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A study by Stanford University's Doerr School of Sustainability released on September 18 found that increased exposure to wildfire smoke could kill an additional 30,000 people in the United States per year by 2050. The conclusions of the study, which will be published in the scientific journal Nature, indicate a nearly 75% increase in wildfire smoke deaths (up from just over 41,000 deaths annually currently).
The study relies on a new wildfire smoke PM2.5 model, available as an interactive graphic, to characterize the impact of wildfire smoke on individual communities across the United States.
Analysis based on this model, alongside other data, suggests that the drastic increase in wildfire smoke-related deaths will result from an increase in the number of wildfire events. The study does not specifically indicate that exposure to the same amount of wildfire smoke is expected to be more deadly in the future, but does suggest that weather at atmospheric conditions related to climate change could increase exposure.
Though stark, the study’s findings reinforce the Wildfire Alliance’s position that improved forest management, such as mechanical thinning and prescribed fire, which can be timed with weather and wind forecasts to minimize the impact of wildfire smoke to populated areas, is a critical aspect of wildfire readiness and prevention.
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