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China steps up stimulus after murky GDP.

China’s central bank vowed to offer more easing and support after GDP clocked in with figures that were good, but not great. Asia’s biggest economy grew slightly faster than anticipated in the July-September quarter, but that wasn’t enough to keep the country on track to reach its annual target, even with better-than-projected retail sales and industrial output. Still, the PBOC’s actions, on top of already announced stimulus measures, helped assuage concerns and lifted global stocks.

Gold topped $2,700 an ounce for the first time as investors flocked to safety. Behind the rally are concerns over escalating conflicts in the Middle East, even though there are macro headwinds that would normally weigh on the precious metal. That underscores broader worry over geopolitical events and economic uncertainty.

In a new twist to the war in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said North Korea is getting ready to send 10,000 troops to help Russia fight its war against his country. If confirmed, the deployment would mark a major step in Pyongyang’s cooperation with Moscow after Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un agreed in June to provide immediate military assistance if one of them is attacked.

All politics, the saying goes, is local. Is the same true of economics? In the past, not so much. Right now, more and more. Photo: Casey Zhang | Bloomberg Businessweek. Prop stylist: Susie Francis

Strange things

Major economies across the world are in very different places. Some have grappled with unwanted inflation (the US, Europe); others welcome rising prices (Japan), and others are still facing deflation (China). As a result, the world’s biggest central banks are no longer marching to the Fed’s beat. And strange things happen when pathways diverge. (Bloomberg Businessweek | Oct 16)

Shakeup in bond futures stands to reignite burned Treasury trade

The unwinding of positions in Treasury futures stands to rekindle a popular bond-market wager that’s been burned as traders pare back expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The recalibration is pushing firms to unwind leveraged positions, with some closing out bets against short-dated Treasuries and others unwinding bullish trades on longer-dated bonds. That’s expected to keep fueling the buying of shorter bonds and sales of longer-maturity ones, widening the gap between the two. (Bloomberg Markets - Bonds | Oct 16)

Why Wall Street is warming to the tokenization of assets

Cryptocurrencies were invented during the 2008-2009 financial crisis to provide an alternative to banks. Many banks and financial institutions on Wall Street that initially scoffed at the dreams of devotees known as “cypherpunks” some 15 years ago are now not only in the cryptocurrency business, but they’re also beginning to adopt the underlying blockchain technology. (Bloomberg Markets | Oct 16)

Banks' exposure to private credit is rising, Moody's says

Banks are upping their exposure to private credit by funding the $1.7 trillion sector’s largest lenders, according to a report from Moody’s Ratings. Across 32 banks, Moody’s found average annual lending grew 18% between 2021 and 2023, in lock-step with the 19% increase in capital raising from private credit funds over the same period, according to the report released Tuesday. (Bloomberg Markets | Oct 15)

IMF says global public debt to top $100 trillion, growth may accelerate

The world's total public debt is set to exceed $100 trillion this year for the first time, and may grow more quickly than forecast as political sentiment favors higher spending and slow growth amplifies borrowing needs and costs, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday. The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor report showed that global public debt will reach 93% of global gross domestic product by the end of 2024 and approach 100% by 2030. That would exceed its 99% peak during COVID-19. It would also be up ten percentage points from 2019, before the pandemic exploded government spending. (Reuters | Oct 15)

CMBS special servicing rate sees ninth consecutive month increase

The CMBS special servicing rate has jumped for the ninth consecutive month, according to the most recent analysis by Trepp. The overall rate across all property categories was 8.79%, an increase of 192 basis points over the last year. From low to high, here are the rates for individual property types and how much they've increased over the last year: industrial, 0.50% from 0.32%; multifamily, 6.07%, from 3.14%; lodging, 7.84% from 7.24%; mixed-use, 9.67% from 7.19%; retail, 11.22% from 10.14%; and office, 12.58% from 8.34%. (Globest | Oct 14)

The day is coming when quantum computers will break even the strongest encryption algorithms that companies and governments use today, industry experts say. Photo: Thomas R. Lechleiter | The Wall Street Journal

'Q Day' is coming. It's time to worry about quantum security.

Quantum computing will eventually crush today’s best encryption algorithms — meaning hackers could steal protected data now and crack it open later. It isn’t certain when quantum computers will be able to break the encryption used to protect the world’s most sensitive data. Still, corporate technology leaders need to assess the risks of this scenario now. Quantum physics, famously regarded by Albert Einstein as “spooky,” has always fed the imagination with the promise of unimaginable future technological prowess.

— The Wall Street Journal

For some companies, the real cost of a cyberattack is telling everyone about it

 Federal regulators and all 50 US states have laws requiring companies to notify people when their information has been breached, many even specifying the class of mail to be used. The cost of all those letters adds up. Sometimes, it’s a crippling blow.

— The Wall Street Journal

CISA, FBI, NSA offer guidance on Iranian cyber actors using brute force

Iranian hackers are targeting account passwords in key critical infrastructure sectors, using brute-force attacks to collect them, according to a CISA warning Wednesday from the US, Australia, and Canada. Healthcare, tech, and energy are especially targeted.

—  CISA, FBI, NSA