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Welcome to the Newsletter of the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung's Latin American Network for Inclusive Security

Since 2019 the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung has promoted the Inclusive Security Network within the framework of its regional security project in Latin America.

During these years the Network published 19 issues of this Newsletter and organized four congresses on security in the region.

Building on this work and based on the experience that FES has accumulated over more than 15 years analyzing these matters, the project will now be renamed the Regional Center on Peace and Security [Centro Regional sobre Paz y Seguridad].

This new name responds to a strategic change that the Foundation is implementing at a global level in order to deepen the analysis, proposals and recommendations for public policy and political advocacy. In this new phase, the Newsletter will continue to be the main communication channel with partners and allies in the region.

Catalina Niño (coordinator of the Regional Center on Peace and Security) and Mariano Aguirre (advisor of the Regional Center on Peace and Security and Newsletter editor)

Editorial

Donald Trump's victory in the most recent U.S. elections generates strong concern in political, economic and social circles worldwide. Particularly about Latin America, the former and future Republican president is not particularly interested. But there are exceptions: the relationship with Mexico due to migration, organized crime, the U.S. industries operating there, and the president-elect's announcement that he will raise tariffs on imports from Mexico and other countries in the region; and Central America to curb its migrants. Despite this disinterest, his government team is expected to raise the prominence of this region among its priorities.

The appointment of Marco Rubio, Republican senator from Florida to the post of Secretary of State in the future Trump Administration will encourage Washington to pay more attention to Colombia, Venezuela and possibly Brazil, and not only to Mexico and Central America. Rubio responds to his electoral support with a strong Cuban and Venezuelan component. From his relevant position leading foreign policy, it is very likely that he will carry out a militant policy -as he has done in the Senate- against the governments of Havana and Caracas, while deepening the differences and distances with President Gustavo Petro. While Trump and Argentine President Javier Milei have already forged an alliance against the UN and the left, it remains to be seen how Rubio will relate to Lula da Silva's government in Brazil.

The presence of Elon Musk in a role of super adviser to Trump indicates, on the other hand, that new tensions will open up (as happened recently between this entrepreneur and Brazil) about the scope and power of the high-tech sector, contracts with U.S. defense and space technology companies, and the sovereignty of third countries.

On security, a serious risk for Latin America is that Trump and his ideologues, such as Stephen Miller, insist that they will organize mass arrests and deportations of illegal immigrants executed by the military. This would be a decision in the hands of the Secretary of Defense.

Also, of crucial importance for this region will be the directives that the Secretary of Defense will decide for the Pentagon. It is foreseeable that the Southern Command will have more authority to orient, align and reinforce Latin American armed forces in the US confrontation with China for mineral resources, food and investments. At the same time, the anti-democratic tendencies emerging in the Trump Administration may forge dangerous alliances with governments and politicians of the same orientation in the region.

To the traditional debates and work in Latin America on the relationship between civilians and the military, and the role of the latter with the police forces and in key sectors of the economy, will now be added the arrival of Trump and his officials to the government with a project of radical change. This will be a complicated influence that will force us to think of creative ways to defend security anchored in democratic principles.

Mariano Aguirre

Advisor

Latin American Network for Inclusive Security

What can we expect from the Trump 2.0 administration's policies towards Latin America

Maureen Meyer of the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA) explores the new Trump Administration's possible priorities for Latin America and what policies and practices Latin American and U.S. civil societies should use in the years ahead.

Zone of Peace in South America

Augusto Varas proposes to materialize the long-declared but never achieved desire to establish South America as a Zone of Peace. To this end, it is essential to take into consideration the political-strategic developments at the global and regional levels, the international geopolitical reconfiguration, and the political, economic and social situation of the region.

Donald Trump's second term will be inspired by Project 2025, developed by the Heritage Foundation and detailed in Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise. The authoritarian tactics prescribed therein include attacking public education, dismantling the fight against climate change, and curtailing the rights of women, LGTBIQ, racialized people, migrants and workers. The project is already underway in Argentina.

The US is going to pay attention to Latin America. Several experts analyze the outcome of the elections in the U.S. from the point of view of the region in this RELEU seminar. WOLA discusses its possible impact on the democratic trajectory and relations with authoritarian governments in the region, as well as migration policy, drug policy, aid and security programs, and cooperation with Mexico.

The relationship with Mexico, intense and marked by key issues such as migration, the border, trade and organized crime, may take on negative dimensions for this country in terms of trade, among others.

In response, the director of the Inter-American Dialogue, Rebeca Bill Chávez, argues that the United States should continue to focus on economic cooperation, development and investment with the region. A possible human rights-based agenda is detailed here. In any case, immigration and control policies will be key.

The latest issue of the newsletter of the think-tank Centro Brasileiro de Relações Internacionais (CEBRI) addresses the rise of the far-right from various perspectives, such as scientific denialism and links to the crisis of democracy.

Regarding the far right in Latin America, the book The Rise of the Radical Right in the Global South, edited by Rosana Pinheiro-Machado and Tatiana Vargas-Maia, is now available. This academic research provides a comprehensive and pioneering framework for understanding the emergence and consolidation of the various radical right movements in the countries of the Global South in the 21st century.

The most recent BRICS summit showed the willingness of several medium-sized countries to overcome the prevailing trade and financial architecture and the Russian and Chinese aspirations for the global South. The Regional Coordination of Economic and Social Research (CRIES) analyzes the transition of global power and its impact on Latin America, the regional agenda, and the policies of major and middle powers towards the region.

