Our comprehensive list and schedule of all upcoming political fundraisers. | |
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In this update:
Administration Updates
Election Updates
- State Assembly and Senate
- New ads in Assembly races
- U.S. President
- VP nominees visit WI
- New presidential polling
- New ads
- U.S. Senate
- New senate polling
- Baldwin releases new ads
- U.S. House of Representatives
- New polling in the 3rd CD
- Sabato’s Crystal Ball changes 3rd CD to “leans Republican”
Upcoming Events
- Coffee with the Candidates: Ben Franklin and Jim Piwowarczyk
- Meet the Cabinet: DSPS Sec. Hereth
- A Conversation with MU Poll Director Charles Franklin
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The Biennial Budget Agency Requests were due Monday, September 16th. The Department of Administration has listed the agency requests on their website to view. The Michael Best Strategies team will provide memos highlighting agency requests of note.
View the agency requests here.
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State Assembly and Senate | |
RSLC announce digital ads | |
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The Republican State Leadership Committee announced they are launching digital ads targeting Democratic candidates in three competitive Assembly races. The ads will run in the 21st AD against David Marstellar (D-Milwaukee), the 26th opposing Joe Sheehan (D-Sheboygan), and the 61st against LuAnn Bird (D-Hales Corners).
The ad targeting David Marstellar features him saying money should be invested in public schools and people who want to send their kids to private schools should pay for it themselves along with a repost calling the parents’ rights movement “stupid.” The narrator says, “Who should decide where Wisconsin kids go to school — parents or Madison politicians? David Marstellar believes politicians should decide.”
Watch the ad here.
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VP candidates visit Wisconsin | |
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Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz visited Superior and Wausau this past weekend. Last Friday in Wausau, he commended Vice President Kamala Harris for her performance in the recent debate, saying one person on the stage looked up to being president, and it wasn’t former President Donald Trump. Rep. Walz said Republicans will do everything they can to make it difficult to vote and suppress turnout while Democrats want to inspire people, lift them up and get them to the polls. “Just imagine the first time you’re going to get to say, “Madame President, it’s a privilege to have you,’” Rep. Walz said.
GOP Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance visited Eau Claire on Tuesday and called on Democrats to “tone down the political rhetoric.” The comment was made following a man with an AK-47-style rifle being arrested for an apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. “We have an opportunity to put [Trump] back in the White House, but only if he makes it seven weeks to Election Day,” Sen. Vance said. “Because we know that in this environment, unfortunately, it’s not out of the question that somebody else might try to take another shot.” His speech mirrored similar themes as previous remarks he’s delivered in Wisconsin, covering Vice President Harris’s record on immigration, the economy, and her lack of media appearances.
Presidential candidates and their Vice-Presidential nominees have made twenty-seven visits to Wisconsin, including Vice President Kamala Harris’ visit to Madison today. Fourteen of them have occurred since the Republican and Democratic National Conventions.
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AARP Wisconsin
- A new AARP Wisconsin poll found Vice President Kamala Harris with a small lead over former President Donald Trump. According to the head-to-head poll, 49% of likely Wisconsin voters said they back VP Harris, while 48% say they support former President Trump.
- The poll also found VP Harris was viewed favorably by 48% of respondents and unfavorably by 48%. Meanwhile, former President Trump was viewed favorability by 46% respondents and unfavorably by 51%.
- Fabrizio Ward and Dem firm Impact Research conducted the poll September 11-14 by contacting a sample of 600 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Fabrizio and Impact 1.7 stars out of three.
Quinnipiac
- A new Quinnipiac poll found 49% of likely voters support VP Harris and 48% support former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
- The poll also found 46% have a favorable view of VP Harris while 48% have an unfavorable view of her. For former President Trump, the split was 46% favorable and 50% unfavorable.
- They polled 1,075 likely voters from September 12-16 using live calls to landlines and cell phones. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Quinnipiac 2.8 stars out of three.
Marist
- A new Marist poll of likely voters found 50% support VP Harris while 49% back former President Trump in a head-to-head matchup.
- The poll also found 46% view VP Harris favorably, while 48% of have an unfavorable view. For former President Trump, the split was 45% favorable and 52% unfavorable.
