 38 homes sold.
• Sales were up 52% compared to January 2023, which had 25 sales.
• The number of sales remains 34% lower than the ten-year average of 58 sales.
• Months of Supply (MOS):
• The Months of Supply (MOS) in January decreased by 17% from the previous month, with a current MOS of 11.9 compared to 14.4 in December.
• This represents an 37.5% decrease from January 2023.
• A MOS between 7 to 10 is typically considered a balanced market, where prices tend to remain relatively stable.
• Pricing:
• The average and median detached home prices in January decreased 27% from August 2023's peak.
• The average price is $3.44 million, and the median price is $3.07 million.
• Current prices are down 24% on average and down 11% on median from their previous peaks in October 2017 and July 2017, respectively.
• High and Low Sale Prices:
• The highest sale price for a Westside detached home in January was $6.18 million, which spent 62 days on the market before selling.
• The lowest price for a detached home was $1.635 million, selling after 13 days on the market.
• Of the 38 sales, 7 received the asking price or more, while 31 homes sold below the asking price.

These statistics provide a comprehensive overview of the Westside detached homes market in January shedding light on changes in supply, demand, pricing, and notable sale prices.

Detailed information on the Westside apartment market in January. Here's a summary of the key points:

• Supply:
• In January, the supply of Westside apartments was unchanged compared to December, with a total of 1,278 apartments available for sale.
• This number is up by 14% from January 2023.
• Demand:
• Demand for Westside apartments increased by 5% in January, with 186 sales compared to 177 sales in December.
• The number of sales in January was up 24% from the same month last year, which had 150 sales.
• Apartment sales are down 19% from the ten-year average of 228 sales.
• Months of Supply (MOS):
• The Months of Supply (MOS) in January decreased by 5% compared to December, to 6.9.
• This is a decrease of 8% from the MOS of 7.5 in January 2023.
• Prices:
• The average price of Westside apartments in January is up sligtly from December, with the average price at $1.05 million.
• It was up by 13% from January 2023.
• The median price was relatively unchanged from December at $828K and is down slightly from January 2023.
• Both average and median prices are down from their respective peaks, with average prices down by 12% from the peak of $1,199,000, and median prices down 6% from the peak in January 2018.

These statistics provide a comprehensive picture of the Westside apartment market in January, highlighting changes in supply, demand, pricing, and their respective trends over time.

Detailed information on the Westside townhouse market in January. Here's a summary of the key points:

• Supply:
• In January, the supply of Westside townhouses increased by 2% compared to December, with a total of 216 townhouses available for sale.
• The supply was up 6% from January 2023, which had 204 townhouses on the market.
• Demand:
• The demand for townhouses in January decreased by 22%, with 18 sales.
• The number of sales in January decreased by 10% from the same month last year, which had 20 sales.
• Attached home sales are 39% below the ten-year average of 30 sales.
• Months of Supply (MOS):
• With the increase in supply and decrease in demand, the current Months of Supply (MOS) for townhouses increased by 31%, reaching 12.
• This is 18% higher than the MOS of 10.2 in January 2023.
• Prices:
• The average price of townhouses in January was $1.79 million, showing a 8% increase from December.
• It decreased slightly from January 2023 when the average price was $1.82 million.
• The median price in January was $1.73 million, a 9% increase from December ($1.59 million), and relatively unchanged from January 2023.
• Both average and median prices for townhouses are down from their respective peaks, with the average price decreasing by 3% from the peak of $1.854 million in November 2021, and the median price down 4% from the peak of $1.799 million in February 2022.

These statistics provide a comprehensive overview of the Westside townhouse market in January, indicating changes in supply, demand, pricing, and their respective trends over time.