It will be hard to remember 2020 for anything other than the pandemic: it was the defining experience for all sectors of the publishing industry, with distinct winners and losers.

Winner: Book sales across all formats

In the spring, during the first lockdowns, more than a few major publishers and bookstores furloughed their staff, reduced salaries, and braced themselves for the worst. But as the year wore on and the supply chain found its footing, a happy trend emerged: book sales were looking positive against 2019. Sales accelerated in the fall—helped by the release of a few notable political titles—and in the US, print sales are on track to be up by 8 percent, if not more, for the year. This is an astonishing result for a mature industry that often sees flat growth and considers it a success if sales drop by only a percentage point. Digital sales are up as well, which—combined with fewer print returns—has given publishers a more favorable profit margin. It’s expected that digital sales, particularly in Europe, will continue at a new, higher rate than before; the pandemic has converted some of those “never ever” ebook purchasers into readers now open to digital formats.

Loser: Independent bookstores

Independent bookstores have been severely challenged during the pandemic, whether or not they were prepared with ecommerce capabilities. On average, bookstore sales are down by about 30 percent this year, and the American Booksellers Association believes that 20 percent of stores may close as a result; 58 ABA member bookstores have closed already. After the holiday season (the best sales months of the year for most retailers), we may see the first quarter of 2021 bring a round of closures. Some stores—especially those with recognizable names—have been buttressed by crowdfunding campaigns and charitable giving.

Winner: Bookshop

The virtuous alternative to Amazon launched in January 2020 without any idea of just how fortuitous its timing would be. The online retailer meant to financially benefit independent bookstores has no warehousing costs; its storefront shuttles orders directly to Ingram for fulfillment. It will probably do about $50 million in business in 2020—a tremendous success for its first year out. About 70 percent of Bookshop sales involve people ordering from and supporting their local bookstores, and the site has delivered about $10 million directly into independent bookstores’ pockets. However, the site is not without its critics; some independent bookstores say Bookshop doesn’t divert business away from Amazon—it diverts business from their local store.

Loser: Industry trade shows

It’s amazing to look back and see that, as of March 3, London Book Fair was still planning to move ahead as scheduled. Reed Exhibitions, which puts on London Book Fair, canceled it only after all major publishers had pulled out. It is still attempting to salvage a 2021 event by moving it into late June, but some agents and publishers have already said they will not attend. By the summer, Reed Exhibitions reported a revenue drop of more than 70 percent, and by fall, it announced it would “retire” BookExpo and BookCon in the US. Meanwhile, Frankfurt Book Fair transitioned its October event—the biggest trade fair of the publishing industry—to a mostly virtual affair. However, Frankfurt just recently announced significant cuts and restructuring, which included closing its New York office. It says it’s going “back to basics.”

Winner: Dealmaking while working from home

Dealmaking for traditional publishers has remained stable, at least based on reports received by Publishers Marketplace, which has tracked such activity for 20 years. While dealmaking was flat over the last five years, deal reports grew by 11.5 percent this year versus last year—the second highest total in the past decade. Deal growth was driven by nonfiction and children’s books, while fiction deals were in line with the four-year average. Debut fiction deals were double their usual level, with women’s fiction/romance deals up by 30 percent over 2019.

Loser: Educational publishers

Amid soaring sales of juvenile books from trade publishers—the kind of books that parents use to help with home-schooling or to keep kids entertained—sales of textbooks and related materials declined with schools closed. Most educational publishers have seen declining print revenue for years now, as students’ buying behavior shifts. With so much remote and online learning this year, that trend has only accelerated. The silver lining: Transition to digital content is necessary for survival, and so far publishers’ investment in digital solutions is paying off.

Winner: Digital subscription services

Audiobook and ebook subscription service Storytel—popular in Europe—has seen its subscriber base grow to 1.36 million paying subscribers this year, exceeding its own forecasts; its sales have surpassed physical bookstore sales in Sweden. However, Penguin Random House pulled English-language titles from the service, as well as from smaller outfits like Scribd, in January 2020. (PRH titles remain available from subscription services that have limitations on listening, such as Audible, Libro.fm, and Audiobooks.com, as well as libraries.) The CEO of Storytel believes that unit sales are no longer what matters for market growth: subscription services are prevalent across all entertainment industries and offer what people expect. Even Audible, known for sticking to its pay-per-book model in Anglophone markets, launched this year in Spain with an unlimited subscription service.

Loser: Book printers

The biggest printer in the US, LSC Communications, filed for bankruptcy in April 2020; it has now sold off its assets to a private equity group, Atlas Holdings. (Atlas already owns other manufacturing and distribution businesses, including paper producers.) At the time of the filing, LSC employed 22,000 people and carried nearly a billion dollars in debt. The second largest printer, Quad, also closed and sold off its book printing operations, partly to Bertelsmann, the parent company of Penguin Random House. The closures added to supply chain uncertainty and a tight printing market during an already precarious year.

The pandemic has boosted sales for the online retailer, increasing revenue by 37 percent overall; for the fourth quarter, Amazon projects top-line growth between 28 and 38 percent. However, 2020 also brought much greater antitrust scrutiny for Amazon—and for all of Big Tech—especially in the US and Europe. Such cases will likely take years to play out.

Bottom line: Despite tightness in the printing and paper market, Amazon’s brief de-prioritization of books during lockdown, and new pandemic safety protocols, books largely still got printed, shipped, and delivered within reasonable timeframes. Ingram’s print-on-demand capabilities helped ensure that spikes in demand—particularly in June for anti-racism books—could be met, and the company announced investment in more global POD facilities. Ingram also was the backbone of Bookshop’s success. Unfortunately, independent authors using IngramSpark saw their turnaround times lengthen, and some independent bookstores believed—accurately or not—their orders weren’t prioritized in the same way as larger accounts. Still, despite these blips, both the US and UK saw book sales increase in part because myriad supply chain challenges were addressed by wholesalers and distributors like Ingram and Gardners, retailers of all kinds, publishers of all sizes, and warehouse and delivery workers.