- The poll of 1,431 likely voters was conducted Sep. 12-17 by phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. The margin of error is +/- 3.3%.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Marist the nation’s sixth best pollster with 2.9 stars out of three.
Emerson College
- A new Emerson College Poll of likely voters found 49% backed former President Trump while 48% supported VP Harris in a head-to-head matchup.
- The poll also found 48% view former President Trump favorably while 52% view him unfavorably. For VP Harris, the split was 49% favorable and 51% unfavorable.
- The poll of 1,000 likely voters was conducted Sep. 15-18 by contacting respondents’ cell phones via text-to-web and landlines via automated calls, as well as an online panel. The margin of error is +/- 3%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters including gender, age, race, education, voter registration, and turnout data.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson the nation’s tenth best pollster with 2.9 stars out of three.
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Way to Win announced ad buy with Voces De La Frontera Action | |
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Way to Win and Voces De La Frontera Action announced a joint ad buy to encourage people to support Democratic candidates in November. The ads are running on streaming TV and digital platforms. The ad features a second-grade bilingual teacher from the south side of Milwaukee who moved to the U.S. when she was two. “Trump attacks Latinos,” she says. “I definitely feel safer with Harris. Trump wants to control our future. Kamala Harris wants to ensure people have the freedom to thrive.”
Watch the ad here.
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Project Democracy releases new ad | |
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Project Democracy released an ad with Wisconsin business leaders touting their support for Vice President Kamala Harris. The ad is running on streaming services, social media and online news sites. The ad features David Lubar, president and CEO of Lubar & Co, who says former President Donald Trump “is chaos.” Another businessman says business “depends upon the rule of law.” Betsy Brenner, former publisher of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, says “When chaos ensues, none of that can happen,” in the ad.
Watch the ad here.
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White Dudes for Harris launches ad campaign | |
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White Dudes for Harris launched a $10 million ad campaign to target white men in Wisconsin. The narrator of the ad says, “Every time you go online, it’s the same story: we’re the problem. And yeah, some white dudes are. Trump and all his MAGA buddies are out there making it worse, shouting nonsense in their stupid red hats and acting like they speak for us when they don’t. All they’ve ever done is screw us over.”
Watch the ad here.
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AARP Wisconsin
- A new AARP Wisconsin poll found 50% of likely Wisconsin voters support incumbent U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D). Meanwhile, 47% of voters back GOP candidate Eric Hovde (R).
- When they asked about each candidate’s favorability, Sen. Baldwin was viewed favorably by 47% of respondents and unfavorably by 43%. Mr. Hovde’s split was 38-43.
- Fabrizio Ward and Dem firm Impact Research conducted the poll was conducted September 11-14 by contacting a sample of 600 likely voters. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Fabrizio and Impact 1.7 stars out of three.
Quinnipiac
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Quinnipiac found 51% backed Sen. Baldwin, and 47% supported Eric Hovde.
- They polled 1,075 likely voters from September 12-16 using live calls to landlines and cell phones. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Quinnipiac 2.8 stars out of three.
Marist
- A new Marist poll reported Sen. Baldwin slightly ahead with 51% of likely voters planning to support her, while 48% backed Eric Hovde.
- The poll of 1,431 likely voters was conducted Sep. 12-17 by phone using live interviewers, by text, or online. The margin of error is +/- 3.3%.
- With favorability ratings, Sen. Baldwin was viewed favorably by 45% of respondents and unfavorably by 43%. Eric Hovde’s split was 36-43, and 21% were undecided or never heard of him.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Marist the nation’s sixth best pollster with 2.9 stars out of three.
Emerson College
- The new Emerson College poll found 49% of likely voters supported Sen. Baldwin, 46% backed Eric Hovde, and 5% were undecided.
- The poll was conducted Sep. 15-18 by contacting respondents’ cell phones via text-to-web and landlines via automated calls, as well as an online panel. The margin of error is +/- 3%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters including gender, age, race, education, voter registration, and turnout data.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson the nation’s tenth best pollster with 2.9 stars out of three.
