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Election Updates

• MU poll recap
• Finance reports are released
• More visits from presidential candidates
• Baldwin and Hovde on Upfront
• New polling and ads

Upcoming Events

• Friday, November 8th: Post-Election Update

Election Updates

MU poll recap

Marquette University Law School Poll released a new statewide poll on Wednesday, October 30th. Looking ahead to the November Elections, the poll found that:

• 50% of likely voters support Vice President Kamala Harris and 49% support former President Donald Trump. When third party candidates are included, Vice President Harris received the support of 46% and former President Trump 44%.
• In their October 2nd poll, Vice President Harris was at 52% support and former President Trump at 48%.

• 51% of likely voters support U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin, while 49% back GOP U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde.
• Earlier in the month, Sen. Baldwin received 53% support, and Mr. Hovde received 46%.

ICYMI: For a summary of the poll from Michael Best, click here.

State Assembly and Senate

State Democrats maintain fundraising advantage over GOP

State Democrats continue to have the upper hand financially over their GOP counterparts according to the latest pre-election period campaign finance reports, which cover activity from September 24 through October 21. Driving the financial advantage at the top was the Democratic Party of Wisconsin (DPW), which outraised it’s state GOP competitor by nearly $7 million, pulling in $9.5 million during the pre-election period compared to the Republican Party of Wisconsin’s (RPW) $2.6 million. Out of state donors propelled the fundraising disparity with DPW raising $8.3 million from outside of Wisconsin compared to just $5,000 for RPW. Leveraging its significant financial advantage, the state Democratic party transferred $5.1 million to the Assembly Democratic Campaign Committee (ADCC) and $4.55 million to the State Senate Democratic Campaign Committee (SSDC). As a result of the transfers, ADCC managed to outraise the Republican Assembly Campaign Committee (RACC) by nearly $3 million, pulling in $9.3 million compared to RACC’s $6.4 million. Meanwhile, the same trend was apparent in the state Senate as SSDC outraised the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate (CERS) by over $4 million, with SSDC reporting $5.7 million in receipts compared to $1.4 million reported by CERS. 

Senate Democratic candidates outraise

GOP counterparts

The state Democrats’ financial advantage carried over to the four most competitive state Senate races which include the 8th, 14th, 18th, and 30th Senate Districts. In each race, Democratic candidates Jodi Habush Sinykin (Whitefish Bay), Sarah Keyeski (Lodi), Kris Alfheim (Appleton), and Jamie Wall (Green Bay) outraised and outspent their GOP opponents during the pre-election reporting period. Moreover, following the end of the reporting period on October 21, SSDC transferred an additional $2.7 million to those same four candidates to maintain their spending advantage through the final weeks of the race. See below for details.

Ads in the 14th SD

State Sen. Joan Ballweg (R-Markesan) launched two new ads, and her opponent Sarah Keyeski (D-Lodi) released another ad in the 14th SD. Both of Sen. Ballweg’s ads regard to her support of birth control and IVF treatments after Ms. Keyeski released an ad claiming Sen. Ballweg wants to ban abortion with no exceptions and voted to ban birth control. The first ad features Sen. Ballweg wanting to “set the record straight” and saying she supports birth control, the life and health of mothers, and fertility.

Watch the ad here.

The second ad from Sen. Ballweg says Ms. Keyeski is lying, and the “truth is Joan Ballweg is a champion for women's health care.” The two women in the ad say she fought to expand healthcare access for postpartum moms and supports IVF and birth control.

Watch the ad here

Democratic candidate Sarah Keyeski’s new ad says Sen. Ballweg’s plan is to ban abortion and birth control. Meanwhile, Ms. Keyeski will lower the cost of health care and housing prescription drugs and will cut taxes. The narrator says, “So, if you want a candidate focused on banning abortion and birth control, that's Joan Ballweg. For everyone else, there's Sarah Keyeksi. She's running for state Senate to finally bring costs down.”

Watch the ad here.

Doyle launches radio ad

State Rep. Steve Doyle (D-Onalaska) launched a radio ad saying candidates should “just tell people about yourself” rather than “trash talking your opponent.” The ad highlights his accomplishments in the legislature, like supporting a 10% middle class tax cut, funding for roads, schools and broadband, and more resources for local law enforcement. “Most importantly, I’ve been the adult in the room in a time of political polarization,” he says.

Listen to the ad here.

Stroebel releases new ads

State Senator Duey Stroebel has released two new 15-second ads, and the Committee to Elect a Republican Senate (CERS) also released an ad targeting his opponent Jodi Habush Sinykin. The first ad includes Sen. Stroebel and his wife, and he says his “radical opponent is lying about my record to scare you” and he supports access to IVF and birth control. His wife, Laura, says “father, grandfather and my husband, I know Duey supports women.”

