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In this update:
Election Updates
- Presidential candidates in Wisconsin
- New ads and polling
Legislative Updates
- Future of UW study committee
Upcoming Events
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State Assembly and Senate | |
New ads in competitive state Assembly races | |
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Candidates for state Assembly seats have been launching ads. Below is an overview of the new ads:
30th AD:
- Alison Page (D-River Falls) and the Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee (ADCC) released a TV ad sharing her personal story that she needed an abortion when she got sick while pregnant with her fourth child. Watch the ad here.
- The Republican Assembly Campaign Committee (RACC) released an ad for incumbent Rep. Shannon Zimmerman (R-River Falls) saying Page would raise taxes and would “give illegal immigrants benefits like free housing and health care, sticking you with the bill.” Watch the ad here.
89th AD:
- ADCC launched a TV ad for Ryan Spaude’s (D-Green Bay) campaign. The ad features a Green Bay resident who says Spaude’s opponent Patrick Buckley (R-Green Bay) “didn’t put our safety first” when he was a county board member. Watch the ad here.
94th AD:
- Ryan Huebsch’s (R-Onalaska) campaign and RACC released two ads together:
- The first ad says incumbent Representative Steve Doyle (D-Onalaska) would force girls to share bathrooms with boys and voted for boys to play in girls’ sports. Watch the ad here.
- The other ad says Rep. Doyle “supports sanctuary cities that protect criminals.” Watch the ad here.
- The WMC Issues Mobilization Council launched an ad targeting Rep. Doyle for voting to allow politicians to ban gas-powered cars and trucks. Watch the ad here.
- The Assembly Accountability Project is up with an ad saying Huebsch’s “agenda is too extreme for the Coulee region.” The campaign also includes mailer targeting Huebsch. Watch the ad here.
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Harris stops in Waukesha County | |
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Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney with former conservative talk show host Charlie Sykes stopped at the Brookfield arts center to appeal to moderate and Republican voters. Cheney said Americans should think of how they decided who to work with and trust, “If you wouldn’t hire somebody to babysit your kids, like, you shouldn’t make that guy president of the United States,” Cheney said.
Vice President Harris said her favorite assignment in the U.S. Senate was the Intelligence Committee because she worked across the aisle. “We were all Americans. We were all in that room with one singular purpose to concern ourselves as our highest priority with the security and well-being of the United States of America. I think those things are at stake in this election,” she said.
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Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Tim Walz visited Madison and Racine on Tuesday. The rally in Madison at the Veterans Memorial Coliseum at Alliant Energy Center was held with former President Barack Obama where he questioned former President Donald Trump’s competence. Walz continued, saying he does not have the stamina to be president and has been “rambling more than the normal rambling.” He also targeted GOP Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance for saying the former president “speaks from the heart,” saying it is “a cold, grinchy, three-sizes-too-small heart.”
Tim Walz visited Racine later that day where he claimed that “Trump is descending into madness.” He was referring to a report from The Atlantic that claimed former President Trump said, “I need the kind of generals that Hitler had.” Walz said it made him “sick as hell,” and the report proves that former President Trump from 2016 is “not the Donald Trump of today by any stretch of the imagination.”
These stops were Walz’s sixth visit to Wisconsin since being announced Vice President Harris’ running mate.
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Republican Vice Presidential nominee JD Vance visited a faith rally in Waukesha. He said Vice President Kamala Harris is “anti-Christian and anti-Catholic bigotry.” He said she seems to think Christians are a bigger threat than the Mexican drug cartels, but former President Donald Trump will defend “your First Amendment right to practice your faith however you want to.” During questions, Vance encouraged Republicans to vote absentee. He said, “If the Democrats are going to use every method of voting possible, then the Republicans, we've got to do it too. We've got to take advantage of the options that are given to us.” Ahead of the rally, he stopped in Green Bay to spend time with Packer fans. These stops were his sixth trop to Wisconsin since the Republican National Convention. | |
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AtlasIntel
- A new AtlasIntel poll found 48.9% of likely voters support VP Harris and 48.2% support former President Trump in a multi-candidate race.
- The poll also found VP Harris was viewed favorably by 48% of respondents and unfavorably by 51%. Meanwhile, former President Trump was viewed favorability by 46% respondents and unfavorably by 52%.
- The poll of 932 likely voters was conducted October 12-17 using random digital recruitment. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
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FiveThirtyEight rates AtlasIntel the nation’s 22nd best pollster with 2.7 stars out of three.
Bloomberg
- A new Bloomberg poll of likely voters found 48.3% support former President Trump while 48% back VP Harris in a head-to-head matchup.
- The poll also found 45% view VP Harris favorably, while 52% of have an unfavorable view. For former President Trump, the split was 45% favorable and 53% unfavorable.
- The poll of 624 likely voters was conducted online Oct. 16-20. The margin of error is +/- 4%.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Bloomberg the nation’s 116th best pollster with 1.8 stars out of three.
