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November 24, 2024
Five Key Takeaways:
1) It's been 415 days since October 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists infiltrated Israel on Simchat Torah and murdered 1,200 people (including 44 Americans). More Jews were murdered on that day than on any day since the Holocaust. Hamas wounded 3,300 and took 251 hostage during a day of brutal savagery and sexual violence; 101 hostages, many dead, some raped and possibly pregnant, remain captive in Gaza.
2) The 101 remaining hostages include seven Americans, four probably alive: Keith Siegal, Omer Neutra, Edan Alexander, Sagui Dekel-Chen, Itay Chen, Judi Weinstein Haggai, and Gad Haggai. They will not have a happy Thanksgiving. Many people won't.
3) The Senate, including a majority of Democrats, voted down three Joint Resolutions of Disapproval that called for blocking the sale of certain specific weapons to Israel. Even had the resolutions passed, nothing would have been blocked. The Biden administration opposed these symbolic votes but the Democrats who supported the resolutions are not anti-Israel; it's not as if they voted to cut aid to Israel by 30% or blocked emergency aid to Israel for six months, which Republicans did when it mattered. The message the minority of Democrats sent is important to understand even if you, like me, would not have voted for these resolutions.
4) The Biden administration condemned the ICC's issuance of arrest warrants for Israeli leaders and vetoed a UN Security Resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza because it was not conditioned on release of the hostages and would have left Hamas in power.
5) 71% of Jewish voters voted for Kamala Harris. No credible poll shows otherwise.
Read to the end for corrections, what you may have missed last week, fun stuff, and upcoming events.
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Hi Steve,
On Wednesday, the Senate rejected three Joint Resolutions of Disapproval (JRDs) proffered by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Even if these resolutions had passed, they would not have blocked any aid to Israel for procedural reasons. These were symbolic but under Senate rules they could not be prevented from coming to the floor for votes.
S.J.Res.111 called for blocking the sale of 120mm tank rounds to Israel. S.J.Res.113 called for blocking the sale of 120mm high-explosive mortar rounds to Israel. S.J.Res.115 called for blocking the sale of Joint Direct Attack Munitions, commonly known as JDAMs or precision-guided munitions, to Israel.
No other offensive weapons systems were included in these resolutions. No defensive weapons were included. It was not anywhere close to an arms embargo.
The Biden administration opposed these resolutions, pointing out that Israel has made progress on providing humanitarian aid in Gaza, "that the weapons in question are essential for Israel’s defense and won’t be delivered for another year or two, so the likelihood of them being used in this iteration of the Gaza context is very low," that with a ceasefire possible in Lebanon, "now is not the time to send a message to Israel’s adversaries that there is a break in the relationship between the United States and Israel. It actually only encourages Israel’s adversaries to be more obstinate and sends a terrible message to Iran, as Iran considers retaliation against Israel," and that distinguishing between offensive and defensive weapons is "a false concept. You can’t retrieve hostages or get to a rocket launcher with an Iron Dome missile.”
A majority of Senate Democrats rejected all three resolutions by similar margins. The Senate vote on 111 was 79 against, 18 in favor, one voting present, and two not voting. The vote on 113 was 78-19-1-2. The vote on 115 was 80-17-1-2. All votes in favor were cast by Democrats and the same 17 voted in favor of all three resolutions.
To understand why these Democrats voted for a resolution opposing sales of these particular weapons systems to Israel that would not have blocked those sales even if the resolutions had passed, we must first go back to basics.
The U.S.-Israel relationship is based on shared strategic interests and shared values. The problem with grounding the relationship solely on shared strategic interests is that strategic interests change, and no two countries have identical interests. It is absurd to think that Israel is our only ally with which we will never have different strategic interests.
For example, the U.S. and Israel both strongly oppose allowing Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. A nuclear-armed Iran is an existential threat to Israel. A nuclear-armed Iran would threaten U.S. interests but would not existentially threaten the U.S. That naturally leads to a different risk-benefit calculus when determining the best tactics and strategies to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.
Shared values are eternal and do not depend on the ebbs and flows of geopolitics. The hard truth is that what is changing is not Democratic views regarding these values. What is changing is that Israel's government is moving away from those shared values. We must differentiate between the State of Israel and the government of Israel. Opposition to Netanyahu and his government is not necessarily anti-Israel, just as opposition to Trump and his government (or Biden and his, for that matter) is not necessarily unAmerican.
Israel is neither a Platonic ideal nor the Israel of Leon Uris's Exodus. It is a real country with real flaws, as is every country. Israel should not be held to a double standard but that cuts both ways--Israel alone is not and should not be exempt from criticism, even harsh criticism when merited.
The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is real. Some of it was unavoidable. But not all of it. Some of us would prefer that the U.S. look the other way. It's not comfortable to consider whether Israel can or should be doing more to facilitate humanitarian aid into Gaza.
Creeping annexation (soon to become galloping annexation if Smotrich and Ben-Gvir get their way) and settler violence are real, contrary to our shared values, and would, writes Dr. Col. (ret.) Shaul Arieli, destroy Israel's future and its soul if left unchecked.
At this point, these problems are not inherent in Israel as a state but in Israel's current government, much as (we hope) the U.S. as a country is not identical to the president we just elected.
It's not surprising that no Republicans voted for these resolutions. Why would they? If they don't speak against Trump's government they certainly are not going to have a problem with Netanyahu's government. But because the Democratic Party continues to share the values that underlie the U.S.-Israel relationship, Democrats will continue to struggle with how to address the problems with Netanyahu's government.