Watch the ad here.

The second ad features just his wife who says Sen. Stroebel “has always protected mothers, both during and after pregnancy.”

Watch the ad here.

CERS also released an ad targeting the district, saying supporters of Ms. Habush Sinykin push a “F*** the suburbs” message. The quote is from state Sen. LaTonya Johnson (D-Milwaukee) during a floor debate. The narrator also says, “They also believe that police think it's a sport to shoot our kids and neighbors. It's just wrong. Tell Jodi Habush Sinykin to stop supporting their radical agenda.”

Watch the ad here.

RSLC launches digital ads

The Republican State Leadership Committee released digital ads in three Assembly districts to target Democratic candidates. The ads will be in the 61st AD, the 21st AD, and the 26th AD. The ads are the same in each district but swaps the candidate in each district. The narrator says, “Wisconsin families deserve choices as consumers, but Joe Sheehan’s far-left allies supported green energy mandates that would limit your options.”

Watch the ad opposing LuAnn Bird (D-Hales Corners) here.

Watch the ad opposing David Marstellar (D-Milwaukee) here.

Watch the ad opposing Joe Sheehan (D-Sheboygan) here.

U.S. President

Harris in Madison

Vice President Kamala Harris held a rally at the Veterans Memorial Coliseum at the Alliant Center in Madison on Wednesday with artists Gracie Abrams, Mumford & Sons, and others. She said she will listen to people with differing views while former President Donald Trump “wants to put them in jail.” She said the former president will “walk into that office with an enemies list. You know he talks about the enemies from within,” Vice President Harris said. “When I’m elected, I will walk in with a to-do list focused on your needs.” She also said former President Trump will ban abortion, “restrict access to birth control, put IVF treatments at risk and force states to monitor women’s pregnancies,” citing Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025.

Trump in Green Bay

Former President Donald Trump held a rally at the Resch Center in Green Bay on Wednesday. He arrived at the rally in a garbage truck as a response to President Joe Biden saying, “the only garbage I see floating out there is his supporter’s,” after comments comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made about Puerto Rico being a “floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean”. At the rally, former President Trump said, “my supporters are far higher quality than crooked Joe or lyin’ Kamala. … My response to Joe and Kamala is very simple: You can’t lead America if you don’t love Americans. It’s true. You can’t be president if you hate the American people, which I believe they do.”

Walz in Waukesha and Manitowoc

Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz visited Manitowoc on Monday at the Wisconsin Aluminum Foundry. He criticized former President Donald Trump’s relationship with China’s Xi Jinping, saying the former president “loves” China even though he claims to be tough on China. “By the end of his presidency, he had wiped out more than half of the manufacturing jobs that have been created in the previous decade,” Gov. Walz said. “He was asleep at the wheel while China seeks the advantage, and now he says we should just let China dominate the industries of the future. That's who this guy is.”

He criticized the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 and said Vice President Kamala Harris would “cut the red tape to unleash American potential and industry.” He said she would create a tax credit to increase investments and implement tax cuts for companies that guarantee the right of workers to organize into unions.

Vance in Racine and Wausau

GOP vice presidential nominee JD Vance held rallies in Wausau and Racine on Monday. Sen. Vance at the Wausau Downtown Airport said people “have to stop getting so offended at every little thing” after a speaker at a Trump campaign said Puerto Rico is a “floating island of garbage.” He also said he did not realize how close the margin in Wisconsin was in 2020. “This state was decided by 0.63%, that's 20,000 votes, and that could very well be the difference — frankly, it could be even smaller than that — the difference between President Donald Trump and President Kamala Harris,” Sen. Vance said. Later in the day, he stopped in Racine where he covered similar topics.

New presidential polling

Senate Opportunity Fund

• Senate Opportunity Fund released polling results finding former President Donald Trump leading in Wisconsin among likely voters by one-point. The results showed 48% of voters back former President Trump and 47% support Vice President Kamala Harris. Jill Stein received 1%.
• OnMessage Inc conducted the poll for Senate Opportunity Fund. They polled 600 likely voters between October 19-22 via texts inviting respondents to complete the survey online. The margin of error was +/- 4 percentage points.
• FiveThirtyEight rates OnMessage 1.1 stars out of three.

Suffolk University/USA Today

• Suffolk University/USA Today found 48% of likely voters in Wisconsin support former President Trump and 47% support Vice President Harris. Despite dropping out, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 1% as well as Jill Stein.
• Suffolk University polled 500 likely voters from October 20-23 using live telephone interviews. The margin of error was +/- 4.4 percentage points.
• FiveThirtyEight rates Suffolk University 2.9 starts out of three.