Quinnipiac
- A new Quinnipiac poll of likely voters found 48% support VP Harris while 48% back former President Trump in a multi-candidate race.
- The poll also found 46% view VP Harris favorably, while 48% of have an unfavorable view. For former President Trump, the split was 47% favorable and 49% unfavorable.
- The poll of 1,108 likely voters was conducted Oct. 17-21 by landline and cell phone using live callers. The margin of error is +/- 2.9%.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Quinnipiac the nation’s 17th best pollster with 2.8 stars out of three.
Trafalgar Group
- A new Trafalgar Group poll found 46.8% of likely voters support former President Trump and 46.6% support VP Harris in a multi-candidate race.
- The poll of 1,083 likely voters was conducted October 18-20 using live calls, auto dials, text messages, emails, digital dial back interface and online targeted opt-in digital survey platforms. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Trafalgar the nation’s 273rd best pollster with 0.7 stars out of three.
Emerson College
- A new Emerson College poll of likely voters found 49% back former President Trump while 48% support VP Harris in a head-to-head matchup.
- The poll also found 50% view former President Trump favorably while 50% view him unfavorably. For VP Harris, the split was 49% favorable and 51% unfavorable.
- The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted Oct. 21-22 by contacting respondents’ cell phones via text-to-web and landlines via automated calls, as well as an online panel. The margin of error is +/- 3.4%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters including gender, age, race, education, voter registration, and turnout data.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson the nation’s 10th best pollster with 2.9 stars out of three.
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The Republican Party of Wisconsin are launching three radio ads aimed at Black and Hispanic voters in Wisconsin. The ad targeting Black voters will run in Milwaukee and features a man and a woman talking about how former President Donald Trump had inflation and crime under control. “Yes, thanks Kamala Harris and Tammy Baldwin, it’s their fault inflation is so bad,” the woman says. The second radio ad targeting Hispanic voters will run in the Milwaukee and Green Bay markets. The as also features a man and women who are speaking in Spanish about how the economy was better when former President Donald Trump was in office.
The last ad will run statewide and encourages voters to “vote yes” for a constitutional referendum to ban noncitizen voting. The narrator says Republican state legislators approved an amendment to ensure only citizens can vote, “But a network of radical groups and special interests are fighting against it — groups that support mass amnesty for illegal immigrants, abolishing ICE and funding sanctuary cities. Outright socialists, all working together to keep the door open to noncitizens voting in our elections.”
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AtlasIntel
- A new AtlasIntel poll found 49.3% of likely voters support U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin and 46.3% support entrepreneur Eric Hovde.
- The poll of 932 likely voters was conducted October 12-17 using random digital recruitment. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.
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FiveThirtyEight rates AtlasIntel the nation’s 22nd best pollster with 2.7 stars out of three.
Quinnipiac
- A new Quinnipiac poll of likely voters found 49% of likely voters support Sen. Baldwin and 48% support Mr. Hovde.
- The poll of 1,108 likely voters was conducted Oct. 17-21 by landline and cell phone using live callers. The margin of error is +/- 2.9%.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Quinnipiac the nation’s 17th best pollster with 2.8 stars out of three.
Trafalgar Group
- A new Trafalgar Group poll found 48.5% of likely voters support Mr. Hovde and 48.1% support Sen. Baldwin.
- The poll of 1,083 likely voters was conducted October 18-20 using live calls, auto dials, text messages, emails, digital dial back interface and online targeted opt-in digital survey platforms. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Trafalgar the nation’s 273rd best pollster with 0.7 stars out of three.
Emerson College
- A new Emerson College poll of likely voters found 48% support Sen. Baldwin while 48% support Mr. Hovde.
- The poll of 800 likely voters was conducted Oct. 21-22 by contacting respondents’ cell phones via text-to-web and landlines via automated calls, as well as an online panel. The margin of error is +/- 3.4%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters including gender, age, race, education, voter registration, and turnout data.
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FiveThirtyEight rates Emerson the nation’s 10th best pollster with 2.9 stars out of three.
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U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) has released two TV ads this week. The first TV ad was paid for by a joint fundraising committee and features a QR code for people to use for donating. The ad says her GOP opponent Eric Hovde owns a $3 billion California bank and a $7 million mansion on the beach and proposed tax breaks for “rich guys just like him.” The ad closes, “Now we know what’s wrong with Eric Hovde. This guy is not for us.”
Watch the ad here.
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The second TV ad address the ads targeting her on transgender issues. Her ad shows his previous ads, and the narrator says, “We all know what Eric Hovde is trying to do, falsely attacking Tammy Baldwin by questioning her personal life, and Eric Hovde’s trying to scare you.” The add says sex change surgeries on minors do not happen in Wisconsin and says she gives money to a youth homeless shelter, not a transgender clinic.
Watch the ad here.
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U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde (R) released four TV ads. One ad’s narrator claimed U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is a “liberal snob” and said she hates Trump supporters like Hillary Clinton does. The ad also plays a clip of Sen. Baldwin at the 2016 Democratic Convention where she said former President Donald Trump was “one of the most offensive and hateful and unacceptable presidential candidates we’ve ever had. So what does that say about the people who support him?” The ad was from his joint fundraising committee.