The Senators who voted for the resolutions are not anti-Israel. It is easy to fall into the trap of assigning labels to avoid nuance. The Senators who voted for these resolutions knew that they were casting a vote that would have no practical impact. They wanted to send a message--without blocking the sale of a single bullet--that Israel's current government is diverging from our shared values. They saw these resolutions as the perfect vehicles for doing so.
A poll conducted from October 30 to November 5 found that 62% of Jewish Americans believe that the U.S. should "continue providing Israel with defensive weapons like anti-ballistic missile systems, but withhold American shipments of offensive weapons like 2,000-pound bombs until Prime Minister Netanyahu agrees to an American proposal for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for a release of the Israeli hostages."
Maybe most Jewish Americans are anti-Israel. It is more likely, since polling repeatedly shows that most Jewish Americans feel emotionally attached to Israel, that they differentiate between supporting Israel's safety and security and blindly supporting actions inconsistent with our shared values.
If most Jewish Americans favor withholding certain offensive weapons, that does not mean that withholding certain offensive weapons is the right policy. But it should make us cautious about calling anyone who agrees with the majority of Jews "anti-Israel."
Read Sen. Dick Durbin's (D-IL) statement and watch Sen. Jon Ossoff's (D-GA) speech. You don't have to agree with every word--I don't--to see that their positions are not the caricatures that our Republican friends would have us believe.
I am generally disdainful of legislators who vote "present." They are there to make decisions, not let legislation pass or fail because they cannot make up their minds or are afraid of offending someone.
But on purely symbolic resolutions like these that were certain to fail anyway and that would have made no practical difference if they passed, where the only reason to vote yes or no was to send a message, voting "present"' is a message as valid as any other.
Newly re-elected Sen. Tammy Baldwin's (D-WI) statement explaining her decision to vote "present" conveys the ambivalence many are struggling with. I would have voted against these resolutions or present. But I don't consider a vote for these resolutions to be anti-Israel.
Unlike this minority of Democrats, Republicans have voted to cut and delay aid to Israel. On September 29, 2023, 198 House Republicans — 90% — drafted, brought to the floor, and voted for legislation that included cutting aid to Israel by 30%, which would have violated our Memorandum of Understanding with Israel. Democrats unanimously opposed it and it failed despite overwhelming GOP support.
Republicans blocked President Biden's urgent request for $14 billion in emergency aid to Israel for six months.
Remember that JD Vance guy? I don't know what became of him--I haven't heard from him since the election--but Vance voted against the package that included $14 billion in emergency aid to Israel twice, on February 13 when it could have passed and on April 23 on final passage.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Trump's choice for Secretary of State, voted against the emergency aid package to Israel on February 13, 2024. On final passage in April, Rubio again voted against aid to Israel.
Vance and Rubio were among the Republican minority who voted against emergency aid to Israel twice, just as the Democrats who voted for the resolutions were in the minority of Democrats. But Vance and Rubio voted against the actual emergency aid bill to Israel, not in favor of some resolutions whose passage or failure made no difference. The other difference is that Vance is the next Vice President of the United States and Rubio is the next Secretary of State.
Corrections. I'm entitled to my own opinions but not to my own facts, so I appreciate it when readers bring errors to my attention. No one pointed out any errors in last week's newsletter, so I guess it was perfect.
In Case You Missed It:
1) Thinking of signing up for Bluesky and not sure who to follow? Start with these essential Jewish American voices for democracy and the commentators on Jewsky.
2) President Biden said that "the ICC issuance of arrest warrants against Israeli leaders is outrageous." Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) condemned and rejected the ICC's decision.
3) The Biden administration vetoed a UN Security Council resolution because its call for a ceasefire in Gaza was not conditioned on release of the hostages and because it would have left Hamas in power.
4) Franklin Foer: Trump is appointing the most antisemitic Cabinet in decades.
5) National Security Action: Pete Hegseth is uniquely unqualified to lead the U.S. military.
6) A resolution condemning the global rise in antisemitism passed the House with only 21 dissenting votes; 18 of the 21 were Republicans. You would not have missed this vote if 18 of the 21 were Democrats--our Republican friends would have made sure of it.
7) Dove Kent: Project Esther is the wrong way to fight antisemitism.
8) Do you think you know why Trump won? Jay Michaelson writes that just about every interpretation of why Trump won is wrong.
9) Jewish voters supported Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by 45 points nationally (71-26) and by 52 points in Pennsylvania (75-23). Read the polling analysis, topline polling results, national crosstabs, and Pennsylvania crosstabs. You can evaluate other polls by looking at whether the questions themselves are biased and whether the methodology is sound. This memo describes the methodological challenges of polling Jewish voters. Any poll that does not meet these challenges or does not disclose enough information about its methodology for you to evaluate whether it met those challenges is a poll you can disregard. The polls showing that Trump did well among Jewish voters fail to meet the requisite standards. Don't take my word for it. Check for yourself.
On The Lighter Side:
One of the longest laughs ever recorded from a studio audience on American television, followed by one of the best spontaneous punch lines.
A master class in why the Oxford comma matters.
David Bowie's impression of Mick Jagger.
The Rolling Stones: Star Star.
For those new to this newsletter. This is the newsletter even Republicans have to read and the original home of the viral and beloved Top Ten Signs You're At a Republican Seder (yes, I wrote it). If someone forwarded this newsletter to you, why not subscribe and get it in your inbox every Sunday? Just click here--it's free.
I periodically update my posts on why Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel and antisemitism and on the IHRA definition of antisemitism. My definition of "pro-Israel" is here (it's a work in progress, as am I).
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