Real News You Can Use

Vol 10, Issue #7, Wednesday, July 1, 2026

The Housing Market Isn’t Frozen,

It’s Unevenly Stuck

by Jim Coen & Co-Pilot AI,

Communications Director, Hickman-Coen Home Team

Today’s low home sales are less about missing buyers and

more about missing sellers.

For months, national headlines have described the 2026 housing market as “frozen,” implying that buyers have disappeared and activity has stalled. But that framing misses the real story — especially here in Massachusetts and Greater Boston. The market isn’t frozen. It’s unevenly stuck because sellers are holding back, not because buyers have vanished.

Across the country, buyers are active. Mortgage rates have eased from their 2025 highs, wages have grown, and affordability has improved for eight consecutive months. Even so, home sales remain historically low. The disconnect comes down to one powerful force: homeowners locked into ultra-low mortgage rates who simply don’t want to give them up.

The Lock‑In Effect: Sellers Are Stuck, Not Buyers

Between 2020 and 2021, millions of Americans secured mortgage rates between 2.5% and 3.5%. Today’s average 30‑year rate sits around 6.38%. That’s far better than last year, but still high enough to make moving financially painful to many households.

This “lock‑in effect” is the single biggest reason home sales are low. Homeowners aren’t listing because selling means trading a once‑in‑a‑generation rate for a much higher payment. As a result, inventory is deeply constrained, especially in the Northeast.

Existing‑home sales are stuck near decade lows.
Buyers who are ready to move face limited choices.

Demand hasn’t vanished — supply has.

Massachusetts and Greater Boston: A Case Study in “Stuck”

Few places illustrate this pattern more clearly than Massachusetts. The Commonwealth has some of the lowest inventory levels in the country, and Greater Boston is among the most supply-constrained metro areas in the Northeast.

Homeowners here are holding onto their pandemic‑era rates, and the chain effects are everywhere:

Listings remain scarce: New listings in Massachusetts continue to trail pre‑2020 norms.
Prices stay elevated: Limited supply keeps values high, even as rates ease.
Buyers are motivated but limited: Life‑driven buyers — new jobs, growing families, downsizing — are active, but choices are limited.

Greater Boston’s walkable neighborhoods, strong schools, and transit access keep demand steady. But with so few sellers entering the market, competition remains intense for well-priced homes.

A Market Split in Two

The 2026 housing market is not uniformly cold. It’s uneven — thawing in some places, stuck in others because inventory and seller behavior differ by region.

Northeast & Midwest (including Massachusetts): Inventory stays tight, keeping prices elevated and limiting buyer choice.
South & West: Inventory has expanded thanks to new construction and more sellers entering the market. Prices are cooling in cities like Austin, Phoenix, and Tampa.
New‑Home Market: Builders are offering incentives, and new‑home sales are up nearly 19% year‑over‑year — one of the few bright spots in an otherwise sluggish environment.

This unevenness explains why some buyers feel like the market is loosening while others feel stuck. It depends entirely on where you’re looking — and what you’re looking for.

Life Events Are Quietly Re‑Starting the Market

Even with affordability challenges, life doesn’t pause. Marriage, divorce, new children, aging parents, and job relocations are pushing households back into the market after years of delay.

Demographics are also working in the market’s favor. More than 50 million Americans are now in their 30s, entering prime home‑buying years. This wave of demand is steady, not speculative, and it will continue to mold the market through 2026 and beyond.

What This Means for Massachusetts Homeowners

For homeowners in Greater Boston and across Massachusetts, this environment can be surprisingly advantageous:

Low inventory means less competition from other sellers.
Buyers are motivated by life events, not speculation.
Well‑priced homes still attract strong attention and quick offers.

For buyers, preparation and patience matter. The market isn’t frozen — it’s constrained. When the right home appears, acting decisively is key.

The Bottom Line

Today’s housing market isn’t suffering from a lack of buyers. It’s suffering from a lack of sellers. As mortgage rates gradually ease and life events continue to nudge households forward, the “stuck” market will slowly unfreeze — unevenly, but steadily.

Whether you’re considering your real estate options or simply want to stay informed about the Greater Boston real estate landscape, we are here to help. Reach out anytime for insights, guidance, or a conversation about your real estate goals. Thank you for trusting the Hickman-Coen Home Team—your success is our top priority.

Call or Text: Karen Hickman, 617-821-1665 or

Helen Coen, 617-416-8173

Boston Rents are Going Down

In the Boston, MA, metropolitan area, the median asking rent for May 2026 dropped to $2,929. This price represents a 3.7% decline year-over-year, showing a cooler pricing environment for local tenants.