Watch the ad here.
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The second ad claims Sen. Baldwin wants to be in New York in her partner’s $7 million condo. Similar to other ads, the narrator highlights that Sen. Baldwin’s partner Maria Brisbane works on Wall Street and advises the “super rich” on industries Sen. Baldwin regulates. The ad ends, “Tammy Baldwin is not Wisconsin’s senator anymore. She's the third senator from New York.”
Watch the ad here.
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Another ad has similar themes, saying Sen. Baldwin does not fight against Wall Street but rather lives with a Wall Street executive. This ad also claims she gets money from “big pharma” and “big tech” despite saying she stands up to them too. Eric Hovde says in the ad, “Senator Baldwin doesn't work for you. She works for them.”
Watch the ad here.
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The final ad features Hovde explaining how he was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis. He said the medication when he started cost $6,000 a year but now it costs five times that. He says Sen. Baldwin takes millions from big pharma but claims she fights to lower drug prices. Hovde closes the ad, “I'll fight the corruption and lower drug prices because I've lived it.”
Watch the ad here.
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Senate Leadership Fund releases new ad | |
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The Senate Leadership Fund is up with an ad calling U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin “too extreme.” The ad is similar to their other ads, saying she was in favor of nearly $1 billion for “criminals in prison, including the Boston marathon bomber,” forcing women’s domestic violence shelters to admit biological men, and supporting sex change surgeries for minors.
Watch the ad here.
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Fix Washington PAC releases new ad | |
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Fix Washington PAC released a new ad targeting U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D), featuring people saying she’s "extreme." The people say her policies caused Wisconsin to be "flooded" with fentanyl and criminals and forced women to share locker rooms with biological men. The ad says "she helped cause the crisis. 25 years is enough."
Watch the ad here.
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U.S. House of Representatives | |
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Democratic candidate Rebecca Cooke is out with a new ad highlighting her support for law enforcement and refuting ads from incumbent Rep. Derrick Van Orden that claim she does not support police. The spot features two police officers who say Ms. Cooke would never defund the police and that she comes from a family of first responders and veterans. Ms. Cooke is also featured in the ad promising to “always put safety first.” The ad is part of a six-figure buy running on digital and streaming platforms, as well as broadcast and cable TV in the La Crosse, Madison, and Wausau media markets.
Watch the ad here.
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Congressional Leadership Fund up
with new ad
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The GOP-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) released a new TV ad opposing Democratic candidate Rebecca Cooke. The ad claims Ms. Cooke is “just another liberal trying to fool you.” The ad will air in the La Crosse and Wausau media markets and is part of $1.5 million in reservations from CLF to support incumbent GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden.
Watch the ad here.
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House Majority PAC releases new ads | |
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The Democratic-aligned group House Majority PAC released two new TV ads opposing U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden. One spot features a U.S. Army veteran claiming Rep. Van Orden would make “Wisconsinites pay for tax cuts to the wealthy” and that he “sides with extremists to cut social security.”
Watch the ad here.
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The other spot features the same veteran who claims Rep. Van Orden “wants to repeal the law that stops insurance companies from denying coverage if you have a pre-existing health condition.” According to AdImpact, House Majority PAC has nearly $2.6 million in reservations between now and the election.
Watch the other ad here.
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Future of UW System holds meeting | |
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The Study Committee on the Future of the UW System met on Thursday to present their proposals and choose which will continue to the legislature for consideration next session. Several of the proposals would overhaul the UW-System like separating the University of Wisconsin-Madison from the rest of the system.
In a previous meeting in August, UW System President Jay Rothman said the UW System will request the legislature $855 million in the next budget to move Wisconsin up from its 43rd ranking of 50 in public funding for universities. In yesterday’s meeting, Committee Chair Rep. Amanda Nedweski (R-Pleasant Prairie) started with a report created by Sen. Duey Stroebel (R-Cedarburg) called “Myth Busters: The Importance of Transparency and Accountability in Rebuilding Trust,” claiming the UW-System is closer to 22nd or 26th.
Other proposals include:
- Changing how members get appointed to the Board of Regents, removing the governor’s ability to appoint most of the members.
- Increasing tuition
- Reviewing program offerings
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November 8th at 8:30 AM - Post-Election Update with the MBS D.C. Team virtual
January 15th at 11:30 AM - Meet the Cabinet: Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation Secretary Missy Hughes (virtual and in-person options available)
RSVP to Barb Stevenson at Barb.Stevenson@michaelbest.com if you'd like to attend these events
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If you would like any additional information about the above topic, or if you would like to find time to discuss the above matter in more detail, please do not hesitate to contact your Michael Best Strategies contact.
Have a great day,
Wisconsin GR Team
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One South Pickney Street, Suite 700
Madison, WI 53703
Phone: 608-257-3501
Fax: 608-283-2275
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