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U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) launched two new ads this week. The first ad is running on television in response to a Fix Washington PAC ad that claimed Sen. Baldwin has not disclosed assets or clients of her partner Maria Brisbane. According to WisPolitics, Sen. Baldwin disclosed the Washington, D.C., condo they co-own. Sen. Baldwin and her partner are not married, and Senate rules only require candidates and senators to disclose spouse’s individually-owned assets. Sen. Baldwin’s ad says the Fix Washington PAC ad is a “complete lie” and she has “never shared inside information with her partner.”
Watch the ad here.
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The second ad is a joint buy with the Democratic Party of Wisconsin and targets GOP candidate Eric Hovde on his abortion policies. The ad features Meagan and Jon Ross who say they found out their baby had severe fetal abnormalities and Meagan’s life was at risk. She said with “Wisconsin Republicans' extreme abortion ban,” she had to go out of state to receive the care she needed. “And in the Senate, Hovde would give Mitch McConnell the majority to ban abortion nationwide,” she says. “No exceptions for rape, incest, or the health of women, like me. What is wrong with these guys?”
Watch the ad here.
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WinSenate launches new ad | |
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WinSenate launched a new TV ad claiming GOP Senate candidate Eric Hovde wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act and cut Social Security and Medicare. WinSenate is an arm of the Senate Majority PAC, which backs Democratic candidates. The narrator says Mr. Hovde is a “multimillionaire California bank CEO. But when it comes to our health care, his plans aren't so rich.” The ad also features of clip of Mr. Hovde saying, “We have to try to defund every aspect of Obamacare.”
Watch the ad here.
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Wisconsin Principles report new ad | |
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Wisconsin Principles launched a new ad targeting U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) on transparency. The ad features a clip of Sen. Baldwin saying she doesn’t believe there should be two sets of rules, “one for the wealthy and one for the rest of us.” The narrator goes on saying 12 years later, she pushed for conflict-of-interest regulations, however, she exempted herself and wouldn't disclose “any shared assets she has with her partner despite the potential for conflict of interest.”
Watch the ad here.
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AFP Action launches three digital ads | |
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AFP Action released three digital ads in the U.S. Senate race. The ads will run on digital and connected TV. The first ad is 60-seconds and knocks Sen. Baldwin’s policies on inflation. “I think we need some fresh blood. We need some new people in office,” Lindsay A. of Sheboygan said. The other two ads are clips from the first 60-second ad.
Watch the 60-second ad here.
Watch the 30-second ad here.
Watch the 15-second ad here.
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U.S. House of Representatives | |
House Majority PAC releases new poll in the 3rd CD | |
House Majority PAC released a new poll finding Rebecca Cooke (D-Eau Claire) and U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) in a close race. Among likely voters, 49% support Cooke, and 47% back Rep. Van Orden. They also polled favorability, finding Rep. Van Orden being viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 41%. House Majority PAC only release some topline numbers but not the full poll. GBAO conducted the poll of 400 likely voters from Sept. 8-10. The margin of error was +/- 4.9 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight rates GBAO 1.2 stars out of three. | |
Sabato’s Crystal Ball changes 3rd CD to “lean Republican” | |
Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics changed the 3rd Congressional District from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican”. They noted that the House Majority PAC poll was over-optimistic in a Trump +5 district, but the race is “a more competitive contest than how we had it rated.” | |
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September 25th at 11:30AM - Meet the Cabinet: Department of Safety and Professional Services Secretary Dan Hereth (virtual and in-person options available)
- Coffee with the Candidates:
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Friday, September 27th at 8:30 AM: 88th Assembly District candidate Ben Franklin (R-De Pere) virtual
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Friday, October 4th at 8:30 AM: 98th Assembly District candidate Jim Piwowarczyk (R-Hubertus) virtual
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October 11th at 12:00 PM - An Election Presentation with MU Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin
- RSVP to Barb Stevenson at Barb.Stevenson@michaelbest.com if you'd like to attend these events
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If you would like any additional information about the above topic, or if you would like to find time to discuss the above matter in more detail, please do not hesitate to contact your Michael Best Strategies contact.
Have a great day,
Wisconsin GR Team
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One South Pickney Street, Suite 700
Madison, WI 53703
Phone: 608-257-3501
Fax: 608-283-2275
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