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In this update:
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| | Third party group launches first tv ad backing Rodriguez | |
A group backing Democratic gubernatorial candidate Sara Rodriguez has moved from digital to television with a new ad highlighting her campaign.
The effort, funded by Wisconsin Forward Fund, marks the first TV buy in the Democratic primary tracked by AdImpact, with more than $150,000 placed on broadcast and cable in the Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay markets. The group previously ran a smaller digital ad earlier this year.
The ad introduces Lieutenant Governor Rodriguez as a nurse who served during public health crises, later winning a Wisconsin Assembly seat and joining Governor Tony Evers’ ticket as Lieutenant Governor. It highlights her focus on rising costs and her positions on protecting Medicaid and reproductive rights. The spot concludes by describing Lt. gov. Rodriguez as “standing up for Wisconsin families.”
Watch the full ad here.
| Third party group launches tv ad backing Crowley | |
A nonprofit advocacy group, Wisconsin Future Rising, has launched a new six-figure tv ad buy supporting Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.
The ad, which will air on broadcast and cable in the Milwaukee, Madison, and Green Bay markets, highlights Mr. Crowley’s record and contrasts it with policies associated with President Donald Trump. It points to rising costs for gas, food, and clothing, while emphasizing Mr. Crowley’s response at the local level.
According to the group, the spot highlights more than $100 million in investments in affordable housing and eviction prevention, along with efforts to cut taxes and improve local services. The ad closes with a call for Mr. Crowley to “keep fighting for a safe and affordable Wisconsin.”
| New polling released by PSI | |
The Public Sentiment Institute (PSI) conducted a new poll on behalf of the conservative group The Great Lakes Perspective testing vote preference in the Democratic Primary for governor, as well as direct matchups between Republican candidate Tom Tiffany and two Democratic candidates. When testing voter preference in the Democratic Primary, former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes led the field with 24.1% support followed by current Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez at 12.3%, then State Rep. Francesca Hong at 8.5%, and Milwaukee County Exec. David Crowley at 8%. The remaining major candidates included State Sen. Kelda Roys at 3.9%, former DOA Sec. Joel Brennan at 1.6%, and former WEDC Sec. Missy Hughes at .2%. Meanwhile, 38.8% of respondents said they were “undecided/not sure” who they will vote for in the August Democratic Primary.
Among the two Democratic candidates for governor that were tested head to head against Congressman Tiffany, Mr. Barnes polled strongest with 44.8% of respondents saying they would vote for him and 40.9% saying they would vote for Congressman Tiffany. Meanwhile, when State. Rep. Hong was tested against Congressman Tiffany, she received 40.5% support while Congressman Tiffany received 39.7%.
The poll was conducted May 13-15 among 880 Registered Voters, as well as 877 Likely Voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. PSI weighted the poll to age, sex, education, region, and recall vote, and was matched to the state’s voter file and estimated demographic targets. Nate Silver rates PSI an “B/C” pollster.
| Barnes announces new plan to ban AI price gouging | |
Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, Democratic candidate for governor, announced a new proposal, part of his broader “Wisconsin Way” agenda, aimed at lowering costs and addressing what he describes as unfair pricing practices by large companies. The “Stop the Scams” plan focuses on the use of artificial intelligence in pricing, hidden fees, and online fraud.
According to Barnes’ campaign, the proposal draws on actions taken in states such as Maryland, California, New York, and Connecticut to limit algorithm-based pricing practices, with similar measures under consideration in other states.
Key components of the plan include:
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Restricting AI-based price setting: The proposal would prohibit companies from using artificial intelligence to set individualized prices for goods or services, including in health care and grocery sales. The campaign argues these tools can lead to higher costs for consumers based on personal data.
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Banning personalized pricing and hidden fees: Barnes would seek to bar businesses from adjusting prices based on factors such as browsing history, purchase behavior, or location. The plan also calls for requiring upfront disclosure of full prices and eliminating additional or “drip” fees.
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Addressing online scams: The proposal would hold large technology platforms accountable for facilitating fraudulent activity, including potential financial penalties if their services are used for scams. The campaign estimates online fraud costs Wisconsin consumers more than $1 billion annually.
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Expanding enforcement authority: As outlined by the campaign, the plan would give state agencies, including the Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection and the Department of Justice, greater authority to investigate and enforce violations, and would allow individuals to pursue legal action if harmed.
| GOP-backed group highlights Marklein’s bipartisan work | |
The Jobs First Coalition, a group that typically supports Republican candidates, has released a mailer highlighting state Senator Howard Marklein’s (R-Spring Green) bipartisan work with Democratic Governor Tony Evers, as Senator Marklein faces a competitive reelection campaign this fall.
The mail piece features imagery of a handshake in front of the Capitol and the tagline “Marklein & Evers” alongside “Bipartisan Action for Wisconsin.” It promotes Senator Marklein’s record on tax cuts for middle-class families and retirees, elimination of the sales tax on utility bills, and a $360 million investment in affordable child care.
The reverse side includes photos of Senator Marklein at bill-signing events with Governor Evers and notes that the governor has signed 38 bills authored by Senator Marklein over the past four years. It emphasizes his work “across the political aisle” to deliver results.
The Jobs First Coalition has also run digital ads with a similar message, according to the Google Ads Transparency Center.
The effort comes as Senator Marklein seeks reelection in a newly redrawn district that showed narrow Democratic advantages in recent top-of-ticket races. In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris carried the district by 1.1%, while U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin won by 4.7 points.