Renter search traffic shows that Boston maintains a relatively balanced mix of internal and external interest. Local residents generate 53.7% of the online rental views within the metro area.

Meanwhile, out-of-market renters looking to move into Boston account for 46.3% of the online rental views.

Mortgage Rates Shift After Inflation Update

Sure, rising inflation is bad news all around. But what does the latest PCE have to do with mortgage rates?

The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric for tracking inflation, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. The central bank watches this index to see whether inflation moves closer to its target of 2%.

Sky-high inflation is bad news for the federal funds rate, and the Fed could take action that will ultimately push up mortgage rates.

Six Prominent Boston Office-to-Residential Conversions

The city's conversion program is in full swing, with a total of 28 applicants since launch.

Boston launched its office conversions program in 2023, joining the list of major metros that saw this process as a way to mitigate the sector’s economic impact and to add much-needed housing. After the prototype program exceeded initial targets, the administration expanded it to target even larger projects.

We took a closer look at six of these developments that are representative for the city’s conversions program, as they vary in size, scope and complexity. These six projects are set to add 699 units to the market once complete. Leveraging Yardi Matrix data, we also analyzed the assets’ Conversion Feasibility Index (CFI), a tool that assesses the potential of office buildings to be converted into residential use.

Rent Control Won’t Appear on the Ballot in Massachusetts

The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court struck down a proposed rent control initiative from appearing on the November ballot in Massachusetts.

The court disqualified Initiative Petition 25-21 based on the measure’s exemption for facilities operated solely for religious purposes, something the court argued “‘relates to religion, religious practices or religious institutions,’ an excluded matter under [article] 48 of the Amendments to the Massachusetts Constitution.”

Essentially, the court found, by carving out an exemption for religious facilities, “the petition would confer preferential treatment on religious institutions by allowing them to increase rent prices, while limiting rent increases for secular facilities.”

Hickman-Coen

Home Team

May 2026 Activity!

FOR SALE

SOLD

Dorchester

$559,000

45 Shaker Lane

Littleton

$585,000

Brook House

33 Pond Avenue #1106

Brookline

$510,000

8 Sping Garden #2

Dorchester

$540,000

FOR RENT

10 Spring Garden #3

Savin Hill, Dorchester

$5000

For More Information...

Call or Text:

Karen Hickman,

617-821-1665 or

Helen Coen,

617-416-8173

Neighborhood Housing

Market Reports

for May 2026

Look at each neighborhood's current average Listing Price, $ Per Sq Ft., # of Listings, Ave. Sq. Ft., Days on Mkt. Etc.

June 2026,

Market Reports will be available

July 15th, 2026.

Simply click on the neighborhood below that interests you! You can choose from Single Family, Condominium, or Multi-Unit at February 2026 Market

Reports:

Boston:

Hyde Park, Jamaica Plain, Roslindale,

Greater Boston:

Click Here to see a market report for a Massachusetts city, town or neighborhood not listed above!

Three Homeowners Who Scored Lower Mortgage Rates — and How They Did It

Buying a home is just as much about life’s circumstances as it is about math. Maameefua Koomson wanted to establish a home base where she could host her siblings. Sean Stoyanowski was eyeing a forever home with room to grow his family. Garrett Duyck wanted stability for his four kids.

Recent Bankrate research finds Americans are systematically overpaying for mortgages, costing them $65 billion more per year than if they’d gotten the lowest mortgage rate available to them. But there are things you can do to achieve the American Dream without the extra cost. Koomson, Stoyanowski and Duyck each did something as simple as it is effective: they compared more than one mortgage rate before buying — a step experts agree can help you secure a lower rate.

Six ways to keep your home and yourself cool in hot weather

When temperatures soar, you can quickly cool down your space and body by blocking the sun from your windows, optimizing ceiling fans, shifting to cold meals, and using cool water on your pulse points.

If you are dealing with a severe heat wave and need to find a public, air-conditioned facility, you can check your City of Boston Centers for Youth & Families for a list of local community centers and cooling stations.

Boston JuLY Events

Patriotism abounds in Boston as July kicks off with special events like Boston Harborfest, the big annual July 4th Boston Pops concert at the Hatch Shell, and a spectacular fireworks display over the Charles River, that can be viewed from either shore.

Other top July events include Sand Castle Festivals at Boston beaches, Free Friday Flicks at the Hatch Shell, Shakespeare on the Common, and a Pizza Festival on City Hall Plaza.