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An analysis of the 2016 elections and the significance for Iowa business
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2016 Election Recap
See ABI President Mike Ralston and Nicole Crain, senior vice president, Public Policy, provide insight on the 2016 Election results.
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Near perfect night for ABI's IIPAC
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Tuesday's election saw a strong contingent of pro-business candidates elected to the Iowa Legislature, including 77 of the 80 IIPAC-endorsed Friend of Iowa Business candidates. All 16 of the Friend of Iowa Business candidates in the Senate were successful.
Going into election night, no one was sure what would happen at the presidential and federal levels, given all of the late October surprises. The focus in Iowa was on a few state house races and whether the control in the Iowa Senate would tip to the Republicans after the last two cycles left the Republicans two votes short of a majority. As the dust settles this morning, it is clear that voters drove forward a wave of Republican change, significantly shifting the balance of power in Iowa and at the federal level.
In the Iowa House, retirements left 14 open seats up for grabs. Republicans had 47 seats and Democrats had 43 going into the night. Republicans were able to retain their majority by holding all incumbents, defeating one Democrat incumbent and picking up one Democrat open seat, which previously belonged to Nancy Dunkel (D-Dyersville). As with any election, there were a few surprises, but the overall outcome leaves Republicans with a 59-41 majority going into the 2017 legislative session, defying many who thought the Republicans would lose a few House seats.
The Senate Republican candidates also swept the Democrat incumbents by winning six seats. The Republicans protected all of their seats making the current count in the Iowa Senate 29-19-1. The new majority includes one Independent and one vacant seat due to the death of Sen. Joe Seng. A special election will take place Dec. 27 to determine the outcome of that seat. The two biggest surprises of the evening were when 34-year Statehouse veteran Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal (D-Council Bluffs) and Tom Courtney (D-Burlington) a friend of labor were defeated by Republican challengers.
Despite somewhat unpredictable finishes in a number of races, IIPAC had another amazing year. All of the results are considered unofficial until the final vote canvasses. If current outcomes hold, 100 percent of the candidates who received IIPAC's Friend of Iowa Business endorsement in the Senate and 95 percent of the endorsed candidates in the House were victorious.
Thank you to everyone who made a personal investment in IIPAC to help us speak with a loud and unified voice during the 2016 Elections.
HIGHLIGHTED RACES:
State Senate Races
8-Dan Dawson (R-Council Bluffs):
In a contest where significant campaign resources were sunk into the race on both sides, Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, who has served in the Iowa Senate since 1985 and is currently president of the National Council of State Legislators, lost by almost 2,000 votes to challenger Dan Dawson, an 18-year military veteran.
IIPAC WIN!
26 - Waylon Brown (R- St. Ansgar): In a district heavy with independent voters, IIPAC-endorsed challenger Waylon Brown defeated two-term incumbent Sen. Mary Jo Wilhelm of Cresco with 62% of the vote.
IIPAC WIN! 28 - Mike Breitbach (R-Strawberry Point):
Incumbent Rep. Michael Breitbach, businessman and financial advisor, defeated challengers Jan Heikes, a candidate with a strong mental health and social work background, and Troy Hageman, a Libertarian candidate. The Iowans for Jobs initiative conducted a print media campaign in this race.
30 - Jeff Danielson (D-Cedar Falls):
Incumbent Sen. Jeff Danielson, a firefighter, handily defeated challenger Bonnie Sadler, running an independent-minded campaign in a district that looked much tighter on paper.
IIPAC WIN! 32 - Craig Johnson (R-Independence): A non-profit leader and former Iowa House candidate defeated incumbent Sen. Brian Schoenjahn with almost 60% of the vote. The Iowans for Jobs initiative purchased newspaper ads in support of Craig Johnson and conducted a digital media campaign educating voters about the candidates in the district.
34 - Liz Mathis (D-Robins):
Incumbent senator and former local TV news journalist Liz Mathis, who served as chair of the Senate Human Resources Committee, defeated Republican challenger Rene Gadelha in a competitive district with a Republican voter registration advantage which includes parts of Cedar Rapids.
36 - Jeff Edler (D-State Center):
In another competitive district, Jeff Edler, farmer and small businessman, defeated two-term incumbent and Marshall County Deputy Sheriff, Sen. Steve Sodders, by a large margin.
44 - Tom Greene (R-Burlington):
In what possibly should be classified as the sleeper race of this cycle, Tom Greene, pharmacist from Burlington, defeated long-time Sen. Tom Courtney and friend of labor by more than 1,500 votes.
IIPAC WIN! 46 - Mark Lofgren (R-Muscatine):
Former state legislator and congressional candidate unseated first-term Sen. Chris Brase.
The Iowans for Jobs initiative conducted a digital media campaign educating voters about Mark Lofgren. ABI's PAC also purchased newspaper ads in this district.
IIPAC WIN! 48 - Dan Zumbach (R-Ryan):
First term senator and farmer Rep. Dan Zumbach was re-elected to the Iowa Senate, against Scott Peterson.
The Iowans for Jobs initiative purchased newspaper ads in support of Sen. Zumbach.
State House Districts
4 - Skyler Wheeer (R-Sioux Center):
Northwestern College graduate and Staples Promotional Products employee Skyler Wheeler staved off an independent challenge by Jeff VanDerWerff. VanDerWerff is a Northwestern College professor and was endorsed by IIPAC. This was an open seat.
