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June 15, 2025
Key Developments and What We're Discussing Today:
1) Today, June 15, marks 618 days since October 7, 2023. The Hamas-led attack on Simchat Torah resulted in 1,182 fatalities (including 44 Americans) and over 4,000 wounded. 251 hostages (210 alive, 41 dead bodies) were taken during a day of brutal savagery and sexual violence. It was the largest single massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, with more than one in every 10,000 Israelis killed, and the third overall deadliest terrorist attack in the world to date.
2) The IDF recovered the bodies of two hostages last week. The 53 remaining hostages, 30 known to be dead, 20 thought to be alive, and three of unknown status, include the bodies of two Americans: Omer Neutra and Itay Chen. Releasing all the hostages might not be priorities for Trump and Netanyahu, but it's a top priority for us.
3) Check out the upcoming events section for details about the Nexus Project's Tuesday, June 17, noon ET event on protecting Jews and protecting democracy.
4) Last week, the Trump administration moved on several fronts to normalize authoritarianism and to make us less safe.
5) Reasonable minds can differ on the wisdom of Israel's attack on Iran, which followed two massive ballistic missile attacks against Israel, but now that Israel has attacked, the U.S. must stand with Israel.
6) Supporting Israel and sympathizing with Palestinians are complementary, not contradictory.
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Hi Steve,
Last week, the Israel Defense Forces recovered the bodies of Yair (Yaya) Yaakov and the body of another resident from Kibbutz Nir Oz. The family of the second individual from Nir Oz has requested not to publicize details of the recovery or the name in the media. Yair (Yaya) Yaakov, 59 years old, was kidnapped from his home in Nir Oz and murdered on October 7.
Every time you meet with a member of Congress for any reason, please remind them that time is running out for the living hostages. The Gaza war must end, and all of the hostages must be returned immediately.
This is not the America we know. Last week alone,
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Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth refused to say whether he would follow a lower court order to remove troops from Los Angeles.
- The Trump administration told hundreds of thousands of migrants here legally that their permission to live and work in the United States had been revoked and they should leave the country. Our country is great in part because we attract the best and most ambitious people from around the world. Trump's immigration policies are the equivalent of a basketball team getting rid of its promising young players and thinking that it could remain competitive without new talent, except that Trump's policies are morally depraved.
- The Trump administration is ending a terrorism prevention program focused on "lone-wolf" attacks because it does not align with its priorities. The antisemitic attacks in Boulder, at the Capital Jewish Museum in DC, and on Gov. Josh Shapiro's residence on Pesach were all lone-wolf attacks.
- Secretary of Health Robert F. Kennedy Jr. removed all 17 members of a key advisory committee that helps craft vaccine policy and recommendations for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and replaced them with a collection of anti-vaxxers.
- Trump held the type of military parade typically seen in countries like Russia and North Korea.
All of that happened last week. None of it is what America stands for or what made America great. No one has a magic answer, but I know what not to do: Give up or stay silent. This is a tough, dangerous time. The worst thing we could do is lose hope, but we cannot treat this as normal. None of it is normal or right.
Authoritarianism isn't coming. It's here. But we can still stop it.
Israel attacked Iran. This attack did not come out of the blue. In April and October of 2024, Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel. For decades, Iran's proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah, have fired missiles at Israel and engaged in terrorism against Israel. Iran's theocracy has repeatedly vowed to destroy Israel.
On June 12, the International Atomic Energy Agency found that Iran was not complying with its nuclear nonproliferation obligations. Prior to Israel's attack, Iran was about ten days from nuclear breakout. ("Breakout" is defined as the accumulation of enough fissile uranium for one nuclear bomb.)
Trump would not have been negotiating a deal with Iran, and Israel might not have attacked Iran, had Trump not withdrawn from the Iran Deal during his first term, when Iran was in compliance and more than a year from nuclear breakout.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio's first instinct upon learning of the attack was not to support our ally Israel but to tell Iran we had nothing to do with it, so leave us alone. He said nothing about defending Israel from retaliation. Those are the words of a cowardly isolationist, not a true friend of Israel.
Trump had warned Israel not to attack Iran, but the more Israel's strikes seem to be succeeding, the more he seems to like them, to the extent that on Friday he began assisting Israel in shooting down Iranian missiles.
If you were in Israel's shoes, knowing how close Iran was to breakout, would you trust the most corrupt and incompetent administration in American history to negotiate a deal with a terrorist state that twice last year launched hundreds of ballistic missiles against you? Especially when Trump was keeping you out of the loop on the negotiations? Especially when that terrorist state had vowed to destroy you?
No matter how you slice it, as David Rothkopf explains, the Iran strikes illustrate the Trump administration's incompetence. Ron Kampeas contrasts Joe Biden's and Donald Trump's responses to Israeli strikes against Iran and asks the question on all of our minds: Will Trump come to Israel's defense as Joe Biden did? The answer is not reassuring.
But was Israel's military strike a good idea? We don't know yet. Israel has inflicted much damage, but we don't know how much of Iran's nuclear program remains in place.
We will never know if diplomacy could have succeeded had Israel not attacked. For years, policymakers have argued the pros and cons of military action to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Presidents Obama and Biden repeatedly left the military option on the table. The question is whether this was the time to exercise the option. It is too early to make a judgment.
Former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid, currently opposition leader, makes a strong case for Israel's strikes. Michael Koplow describes four key changes that influenced the timing of Israel's attack on Iran.
Arms control expert Kelsey Davenport makes a strong case that Israel’s strike may have pulled Iran from the threshold of nuclear weapons, "but only slightly and likely temporarily. In the long term, Israel’s attack increases the proliferation risk and makes a nuclear armed Iran more likely." She separately notes that lack of damage thus far to the Fordow enrichment facility.
