Marquette University Law School Poll released a new statewide poll on Wednesday, October 30th. Below, please find a summary of the survey's results. | |
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President Joe Biden Favorability -16%
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Favorability 41% (Was 42% in October 2nd poll)
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Unfavorability 57% (Was 56% in October 2nd poll)
President Joe Biden Job Approval -14%
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Approve 42% (Was 43% in October 2nd poll)
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Disapprove 56% (Was 56% in October 2nd poll)
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Governor Tony Evers Favorability +5%
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Favorability 49% (Was 51% in October 2nd poll)
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Unfavorability 44% (Was 42% in October 2nd poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 7%
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval +6%
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51% Approve (Was 48% in October 2nd poll)
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45% Disapprove (Was 46% in October 2nd poll)
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Senator Tammy Baldwin Favorability -5%
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Favorability 45% (Was 47% in October 2nd poll)
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Unfavorability 50% (Was 47% in October 2nd poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 5%
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Senator Ron Johnson Favorability -4%
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Favorability 41% (Was 40% in October 2nd poll)
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Unfavorability 45% (Was 49% in October 2nd poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 13%
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Vote preference for President among likely voters
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Kamala Harris: 50% (Was 52% in October 2nd poll)
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Donald Trump: 49% (Was 48% in October 2nd poll)
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Vote preference for U.S. Senate among likely voters
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Tammy Baldwin: 51% (Was 53% in October 2nd poll)
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Eric Hovde: 49% (Was 46% in October 2nd poll)
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Marquette University Law School released a second October poll this Wednesday. Below, please find the methodology of the poll as released by the Law School in their press release:
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The poll interviewed 834 registered Wisconsin voters between October 16-24, 2024. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the full sample. The sample contains 753 likely voters, with a margin of error for +/- 4.4 percentage points.
The partisan makeup of the sample is 36% Republican, 31% Democratic and 34% independent. The interviews were conducted online with 725 respondents and with 109 by telephone using live interviewers.
Complete results can be found here:
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President Joe Biden
President Joe Biden Job Approval -14%
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Approve 42% (Was 43% in October 2nd poll)
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Disapprove 56% (Was 56% in October 2nd poll)
President Joe Biden Favorability -16%
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Favorability 41% (Was 42% in October 2nd poll)
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Unfavorability 57% (Was 56% in October 2nd poll)
The MU Law School Poll found that 42% of registered voters approve of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president, and 56% disapprove of the way he is handling his job, a net -14% in job approval.
For comparison, in the last MU Law School survey in early October 2024, 43% of registered voters approved of the job the president was doing and 56% disapproved of the way he was handling the job, a net -13% approval.
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President Biden’s personal favorability is similar to his job approval with 41% of registered voters having a favorable opinion of him and 57% having an unfavorable opinion of him, a net -16% favorability. His net favorability is two points worse than the October 2nd poll, which found that 42% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of the President and 56% had an unfavorable opinion, a net -14% favorability.
Among voters who identified as Democrats, President Biden is viewed favorably by 83% and unfavorably by 14%. Independents were 38% favorable and 59% unfavorable, while Republicans were 4% favorable and 95% unfavorable.
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Senator Tammy Baldwin
Senator Tammy Baldwin Favorability -5%
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Favorability 45% (Was 47% in October 2nd poll)
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Unfavorability 50% (Was 47% in October 2nd poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 5%
45% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Democratic US Senator Tammy Baldwin and 50% have an unfavorable opinion of her. Sen. Baldwin’s net favorability dropped between the October 2nd poll and October 30th polls by 5 percentage-points.
About 88% of Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 51% of Independents and 5% of Republicans.
About 5% of Democrats said they had an unfavorable opinion of Baldwin, compared to 39% of Independents and 92% of Republicans.
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Senator Ron Johnson
Senator Ron Johnson Favorability -4%
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Favorability 41% (Was 40% in October 2nd poll)
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Unfavorability 45% (Was 49% in October 2nd poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 13%
41% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Republican US Senator Ron Johnson and 45% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
About 76% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 35% of Independents and 5% of Democrats.
About 10% of Republicans had an unfavorable opinion of Johnson, compared to 46% of Independents and 84% of Democrats.
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Governor Tony Evers
Governor Tony Evers Favorability +5%
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Favorability 49% (Was 51% in October 2nd poll)
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Unfavorability 44% (Was 42% in October 2nd poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 7%
Governor Tony Evers Job Approval +6%
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51% Approve (Was 48% in October 2nd poll)
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45% Disapprove (Was 46% in October 2nd poll)
49% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Governor Evers and 44% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Evers’ net favorability decreased 4 percentage-points between the poll earlier this month and now, going from +9% to +5%.
91% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they had a favorable opinion of Evers, compared to 52% of independents and 11% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
82% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they had an unfavorable opinion of Evers, compared to 35% of independents and 3% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
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Governor Tony Evers’ job approval has increased with 51% of registered voters saying they approve of the job Governor Evers is doing and 45% saying they disapprove (+6% net approval). This is up from the October 2nd survey when 48% said they approved and 46% disapproved of the job Gov. Evers was doing (a net +2% approval).
90% of Democrats and leaning Democrats said they approved of Evers, compared to 58% of Independents and 13% of Republicans and leaning Republicans.
83% of Republicans and leaning Republicans said they disapproved of Evers, compared to 37% of Independents and 5% of Democrats and leaning Democrats.