CNN

• A new CNN poll found Vice President Harris ahead with 51% support, while former President Trump trails with 45% of likely voters’ backing. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Jill Stein both received 1% each.
• CNN had SSRS survey 736 likely Wisconsin voters between October 23-28 by inviting respondents to participate in the survey through mailed postcards, text messages, emails and phone calls. The margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
• FiveThirtyEight rates SSRS 2.4 out of three stars.

Atlas Intel

• Atlas Intel found a close presidential race with former President Trump at 48.5% and Vice President Harris at 48.2% in a multiple candidate race. In a head-to-head, Vice President Harris was slightly ahead with 49% support and former President Trump with 48.8%.
• Atlas Intel surveyed 673 likely voters from October 30-31 using random digit dial technology to reach voters by phone. The margin of error was +/- 4.4 percentage points.
• FiveThirtyEight rates Atlas Intel 2.7 stars out of three.

View FiveThirtyEight’s data.

View RealClearPolling’s data.

Comparing previous polling to actual presidential results

During the week prior to the 2016 presidential election, the Real Clear Politics polling average had Hillary Clinton at 46.8% support compared to Donald Trump’s 40.3%. Meanwhile, the final MU Law Poll had Clinton at 46% compared to Trump’s 40%. The actual results of the 2016 election saw Trump receive 47.2% of the vote compared to Clinton’s 46.5%.

During the week prior to the 2020 presidential election, the Real Clear Politics polling average had Joe Biden at 51% support compared to Donald Trump’s 44.3%. Meanwhile, the final MU Law Poll had Biden at 48% compared to Trump’s 43%. The actual results of the 2020 election saw Biden receive 49.6% of the vote compared to Trump’s 48.9%.

In 2024, in the week prior to the presidential election, the Real Clear Politics polling average had Kamala Harris at 48.4% support compared to Donald Trump’s 48.1%. Meanwhile, the final MU Law Poll had Harris at 50% compared to Trump’s 49%. Stay tuned next week to find out what the actual results of the 2024 presidential election will be!

U.S. Senate

Baldwin and Hovde on Upfront

WISN’s ‘Upfront’ interviewed both U.S. Senate candidates nine days out before the election. Each candidate gave insights into their race as well as their stances on the issues. Below is a list of the topics covered in each of the interviews:

• Presidential race
• Economy
• Immigration
• Abortion

Watch Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s interview.

Watch Eric Hovde’s interview.

New senate polling

Senate Opportunity Fund

• Senate Opportunity Fund released polling finding GOP U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde leading in Wisconsin among likely voters by one-point. The results showed 49% of voters back Mr. Hovde and 48% support U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D). Phil Anderson, who is running under Disrupt the Corruption banner, received 1% support.
• The poll also found 47% of respondents have a positive view of Sen. Baldwin, and 49% have a negative view. Mr. Hovde’s split was 44-49.
• OnMessage Inc conducted the poll for Senate Opportunity Fund. They polled 600 likely voters between October 19-22 via texts inviting respondents to complete the survey online. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
• FiveThirtyEight rates OnMessage 1.1 stars out of three.

Suffolk University/USA Today

• Suffolk University/USA Today found 47% of likely voters support Sen. Baldwin, while 44% back Mr. Hovde. Thomas Leager, the American First candidate, was at 2%.
• Suffolk University polled 500 likely voters from October 20-23 using live telephone interviews. The margin of error was +/- 4.4 percentage points.
• FiveThirtyEight rates Suffolk University 2.9 starts out of three.

CNN

• A new CNN poll found 49% back Sen. Baldwin, and 47% support Mr. Hovde.
• CNN had SSRS survey 736 likely Wisconsin voters between October 23-28 by inviting respondents to participate in the survey through mailed postcards, text messages, emails and phone calls. The margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
• FiveThirtyEight rates SSRS 2.4 out of three stars.

Atlas Intel

• Atlas Intel found a tight race in the Wisconsin U.S. Senate race with Sen. Baldwin at 49% and Mr. Hovde at 48.8%.
• Atlas Intel surveyed 673 likely voters from October 30-31 using random digit dial technology to reach voters by phone. The margin of error was +/- 4.4 percentage points.
• FiveThirtyEight rates Atlas Intel 2.7 stars out of three.

Baldwin releases ads

U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) released two new ads as well as a new digital ad. The 30-second ad says Eric Hovde (R) “invested millions in companies that outsourced jobs from Wisconsin.” Meanwhile, Sen. Baldwin will work for Wisconsin by promoting dairy initiatives and the iron and steel industry.