Barak Ravid reports that whether Israel's attack turns out to be a success or a dangerous mistake might hinge on whether Israel can destroy Fordow, and whether it can might depend on whether Trump provides assistance to Israel.
Iran can never be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon. The Trump administration must commit not only to helping Israel defend against retaliatory strikes from Iran but to ensuring that Israel can destroy Iranian nuclear facilities buried deep underground.
The risk of regional conflagration is minimal. Most of the countries in the region that condemned Israel's attack needed to check that box. That's all they'll do. Behind closed doors, they are not unhappy that Israel is weakening their common enemy.
Readers of this newsletter know that I have supported diplomacy with Iran as the best path to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Israel decided to attack Iran for understandable reasons that we may or may not agree with.
But unless Superman is available to reverse the spin of the Earth and reverse time, that ship has sailed. We must now manage the situation to the best outcome possible, and that means strongly supporting Israel's actions against Iran.
Supporting Israel and sympathizing with Palestinians are complementary, not contradictory. A Quinnipiac poll released last week showed that when asked whether their sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians, most Democrats said the Palestinians. Sympathy with one side does not mean that you don't support the other side.
If you saw someone unexpectedly run into the middle of the street and get hit by a car, wouldn't you sympathize more with the person who was hit than the driver of the car, even though the pedestrian was at fault and that the driver was legally in the right?
The poll did not give respondents the option of answering that they sympathized with both sides. The poll did not ask any follow-up questions about how their sympathies affect their policy choices or how strongly they care about this issue.
We do know that Democrats in Congress are more supportive of Israel than Republicans in Congress. The votes in Congress prove it. I detailed the votes in my post Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel, which includes a more detailed analysis of polls like this Quinnipac Poll.
Corrections. I'm entitled to my own opinions but not to my own facts, so I appreciate it when readers bring errors to my attention. No one pointed out any substantive errors in last week's newsletter. There was one inconsequential typo.
In Case You Missed It:
1) Yesterday's New York Times editorial on antisemitism is mandatory reading. The Nexus Project urged Trump and all elected officials to take responsible action to combat antisemitism.
2) Haaretz: Sanctioning far-right Israeli ministers is the opposite of moral confusion.
3) U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said that the U.S. is no longer pursuing the goal of a Palestinian state in all or part of the West Bank. Dan Perry explains that if the U.S. abandons a two-state solution, Israel will be forced to face existential questions with no good answers.
4) If you've read Dan Perry's article and you have questions about the viability of a two-state solution, read or watch Ezra Klein's interview with former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
5) Tom Friedman: This Israeli government is a danger to Jews everywhere.
6) The Trump administration instructed the U.S. Embassy in Israel to boycott this year's Pride parade in Tel Aviv and other Pride activities in Israel. (They wound up being canceled because of the Iran situation.)
7) Commanders for Israel's Security "categorically rejects the notion that Jews in the diaspora must remain silent on matters concerning Israel."
8) Nora Berman: Greta Thunberg's Gaza flotilla was never going to help Palestinians.
9) A former Israeli hostage: It's not our job to take revenge on our enemies.
10) Amb. Alan Solomont's testimony to the Special Commission on Combating Antisemitism of Massachusetts. If you want to understand the state of antisemitism today, read this.
11) Jeremy Ben-Ami: 1938, Vienna, Antisemitism, and Palestine.
12) Daniel Bral: Israel fatigue.
13) Trump said that he would restore the names of all Army bases that were named for Confederate generals but were ordered changed by Congress in the waning days of his first administration. First he pardoned violent insurrectionists. Now he's honoring them.
14) Yesterday, Melissa Hortman, the top Democratic lawmaker in the Minnesota state house of Representatives, was murdered, along with her husband, in an act of targeted political violence. A state senator and his wife were injured by the same perpetrator. Don't let Trump get away with condemning political violence when he pardons and honors those who engage in political violence.
15) Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) explains that Trump is right about one thing: We should scrap the debt ceiling once and for all.
Social Post of the Week. Zach Margs on Greta Thunberg.
Thread of the Week. Brian Wilson's peers on him. (It's one Tweet but as you'll see, it's really kind of a thread.)
Video Clips of the Week. John Belushi & Dan Aykroyd take Brian Wilson surfing in 1976 and Trump's chief enemy: stairs (courtesy of Stephen Colbert).
Vintage Video Clips From The Week the Music Died: We lost two icons last week: Sly Stone and Brian Wilson. Both influenced generations of musicians.
Sly & The Family Stone - Thank You (Falettinme Be Mice Elf Again)--Live 1969
Beach Boys--Live 1964 and Live 1965.
Paul McCartney says that Pet Sounds is the best pop music ever recorded and God Only Knows the best song. I think that Good Vibrations is even better. Variety agrees with me. Check them out in the studio.
Upcoming Event: Protecting Jews, Protecting Democracy. The Nexus Project invites you to join a Zoom conversation on Tuesday, June 17, at noon ET with Congressional Jewish Caucus Co-Chair Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-NY), Civil Rights Strategist Eric Ward, and former U.S. Special Envoy for Monitoring and Combating Antisemitism Hannah Rosenthal. Register via this link.
For those new to this newsletter. This is the newsletter even Republicans have to read and the original home of the viral and beloved Top Ten Signs You're At a Republican Seder (yes, I wrote it). If someone forwarded this newsletter to you, why not subscribe and get it in your inbox every Sunday? Just click here--it's free.
I periodically update my posts on the IHRA definition of antisemitism and on why Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel and antisemitism. My definition of "pro-Israel" is here (it's a work in progress, as am I).
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