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October 5, 2025
Key Developments and What We're Discussing Today:
- Today, October 5, marks 730 days since October 7, 2023. The Hamas-led attack on Simchat Torah resulted in 1,182 fatalities (including 44 Americans) and over 4,000 wounded. 251 hostages (210 alive, 41 dead bodies) were taken during a day of brutal savagery and sexual violence. It was the largest single massacre of Jews since the Holocaust, with more than one in every 10,000 Israelis killed, and the third overall deadliest terrorist attack in the world to date.
- The 48 remaining hostages, 25 known to be dead, 20 thought to be alive, and three of unknown status, include the bodies of two Americans: Omer Neutra and Itay Chen. It is beyond outrageous that after nearly two years, they are still enduring torture and starvation in tunnels with no outside contact. It is beyond outrageous that no hostages have been released since June.
- We should judge Trump's peace plan for Gaza on whether it results in an end to the war, the release of all remaining hostages, and a flood of humanitarian aid to Gaza.
- The Republican reaction to Trump's plan proves again that the GOP is a cult with one principle: Trump is always right.
- New polling shows a dramatic drop in support for Israel. It's not due to antisemitism. It's the result of Netanyahu's abhorrent policies and our failure to distinguish between the state of Israel and the government of Israel.
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Greetings!
October 7, 2025, is in two days. Simchat Torah is October 15. Two years. Two years too long for the hostages still in Gaza. Hamas must release them immediately. Nothing justifies Hamas's terror attack on October 7 or the taking of any hostages, let alone their continued captivity under horrendous conditions.
Our best hope is that all parties accept Trump's plan to end the Gaza War. This is far from the first time we've heard a deal was around the corner. It's almost as if Netanyahu and Hamas have a tacit agreement to take turns scuttling any prospective agreement. This time might be different.
As of this writing, Hamas's response is essentially "yes, but..." That was good enough for Trump, who ordered Israel to stop bombing Gaza.
Barak Ravid reports that "the deal now before Hamas is significantly different than the one the U.S. and a group of Arab and Muslim countries had previously agreed on, due to Netanyahu's intervention." Hence the "yes, but" response from Hamas.
Amir Tibon writes that the question for Trump is now whether to "move the plan back to its original form or stick with Netanyahu's changes and allow it to fall apart
"I still don't think we can say anything conclusive, but it looks like the President has made his choice - and if he sticks to it, then finally the longest and most terrible day, October 7, will come to an end."
Sounding a note of optimism, Ned Price writes that "Trump’s craven desire for a Nobel may, strangely, get us to the right place."
Trump pressured and humiliated Netanyahu, but this deal is in Israel's best interests. Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), who will become House Foreign Relations Chair if Democrats win back the House, said on October 3, “Hamas must accept this deal and release all remaining hostages, the first crucial step to peace. At the same time, Israel must refrain from any escalatory actions that place Palestinian civilians – who have nothing to do with Hamas – in harm’s way.
“It is in Israel’s own interest, and the interest of regional stability, to achieve a durable resolution to this conflict. This can only be achieved through a credible peace process that secures the release of all remaining hostages, recognizes the dignity of Palestinians, resumes life-saving humanitarian aid, and ensures the viability of a two-state solution. Escalation only worsens the humanitarian crisis and delays peace.”
The Republican reaction proves again that the GOP is a cult beholden to Trump. Today's Republican Party has one principle: Donald Trump is always right. Once upon a time, the GOP thought Russia was our enemy and Putin was bad. Not anymore. Not since Trump cozied up to Putin.
Once upon a time, the GOP was decrying daylight between the U.S. and Israel and pushing back against any pressure on Israel as a matter of principle.
Last week, Trump humiliated Israel's prime minister by making him publicly apologize to Qatar.
On Friday, Trump released a video thanking many countries by name for helping to put together his Gaza agreement. He did not mention Israel.
On Friday, Trump re-posted a Hamas statement.
Trump's plan forbids Israeli occupation, let alone annexation, of Gaza, leading Rob Eshman to ask, "When did Trump become a liberal Zionist," noting that Trump's "new peace plan appears to take a left down J Street."
Imagine the field day our Republican friends would have had if any, let alone all, of the above had been done by a Democratic president (not that there is anything wrong with any, let alone all, of the above).
Yet not a word of criticism from the GOP. To be fair, the State of Palestine liked Trump's plan too.
Ironically, if Trump's plan is successful, Republicans will lose another talking point: No war in Gaza means that Democrats will no longer need to push for restrictions on weapons systems that Netanyahu's government is using in Gaza. Trump will have ended the war that the GOP and Netanyahu seemed willing to let go on forever.
