April 20, 2026

When Markets Are Uncertain,

Discipline Matters

At times like this, markets can feel unsettled. Ongoing geopolitical tensions involving Iran, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, elevated energy prices, and inflation still near 3% have contributed to increased volatility. Headlines are moving quickly—and when they do, it’s natural for investors to feel uneasy.

But periods like this are not unusual.

Recently, Bill Gurley, Managing Partner at Benchmark, made an observation that feels particularly relevant today, “markets tend to move quickly from half empty to half full.” In other words, sentiment often shifts far faster than underlying fundamentals.

That dynamic is playing out again.

What We’re Seeing Beneath the Surface

On March 30th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 45,057—approximately 11% below its February high of 50,512. Since then, markets have recovered a meaningful portion of those losses.

At the index level, things may appear relatively stable. But beneath the surface, there has been significantly more movement. During the early phase of recent geopolitical tensions, while the S&P 500 declined modestly, a large percentage of individual stocks fell much more sharply—many by double digits.

This type of divergence is important. It tells us that repositioning is happening—even when headline indices don’t fully reflect it.

What Tends to Matter Over Time

Despite near-term volatility, corporate earnings—the primary driver of long-term equity values—remain resilient. In many cases, forward expectations continue to improve.

Periods like this reinforce the importance of portfolio structure.

Rather than relying solely on broad market exposure, we believe there is value in selectively owning high-quality companies—businesses with durable earnings, strong balance sheets, and experienced management teams.

Historically, these companies have been better positioned to navigate uncertain environments.

How We Think About Portfolio Positioning

Most investors share common objectives: preserve capital, grow wealth steadily, and maintain purchasing power.

We believe a balanced approach supports these goals. That often includes:

• High-quality equities for long-term growth
• Gold as a potential hedge against inflation and currency risk
• Short-term U.S. Treasuries for stability, liquidity, and income

We also emphasize phasing capital into markets, rather than investing all at once. This disciplined approach helps manage timing risk and allows investors to take advantage of volatility.

Within fixed income, a laddered structure can provide consistent income while maintaining flexibility as rates evolve.

Where We Remain Thoughtful

Geopolitical risks remain elevated, particularly in areas that influence energy markets. In addition, upcoming elections and potential shifts in Federal Reserve leadership may introduce further uncertainty.

While we remain constructive over the long term, these factors reinforce the importance of avoiding overly aggressive positioning.

Maintaining a degree of liquidity—“dry powder”—allows investors to respond thoughtfully when opportunities arise.

Our Perspective

Volatility is a normal part of investing. While it can feel uncomfortable, it often creates opportunity for disciplined, long-term investors.

Maintaining perspective, focusing on fundamentals, and structuring portfolios thoughtfully can help reduce emotional decision-making—and lead to better outcomes over time.

A Thoughtful Next Step

If you’re unsure how your portfolio is positioned in today’s environment, a second perspective can be valuable.

We’re always happy to review your current allocation and share how we think about balancing risk and opportunity in periods like this.

All the best,

Bruce



Nollenberger McCullough Investment Advisors

Performance - Trust - Experience