Dear Stuart,
Westside detached home sales in September remained sluggish compared to historical trends. Listings, however, were more active than usual.
Supply, compared to the 10-year average, is up 4% for detached homes, while apartment supply is up 43%, and townhomes are up 63%.
Demand, when compared to the 10-year averages, is down by 28% for detached homes, 36% for apartments and townhomes are up by 2%.
Buyers are trying to buy and housing supply jumped again in September as did demand, up 13% over August. Well priced homes are selling quickly and over priced homes are getting offers often 20% below their asking prices. Buyers are still hurting from the high interest rates even after three quarter point rate drops and many sales still fall apart due to financing.
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In September, the westside Detached Home average price is down 16.5% from the peak in August 2023. The Attached home average price is down 13% from the peak in May 2024 and the Apartment average price is down 20% from the peak in January 2018.
The Bank of Canada is expected to drop the rate another 1/4 point before the year end which should help buyers qualify for more mortgage debt. Each quarter point drop will save a borrower about $150 per month on a $1M mortgage.
The market has been expecting higher inventory levels since the BoC started raising rates and that along with zoning encouraging higher density has resulted in a steady rise in supply of apartments, attached and detached homes.
Demand has responded to higher interest rates by falling in all categories but the surprise has been how prices have remained steady in the face of those increasing costs & supply.
The market is becoming a buyers market and the extra supply will help give buyers who can secure financing more choices for their purchasing dollars.
Further rate cuts if they come later this year should encourage demand but we are also further into the mortgage renewal cycle and many mortgage holders have yet to hit their renewal dates under the higher ratesโฆ.
The market picked up in mid Sept. and we expect October to be better.
Happy Thanksgiving! ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ ๐ฆ ๐ฅง
Best regards
Stuart
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