Dear Stuart,

The supply of westside detached homes in September was 663, down slightly from 668 in August and down 11% compared to 742 last year in September 2021. 

Sales of westside detached homes this September decreased 7% from August (51 vs 55) and were 36% lower than September 2021. This is 44% lower than the September ten year average of 90 sales.

Months of Supply, (MOS) in September is up 7% from last month to 13 from 12.1 in August and up 40% from September 2021. (A balanced market keeping prices relatively flat now appears to be 7 to 10 MOS). The September average price was up 26% from August at $4.32M and the median detached home price also increased 13% to $3.51M. Current prices are down 4.8% on average & 8.8% on median from the peaks in Oct 2017 and Jul 2017. 

The highest sale price for a Westside detached home in September was $14.8M. It was on the market for 1180 days before it sold! The lowest price was $1.8M. It was on the market for 6 days. Of the 51 sales, 7 received the asking price or more and 44 sold below the asking price.

Westside apartment supply increased 8% in September to 1450 from 1341 in August and decreased 8.2% from the 1579 listings we had in September 2021. At the same time, demand decreased 24% to 214 sales from 282 sales in August and this is down 49% from 418 sales in September 2021. Apartment sales are down 38% from the ten year average of 345 sales.

MOS in September increased 43% to 6.8 from 4.8 in August and this is up 79% from 3.8 in September 2021.

The average price in September decreased 1% ($958 v $970K) from August 2022 and was relatively unchanged from September 2021. The median price was down 2.4% from August ($809 v $829) and is up 2.2% from September 2021. Average prices are still down by 20% from the peak of $1.199M and median prices are down 8% from the peak in January 2018.

Westside townhouse supply increased 1.6% in September from August (250 vs 246), and was up 21% from September 2021 (250 v 206). Demand in September is down 8% from August (34 vs 37 sales) and down 48% from last September 2021 (34 v 65). Attached home sales are down 30% from the 10 year average of 49 sales.

With supply up and demand down, current MOS increased 11% to 7.4. That is up 132% from 3.2 in September 2021.

Townhouse average prices at $1.612M in September were down 1.3% from August and were down 4.5% from $1.688M last September 2021. Median prices are up in September from August (1.62M v 1.366M) and are up 12% September 2021. The average price is down 13.1% from the peak of $1.854M in Nov. 2021. The median price is down 10% from the peak of $1.799M in February 2022.

Compared to the 10 year average, the westside supply was down 10% for detached homes, up 4% for apartments and up 8% for townhomes.

Compared to the 10 year average, the westside demand was down 44% for detached homes, 38% for apartments and down 30% for townhomes.

Median home prices in September are up 13.3% for detached homes (peak Oct.2017), down 2.4% for apartments (peak Jan.2018) and down 10% (peak Feb.2022) for attached homes.

Rising interest rates, steady supply, falling demand and the recent announcement prohibiting foreign buyers from buying Canadian property suggests prices will continue to soften. Prices rallied in Sept. but that could be attributed to foreign buyers jumping to buy ahead of the government cutting them off. Another interest rate increase is also forecast and that will be detrimental to any price recovery for local or foreign owners.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) METRO report says that residential property sales in the region decreased 46.4% to 1687 in Sept. from 3149 sales in Sept. 2021. This is a 22.6% decrease from the 1870 homes sold in Aug. 2022 and 35.7% below the 10 year Sept. sales average.

The total number of properties currently offered on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9971, up 8% compared to Sept. 2021 and up 3.2% from 9662 last month. 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reported that the benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is $1,155,300 which is a 3.9% increase over Sept. 2021 but is down 2% from last month.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for July 2022 is 16.9%. For detached homes it is 12.4%, attached homes are 18.4% and apartments are 20.9%.

Downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below the 12% mark for a sustained period, while upward pressure occurs when it surpasses 20% over several months.

Westside numbers suggest the Sept. price increases are a surprise and lower sales numbers and increasing supply should soften prices. The foreign buyer prohibition (Jan.1/2023) may encourage foreign buyers to act before they are blocked from buying. So prices may stay elevated until the new year when the interest rates, government policy and rising supply have their full effect.

Happy Thanksgiving ! 🦃🍁🥧🎃

Best regards,

Stuart