La irrupción impetuosa del Sur Global, coordinated by Juan Gabriel Tokatlian and Federico Merke, explores the concept and place of Latin America in this changing order. The texts analyze the emergence of the South from different complementary angles: geopolitics, trade, climate change, the place of Latin America and the rivalry between China and the U.S.

The context of geopolitical change, proliferation of armed conflicts and attacks on multilateralism calls for strengthening peace-building mechanisms and restoring respect for international law. This is also what the UN Secretary General's New Agenda for Peace calls for. Understanding its strengths and weaknesses in terms of disarmament and the risks of new technologies applied to warfare is key in a context of warmongering dynamics, the return of war in Europe and the resurgence of conflicts in the Middle East.

The Fundación Seminario de Investigación para la Paz (Spain) has explored the role of the armed forces in the culture of peace and the means for conflict prevention and resolution, with a focus on mediation for peace, as well as the Gaza war and its regional and global projections. In the publication Nuevo tiempo de actuar para la paz, several authors examine the systemic crisis of peace and security, the role of the United Nations and international cooperation.

According to the results of the project Mano Dura y erosión democrática en América Latina (Iron fist and democratic erosion in Latin America), the citizens of Ecuador, Costa Rica, Chile and Uruguay have a high perception of fear and institutional orphanhood and are open to the “iron fist” against insecurity. In Brazil, the state of São Paulo has focused on community policing and crime prevention, while Rio de Janeiro has relied on militarized interventions in favelas and high-crime areas.

An examination of Chile's legislative response to crime shows a bias in the laws toward proposals that emphasize control and punishment, relegating areas such as criminal investigation and effective oversight of police institutions, preventive measures, and social policies to reduce inequality.

Indeed, in the book Las Constituciones del miedo, Augusto Varas argues that fear and emotions were key in the formulation and rejection of the two most recent constitutional proposals in the country.

Caribbean countries, from Trinidad and Tobago to the Bahamas, are increasingly affected by violence with guns smuggled from the United States. Caribbean countries, which do not manufacture these weapons or their ammunition, account for half of the ten countries in the world with the highest murder rates.

Mexico's new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, appears to have introduced some changes in the fight against organized crime without formally renouncing her predecessor's approach. For the moment, the results are uncertain.

The post-election crisis in Venezuela generates dilemmas about the available options for external actors. One of its manifestations is migration, which could increase. The Atlantic Council analyzes the policies adopted by the six main receiving countries regarding Venezuelan migrants, and makes recommendations for more effective coordination, including with the US.

The "total peace" policy of Gustavo Petro's government is characterized by advances and setbacks in its first two years. Several FES Colombia analyses examine the situation in the Pacific, the Caribbean, possible prospective peace scenarios, and the role of environmental governance in peace building.

The Clan del Golfo (Gulf Clan) is today the largest and most influential organized armed group. The Ideas for Peace Foundation points to it as the main obstacle to total peace and makes recommendations for a negotiating table, as does the International Crisis Group.

The lack of coordination between and within the institutions with responsibilities in the implementation of the 2016 FARC Agreement is a key implementation challenge, along with the fragmentation of actors and the difficulty of prioritizing this commitment in the midst of an uncertain security strategy.

Two cases in Colombia on ethical responsibility in scientific research show how academic research can empower local peacebuilding partners, and how to maintain ethical standards in the face of political pressure (or resign if it becomes impossible).

On September 30, the UN Security Council approved Resolution 2751, which extends for one year the authorization of the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS). The intention to transform the mission into a peacekeeping mission, something demanded by different actors and discussed in the Security Council, has not prospered.

With a recent transition in power, Haiti continues to experience serious criminal gang violence and high inflation. At least 3,661 people have been killed in the first half of the year and half of the population suffers from acute food insecurity.

Ideas audaces sobre crimen organizado (Bold Ideas on Organized Crime) is a video series produced by FES on the present and future of organized crime in Latin America. The first interviewee, Juan Albarracín, proposes to move away from the usual responses of militarization and “iron fist”. The second one, Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, talks about how drug trafficking is only one part of organized crime, and also about the importance of having a gender perspective when it comes to understanding and dealing with this phenomenon. Likewise, it is necessary to reimagine the drug war as the coca cultivation rises in Central America.

To understand the dynamics of organized crime and illicit economies in the Amazonian triple frontier (Brazil, Colombia and Peru) it is fundamental to understand the role as nodes played by urban areas in the region. The role of women in drug trafficking and corruption in Latin America is also an emerging concern.

Militarism and the climate crisis are two interconnected realities that contribute to the destruction of the planet, according to a new report by the Women International League for Peace and Freedom (WILPF). Corporación Humanas presented at COP16 how women have contributed to the conservation of nature and peace building through their ancestral practices.

Latin America is key to the global supply chains of strategic resources such as copper, which is fundamental to the U.S. economy and energy security. While the US has a high demand but produces 5% of the global total, Latin America accounts for 46% of production, especially in Chile and Peru.

Other products are less obvious but equally relevant, as shown by the illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing by Chinese vessels along the Pacific coast of South America.

In a new Chatham House report, Christopher Sabatini and Bruno Binetti explore how meaningful and inclusive dialogue can help secure Peru's role in global supply chains, State capacity, mining, and community relations.

U.S. photographer Robert Nickelsberg has presented a new updated edition of his book Legacy of Lies. El Salvador 1981-1984. The volume illustrates the war during those years, the flight of Salvadorans to the U.S., and the continuing impact of U.S. policies on the country to this day.

· The Latin American Risk Report, edited by James Bosworth, provides up-to-date analysis of political developments in the region. Here you can browse the database and subscribe to the newsletters.

· The Latin America Working Group has published the Fall 2024 issue of The Advocate which examines the state of human rights in the hemisphere.