6 - Jim Carlin (R-Sioux City):
Jim Carlin a Sioux City attorney easily defeated Perla Alarcon-Flory in the solid Republican seat vacated by Rep. Ron Jorgensen's retirement.
IIPAC WIN! 13 - Chris Hall (D-Sioux City):
Three-term incumbent and IIPAC Friend of Iowa Business Rep. Chris Hall defeated challenger Shaun Broyhill.
IIPAC WIN! 16 - Mary Ann Hanusa (R-Council Bluffs):
House Economic Growth Committee Chairwoman Rep. Mary Ann Hanusa won her race against Democratic challenger Steve Gorman.
26 - Scott Ourth (D-Indianola):
Although at a voter registration disadvantage, incumbent Rep. Scott Ourth defeated challenger Rebel Snodgrass in the House district that encompasses Indianola and rural Warren County.
IIPAC WIN!
30 - Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant): Recently back from deployment to South Korea, Rep. Zach Nunn, an Iowa Air National Guard Major and Air Force veteran, won this re-election re-match against former Rep. Joe Riding.
IIPAC WIN!
43 - Chris Hagenow (R-Windsor Heights): In one of the most watched House races, Majority Leader Chris Hagenow won by 539 votes - a wider margin than many expected - against challenger Jennifer Konfrst.
IIPAC WIN!
42 - Peter Cownie (R-West Des Moines): Rep. Peter Cownie, chairman of the House Commerce Committee, defeated Democrat challenger Claire Celsi using a large war-chest and tough ads in this suburban district.
IIPAC WIN!
51 - Jane Bloomingdale (R-Northwood): In a very competitive district previously represented by gas tax proponent Rep. Josh Byrnes (R-Osage), Northwood Mayor Jane Bloomingdale clenched this open seat over Democrat challenger Tim Hejhal.
IIPAC WIN! 52 - Todd Prichard (D-Charles City):
Rep. Todd Prichard won re-election to the Iowa House and currently serves as an assistant House Democrat leader. He defeated challenger Stacie Stokes.
53 - Sharon Steckman (D-Mason City):
In a district with a significant Democrat registration advantage, Steckman won re-election to the Iowa House, defeating the only IIPAC endorsed House challenger, Barb Hovland.
56 - Kristi Hager (R-Waukon):
Small business owner and philanthropist Kristi Hager defeated incumbent Rep. Patti Ruff - a Friend of Iowa Business candidate, in a hard fought race in a district where Republicans have the voter registration advantage.
IIPAC WIN! 58 - Andy McKean (R-Anamosa):
This open seat vacated by Brian Moore looked to be a tough one for Republicans to retain, but former state legislator and retired attorney Andy McKean beat Democrat Jessica Kean by over 2,700 votes.
IIPAC WIN! 60 - Walt Rogers (R-Cedar Falls):
IIPAC-endorsed incumbent Rep. Walt Rogers defeated challenger Gary Kroeger with 58.3 percent of the vote to retain his seat.
IIPAC WIN!
67 - Ashley Hinson (R-Marion): Ashley Hinson, a former local news anchor, won the seat vacated by former Speaker of the House Kraig Paulsen, defeating Cedar Rapids attorney Mark Seidl.
IIPAC WIN!
68 - Ken Rizer (R-Cedar Rapids): Incumbent Rep. Ken Rizer, a veteran Air Force pilot and former Goodwill executive, won re-election with 54% of the vote over education-focused candidate Molly Donahue, despite a built-in voter registration advantage among Democrats.
IIPAC WIN! 77 - Amy Nielsen (D-North Liberty):
The current mayor of North Liberty maintained House District 77 for the Democrats after the retirement of Rep. Sally Stutsman.
IIPAC WIN!
88 - Dave Kerr (R-Morning Sun): Dave Kerr was nominated in a district nominating convention after House Ways and Means Committee Chair Tom Sands (R-Wapello) made a post-primary retirement announcement. Kerr defeated Ryan Drew of Burlington.
IIPAC WIN! 91 - Gary Carlson (R-Muscatine):
Muscatine businessman Rep. Gary Carlson won re-election to the Iowa House. ABI's PAC also purchased newspaper ads in this district.
IIPAC WIN! 92 - Ross Paustian (R-Walcott):
Rep. Ross Paustian has faced tough presidential election year challenges, but this year Paustian easily defeated a challenge by Ken Krumwiede a former school board vice president. ABI's PAC purchased newspaper ads in this district.
IIPAC WIN! 95 - Louis Zumbach (R-Coggon):
This eastern Iowa toss-up district tilted toward the Republican Tuesday night. Friend of Iowa Business candidate, Zumbach, won by over 2,800 votes.
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Implications of nationwide congressional races
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The top news of the night at the federal level was the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States. Republicans also maintained control of the Senate and Congress.
In Iowa, voters retained all five incumbent members of the state's federal delegation who were on the ballot. U.S. Sen. Charles Grassley was elected to a seventh term. Rep. Rod Blum (R-01), Rep. Dave Loebsack (D-02), Rep. David Young (R-03) and Rep. Steve King (R-03) were all re-elected as well.
On the federal level, 76.5 percent of the candidates endorsed by ABI partner BIPAC were successful this year. Click here for more federal analysis from BIPAC.
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