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Welcome to our Winter Newsletter!
As 2022 closes out, we would like to wish you and yours a very happy and healthy 2023.
We thought that we would look back at 2022 and make a few predictions for 2023.
This past period can best be summarised by three Cs:
- Conflict
- Covid
- Capital markets
And all leading to another C, cost of living. If we try and ignore covid for now and step back to 2008, the period that followed meant that corporate and government debt was largely underwritten by national banks, leading to a cannot fail bond fund environment and a long period of low interest rates. Money became cheap, people took more risk than necessary and the economic truth of reversion to the mean, hid in a cupboard.
In the share market, FANGS (Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Google) prevailed. People would never stop upgrading their iPhones, iPads, and endless peripherals. Facebook was THE place to advertise anything. Netflix would gobble up all other ways of watching the TV and films and lastly there was a chap who owned a car company who was selling fewer cars than his competitors, yet his company value was greater than all other US car companies in aggregate! What could possibly go wrong?
All was serene until Covid arrived, quantitative easing ended and a megalomaniac wanted to be remembered above all other Soviet leaders. Share prices fell, as did bonds (lending to governments and large corporates). Something that has very rarely happened before. Coupled with rising inflation, the economy began to hurt and many people, all over the world, are now struggling and taking a total rethink of their past spending, their current situation, and their future plans. The ghosts of this Christmas, you might say.
There is hope. The investment markets are stabilising.
We are seeing long-term annuity rates (where you exchange your capital for a lifetime income) regularly at 8% and 2-year cash rates in banks at almost 6% Where savers have struggled since 2008, their time has now come. It’s just a great shame that inflation is so high. We do though see this calming down and through investing over the long-term, strategically making the most of global opportunities, UK taxpayers can benefit from a weak pound and stronger economies elsewhere in the world.
Of course, your money is only useful if it supports you in having a life of meaning and purpose – ticking of your life bucket list. Capital gains tax is one such tax that will significantly increase going forwards.
We hope you enjoy the read and welcome any feedback or suggestions of content you would like to learn or read about.
Happy Holidays!
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