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Presidential Election
Respondents were asked “If you had to choose, would you vote for [Harris] or for [Trump]?”
Vote preference for President among likely voters (head-to-head)
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Kamala Harris: 50% (Was 52% in October 2nd poll)
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Donald Trump: 49% (Was 48% in October 2nd poll)
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Respondents were asked “Who would you vote for if the candidates were [Democrat Kamala Harris], [Republican Donald Trump], [independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr], [Libertarian Chase Oliver], [the Green Party’s Jill Stein], [Constitution Party’s Randall Terry], or [independent Cornel West]?”
Vote preference for President among likely voters
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Kamala Harris: 46% (Was 49% in October 2nd poll)
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Donald Trump: 44% (Was 44% in October 2nd poll)
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 5% (Was 3% in October 2nd poll)
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Chase Oliver: 2% (Was 1% in October 2nd poll)
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Stein: 1% (Was 1% in October 2nd poll)
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Terry: 0% (Was 1% in October 2nd poll)
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Cornel West: 1% (Was 0% in October 2nd poll)
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Vice President Kamala Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris Favorability -5%
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Favorability 47% (Was 47% in October 2nd poll)
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Unfavorability 52% (Was 50% in October 2nd poll)
- Haven’t heard enough 2%
47% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of Vice President Kamala Harris and 52% have an unfavorable opinion of her. Harris’ net favorability has decreased to -5%, two points worse than the net -3% favorability that she had in the early October poll.
About 5% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Harris, compared to 53% of Independents and 91% of Democrats.
About 94% of Republicans had an unfavorable opinion of Harris, compared to 46% of Independents and 6% of Democrats.
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Former President Donald Trump
Former President Donald Trump Favorability -14%
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Favorability 43% (Was 44% in October 2nd poll)
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Unfavorability 57% (Was 55% in October 2nd poll)
43% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of former President Donald Trump and 57% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Trump’s net favorability has decreased to -14%, three points worse than the net -11% favorability that he had in the first October poll.
About 86% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Trump, compared to 26% of Independents and 0% of Democrats.
About 14% of Republicans had an unfavorable opinion of Trump, compared to 73% of Independents and 100% of Democrats.
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U.S. Senate Election
Respondents were asked “If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today ... would you vote for [Hovde] or for [Baldwin]?”
Vote preference for U.S. Senate among likely voters
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Tammy Baldwin: 51% (Was 53% in October 2nd poll)
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Eric Hovde: 49% (Was 46% in October 2nd poll)
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GOP Senate Candidate Eric Hovde
Eric Hovde Favorability -12%
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Favorability 36% (Was 36% in October 2nd poll)
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Unfavorability 48% (Was 45% in October 2nd poll)
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Haven’t heard enough 15% (Was 18% in October 2nd poll)
36% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of GOP U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde and 48% have an unfavorable opinion of him.
About 72% of Republicans said they had a favorable opinion of Hovde, compared to 19% of Independents and 1% of Democrats.
About 7% of Republicans had an unfavorable opinion of Hovde, compared to 58% of Independents and 90% of Democrats.
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Right Direction-Wrong Track:
When asked “do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?” 44% of registered voters said Wisconsin is going in the “right direction” and 55% said it is on the “wrong track.”
Views largely broke down along partisan lines:
- Republican: 18% right direction | 81% wrong track
- Democrat: 71% right direction | 28% wrong track
- Independent: 46% right direction | 54% wrong track
In the October 2nd 2024 poll, 44% said that Wisconsin was going in the right direction and 56% said it was on the wrong track. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, 61% said it was going in the right direction and 30% said it was on the wrong track.
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State of Nation’s Economy:
Respondents were asked "How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?” 39% of registered voters described the nation’s economy as “excellent” or “good” while 62% described it as “not so good” or “poor.” In September 2024, 37% said the nation’s economy was excellent or good and 63% said it was not so good or poor.
Political affiliation had a significant impact on a respondent’s view of the nation’s economy with Republicans having a more pessimistic view compared to Democrats:
Excellent: 6% (GOP: 1% | Independents: 8% | Dems: 11%)
Good: 33% (GOP: 9% | Independents: 34% | Dems: 58%)
Not so good: 30% (GOP: 37% | Independents: 29% | Dems: 22%)
Poor: 32% (GOP: 53% | Independents: 29% | Dems: 9%)
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Most important issue 2024
Respondents were asked to identify the issue that will be important to them in deciding their vote for president in 2024. The economy ranks as the most important issue with 38% of registered voters saying it is the most important issue followed by abortion policy at 15%, and immigration and border security at 13%. This is similar to the early October poll results when 37% of registered voters ranked the economy as the most important issue followed by abortion policy at 15%, immigration & border security at 15%, and Medicare & Social Security at 9%.
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The top two issues that Republicans view as most important are the economy (53%) and immigration and border security (25%). Democrats, on the other hand, say the most important issues are abortion policy (26%) and the economy (21%). Meanwhile, Independents align more closely with Republicans on the top issue, saying the most important issues are the economy (40%) and Healthcare (11%). | |
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If you would like any additional information about the above topic, or if you would like to find time to discuss the above matter in more detail, please do not hesitate to contact your Michael Best Strategies contact.
Have a great day,
Wisconsin GR Team
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One South Pickney Street, Suite 700
Madison, WI 53703
Phone: 608-257-3501
Fax: 608-283-2275
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