Watch the ad here.

Sen. Baldwin’s second ad, “He’s Special,” calls Eric Hovde a “walking, talking, special interest banker who will never be for you.” The narrator says Eric Hovde would not “stand up to the special interests because he is the special interests.”

Watch the ad here.

The digital ad targets Mr. Hovde as well as Phil Anderson, who is running under Disrupt the Corruption banner. The ad says Mr. Anderson will cut federal spending, fight crypto regulation, and end income taxes, and Mr. Hovde will eliminate protections for preexisting conditions, pass an abortion ban, and increase health care costs for those who are overweight.

Watch the ad here.

Baldwin and WisDems release joint ad

U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) and the Democratic Party of Wisconsin released a joint ad targeting GOP opponent Eric Hovde on his stance on abortion. The ad features the clip of Mr. Hovde saying he’s “totally opposed to abortion,” and the narrator says, “Republican extremists in the Senate already want to ban abortion nationwide.”

Watch the ad here.

Hovde launches two ads

U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde (R) is up with two new ads. The first ad charging U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) for not disclosing her partner’s assets. The ad features a 2009 hearing where Sen. Baldwin said it’s in the public interest to require partners of gay and lesbian office holders to file information about their financial assets. The ad plays another clip from the debate last month, saying Mr. Hovde should “stay out of my personal life.” The narrator of the ad says, “After 26 years in Washington, Tammy Baldwin is in it for herself. Not us. It's time for change.”

Watch the ad here.

The second ad features Mr. Hovde saying Sen. Baldwin has “led us down the wrong path.” He said we can lower costs of food and medicine and close the border. “Let's work together to restore the American dream and give our children a brighter future,” Mr. Hovde says at the end of the ad.

Watch the ad here.

WinSenate releases ad

WinSenate released a new TV ad against GOP U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde, calling him a California banker whose plan “helps him and hurts you.” The narrator says Mr. Hovde proposed $4 trillion in new tax cuts “for rich people like him,” and would raise the retirement age. “Eric Hovde, still helping himself and hurting you,” the narrator says at the end of the ad.

Watch the ad here.

Senate Leadership Fund airs ad

The Senate Leadership Fund launched a new ad. The narrator says U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin (D) supported sex change surgeries, mastectomies and castration for minors. The ad closes, “Baldwin is for they/them, not you. Our final answer: It's time to replace Tammy Baldwin.”

Watch the ad here.

Progressive Century Project PAC launches digital ads

The Progressive Century Project PAC launched digital ads, encouraging voters to tell U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin “we won’t vote for genocide.” The ad says she “has blood on her hands” for supporting Israel and funding to manufacturing weapons. “So, while Israel needs her support to continue its war of aggression, she needs ours to remain in the U.S. Senate. Tell Tammy, you won’t vote for genocide,” the narrator says. “No Tammy. No Genocide.”

Watch the ad here.

U.S. House of Representatives

3rd CD Race

Democracy First PAC Nevada airs ad targeting Van Orden

Democracy First PAC paid for an ad targeting U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) because he “doesn’t care about anyone.” The ad says he got “physically aggressive with Capitol workers” and he “doesn't care about anyone. The teenage librarian he terrified, the police barricades on Jan. 6, and in Congress, he doesn't care about you, siding with extremists who cut Social Security and kick sick folks off health care.”

Watch the ad here.

Project 218 releases new ad

Project 218 released a TV ad saying 3rd Congressional District candidate Rebecca Cooke (D-Eau Claire) “believes our parents and grandparents should be able to age with dignity.” The narrators says she’ll vote to strengthen Social Security and Medicare by allowing Medicare to negotiate lower drug costs, repealing the tax on benefits, and lowering the eligibility age.

Watch the ad here.

Upcoming Events

November 8th at 8:30 AM - Post-Election Update with the MBS Wisconsin and Federal Teams. virtual

January 15th at 11:30 AM - Meet the Cabinet: Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation Secretary Missy Hughes (virtual and in-person options available)

RSVP to Barb Stevenson at Barb.Stevenson@michaelbest.com if you'd like to attend these events

ABOUT US

If you would like any additional information about the above topic, or if you would like to find time to discuss the above matter in more detail, please do not hesitate to contact your Michael Best Strategies contact.

Have a great day, 

Wisconsin GR Team

Government Relations Team

Our Team |  michaelbeststrategies.com

One South Pickney Street, Suite 700

Madison, WI 53703

Phone: 608-257-3501

Fax: 608-283-2275