New polling shows a dramatic drop in support for aid to Israel. A New York Times/Sienna poll found that "a majority of American voters now oppose sending additional economic and military aid to Israel, a stunning reversal in public opinion since the Oct. 7 attacks. About six out of 10 voters said that Israel should end its military campaign, even if the remaining Israeli hostages were not released or Hamas was not eliminated. And 40 percent of voters said Israel was intentionally killing civilians in Gaza, nearly double the number of voters who agreed with that statement in the 2023 poll."
Young Americans in particular are disillusioned with Israel.
A Washington Post poll released yesterday found that "many American Jews sharply disapprove of Israel’s conduct of the war in Gaza, with 61 percent saying Israel has committed war crimes and about 4 in 10 saying the country is guilty of genocide against the Palestinians."
By way of background, in July 2021, a Jewish Electorate Institute poll found that 22% of American Jews thought that Israel was committing genocide against the Palestinians and that of those who thought Israel was not committing genocide, only 31% thought it was antisemitic to make that claim.
This is all a direct result of the Netanyahu government's policies in Gaza, which means these results are reversible, albeit harder with younger Americans who have only known Israel as a military superpower led by Netanyahu and his increasingly extreme right-wing governments. Expect Israel's polling numbers to rise if Trump's deal is successful.
It is more important than ever to remind Americans that just as Trump is not America, Netanyahu is not Israel, no matter how long Netanyahu has been in office. We can best do that by vocally opposing the Netanyahu policies that we know are wrong and contrary to our values.
When Democrats are falsely accused of being anti-Israel for supporting efforts to end the Gaza War, we need to speak up and explain why working to end the Gaza War, bring home all the hostages, and flood Gaza with humanitarian aid is pro-Israel.
It is emotionally wrenching to see numbers like this. We used to argue that supporting Israel was good policy and good politics. The distinction between the state and the government was a distinction without a difference. Now, supporting Israel's current government is bad policy and bad politics.
For some in our community, this is too much to bear. They have an idealized version of Israel that never existed except in the pages of a Leon Uris novel, an Israel that can do no wrong. They never learned to love the real Israel, much as most Americans (at least non-MAGA Americans) learned to love the real America while acknowledging the horrors of enslaving Black Americans and genocide against Native Americans.
We need to be clear that opposing aid to Israel that is essential for Israel's safety and security is anti-Israel. Opposing non-essential aid as a means to an end--pressuring Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza--is not anti-Israel.
Support for Israel will continue to erode as long as Israel rejects a two-state solution, condones settler violence, and continues settlement expansion in the West Bank. We cannot advocate for indefensible policies, nor should we.
We must reiterate our commitment to Zionism, a Zionism that insists not only on the right of the Jews to a state in their homeland but recognizes that the Palestinians consider the same land their homeland. Neither side can or should give up its narrative, but both sides must give up some of the land they think is theirs. That's the only way.
None of this excuses Palestinian terrorism. None of this excuses settler terrorism. Nothing excuses October 7. None of this excuses Netanyahu's Gaza war tactics. It doesn't matter how many times Palestinians rejected previous statehood proposals--two states is not a reward or punishment for either side. It is the only way forward because roughly seven million Jews and seven million Palestinians live between the river and the sea, and no one is going anywhere.
The sooner we get on the right path, the sooner these polling numbers will change. More important, the sooner we get on the right path, the sooner both sides can live in the peace and dignity they deserve.
Is this realistic? What if someone told you, right after the 1973 Yom Kippur War, that in a few years, Egyptian president Anwar Sadat, the Nazi collaborator who launched a surprise attack on Israel on the holiest day of the year, would be welcomed to Jerusalem by Israel's hard-line prime minister (himself a former terrorist) and applauded by the Knesset?
Things can change. Problems thought to be intractable can be solved. Hope is not a strategy, but it is literally Israel's national anthem. We lose everything if we lose hope.
If Trump's plan is successful in ending the war in Gaza and bringing home the hostages, we cannot stop there. We must build on that success and work toward a two-state solution.
If we will it, it is no dream.
In Case You Missed It:
Tweets of the Week. Yair Golan and John Hartzell.
Threads of the Week. James Acton and, if you need some laughs, David Frum (read the replies too).
Video Clip of the Week. Chicago delivery guy stands up to ICE.
Vintage Music Clip of the Week. If this doesn't get you going, nothing will (I saw this band on this tour at the Marquee in London. Every song they did was this energetic).
For those new to this newsletter. This is the newsletter even Republicans have to read and the original home of the viral and beloved Top Ten Signs You're At a Republican Seder (yes, I wrote it). If someone forwarded this newsletter to you, why not subscribe and get it in your inbox every Sunday? Just click here--it's free.
I periodically update my posts on the IHRA definition of antisemitism and on why Democrats are better than Republicans on Israel and antisemitism. My definition of "pro-Israel" is here (it's a work in progress, as am I).
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