Representative Jenna Jacobson (D-Oregon) is challenging Senator Marklein. Both candidates previously supported the $1.8 billion surplus package negotiated by Governor Evers and Republican legislative leaders, which ultimately did not pass.
Read the full story.
| New polling released in several GOP-held legislative districts | |
The liberal group A Better Wisconsin Together released new polling in five Republican-held legislative districts, finding that President Donald Trump’s favorability ratings were negative in each seat.
In southwestern Wisconsin’s 17th Senate District, represented by Senator Howard Marklein (R-Spring Green), 38% of voters viewed President Trump favorably, compared to 55% unfavorably. The poll also showed a Democratic advantage on the generic legislative ballot, 48% to 40%. When Sen. Marklein was paired with a generic Democrat, 46% of respondents indicated support for a Democratic candidate and 37% backed Senator Marklein. Senator Marklein’s personal favorability stood at 28% positive and 31% negative. The 17th Senate District is expected to be a competitive race this fall, with three Democrats running in the primary, including Rep. Jenna Jacobson (D-Oregon).
The survey of 524 registered voters in the district was conducted May 12-13 by Public Policy Polling, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. Nate Silver rates PPP an “B+” pollster.
The release follows earlier polling from the group in districts held by Reps. Jessie Rodriguez (R-Oak Creek), Todd Novak (R-Dodgeville), Shannon Zimmerman (R-River Falls), Bob Donovan (R-Greenfield), and Pat Snyder (R-Weston). Those surveys, also conducted by Public Policy Polling, similarly found Trump’s favorability below double digits.
New data also included the open 82nd Assembly District, which is largely based in Waukesha. There, 42% of voters viewed President Trump favorably, while 53% viewed him unfavorably. The generic ballot was effectively tied, with 45% supporting a Democratic candidate and 44% supporting a Republican. The 82nd Assembly seat is open following Representative Scott Allen’s (R-Waukesha) decision not to seek re-election. Polling in that district has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.
The other seats polled included:
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The 53rd AD, which is open after Rep. Dean Kaufert, R-Neenah, announced he wouldn’t seek reelection. Thirty-seven percent had a favorable view of Trump, while 59% had an unfavorable one. The generic ballot favored Dems 50-39, and the margin of error was plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
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The 88th AD, now represented by freshman GOP Rep. Benjamin Franklin, of De Pere. Thirty-seven percent had a favorable view of Trump, while 56% had an unfavorable one. The generic ballot favored a Dem 47-41, though 41% said they’d vote for a Dem candidate when paired against Franklin, who was backed by 40%. That question identified him as a Republican candidate for the Assembly. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they had a favorable impression of Franklin, while 24% had a negative one. There were no identifiers such as his party affiliation or his office when that question was asked; he shares the same name as one of America’s Founding Fathers. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.
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The 92nd AD, now represented by Rep. Clint Moses, of Menomonie. Forty-three percent had a favorable view of Trump, while 52% had a negative one. The generic ballot favored a Dem 47-42, while 42% said they’d support a Dem when paired with Moses, who was backed by 39%. Moses’ favorability split was 28-28. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
| Baney announces run for 1st SD | | |
Republican candidate and De Pere resident Katie Baney announced her bid for Wisconsin’s 1st State Senate District following Senator André Jacque’s retirement. She is the fifth Republican to enter the race.
Ms. Baney highlighted her local ties and professional experience in the federal government and private sector. According to the campaign, her priorities include addressing cost-of-living pressures, supporting workforce growth, and promoting public safety, along with issues related to education and parental rights.
Read the full press release here.
| | Evers weighs in after surplus package fails; LFB outlines budget impact | | |
Governor Tony Evers said Senate Democrats who voted against the $1.8 billion education and tax package “Put themselves in an untenable position” heading into November, after all 15 Democrats joined three Republicans to block the bill. Governor Evers joined WISN 12’s UpFront stating the package would have provided immediate financial relief and increased school funding, particularly for special education, and said he believed there were enough Republican votes to pass the measure. He also described the breakdown as an example of broader dysfunction and reiterated he does not plan to endorse a candidate in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.
Separately, the nonpartisan Legislative Fiscal Bureau (LFB) released memos estimating the package’s longer-term fiscal effects. Under legislation enacted to date, LFB projected the general fund would end the 2025-27 biennium with a $2.367 billion balance and the 2027-29 biennium with a $525 million balance (assuming no revenue or spending growth). LFB estimated the special-session bill would have reduced the general fund balance by $3.475 billion over four years, resulting in an estimated -$2.95 billion position at the end of 2027-29.
After the vote, Senate Minority Leader Dianne Hesselbein said Senate Democrats opposed what she described as a fiscally unsound proposal, citing an estimated $2.9 billion deficit. Assembly Democratic Leader Greta Neubauer similarly argued the package risked future budget pressures and potential cuts.
Watch the full interview here.
| | As of 1:00 pm Friday, there have been no committee meetings scheduled for next week. Committee and Agency meeting notices are frequently updated and can be found here (for the Legislature) and here (for the Administration). | | |
Friday, May 29 - Coffee with the Candidate - Dr. Mike Roberts (virtual)
Monday, June 8 - Meet the Candidate - Will Martin
Thursday, July 23 - Pre-primary event with Charles Franklin
Thursday, August 27 - Post-primary event with Charles Franklin
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If you would like any additional information about the above topic, or if you would like to find time to discuss the above matter in more detail, please do not hesitate to contact your Michael Best Strategies contact.
Have a great day,
Wisconsin GR Team
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One South Pickney Street, Suite 700
Madison, WI 53703
Phone: 608-257-3501
Fax: 608-283-2275
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