CALCAP CONNECTIONS

March 2024

Principal's Corner

Rent Growth Tepid as Supply Weighs on Market 



According to a recent report from RealPage Analytics, U.S. apartment rents saw another month of minimal growth in February 2024, increasing just 0.2% year-over-year and month-over-month. The stagnant growth continues a trend of muted rent increases dating back to mid-2023 as elevated supply levels put downward pressure on rents. National apartment occupancy stabilized at 94.1% for the third straight month, though the record 962,000 units under construction at end of 2023 will likely keep weighing on rent growth throughout the year.


Markets with the biggest rent declines in February exemplify the impact of new supply. Development hotspots like Austin (-6.7%), Jacksonville, Nashville, Orlando, Phoenix, Salt Lake City and Raleigh saw some of the steepest annual rent cuts. Austin's 6.0% inventory growth in 2023 and pipeline for 11.2% more units in 2024 highlight the supply deluge in many Sun Belt markets. In contrast, the more modestly supplied Northeast (2.7% rent growth) and Midwest (2.8%) regions saw some of the strongest increases, led by Virginia Beach (5.6%), Washington DC (4.9%), Cincinnati (4.7%) and Milwaukee (4.4%).



While occupancy fell year-over-year in most areas, a few including San Francisco (95.5%), West Palm Beach and Virginia Beach posted modest increases under 1 percentage point. San Francisco and Virginia Beach were the only major markets to see improvement in both rents and occupancy from last year's levels as of February 2024. With elevated deliveries expected in 2024, tepid rent growth nationwide is forecasted to continue as markets work through excess supply.

Edward M. Aloe

President and CEO

626-229-9057

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Renters gain financial edge over homebuyers in key U.S. markets


In all 50 of the largest metro areas, it was more affordable to rent than to buy in February 2024


report released Tuesday by Realtor.com highlights a significant disparity in costs between buying and renting a starter home across the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas. As of February 2024, the monthly cost of purchasing a starter home surpassed that of renting by $1,027, a 60.1% difference. 


Notably, renting emerged as the most affordable option across all 50 major metros, an increase from 45 metros in February 2023. Cities such as Memphis, Tennessee; Birmingham, Alabama; Pittsburgh; St. Louis; and Baltimore transitioned over the previous 12 months from markets that favor buyers to ones that favor renters. 


Within the top 10 metros that favor renting over buying, the disparity in monthly payments for a starter home compared to rents was stark. With average monthly payments for a starter home exceeding rents by $1,950, or 95.6%, these markets are popular among tech workers and other high-earning professionals. 


View Article Here

AI isn’t just a buzzword to these housing executives


How six companies are leveraging artificial intelligence


Are you intrigued by AI or tired of hearing about it? At the recent ICE experience conference, I talked to a lot of mortgage lenders and tech folks about what’s making a difference in their businesses. Many were excited about the current or potential use cases for artificial intelligence, while others were a bit more jaded. Will AI turn out to be just the latest buzzword, akin to blockchain and cloud computing in years past?


I’ve interviewed more than 25 tech executives since September for HousingWire’s HousingStack newsletter and to a person they are bullish on AI. Many of these executives are already seeing efficiencies and real gains from AI. Others are in the process of leveraging it for bigger projects and better ROI. Below are excerpts that show how some of those executives are using AI. You can find every interview here


Chad Roffers, Concierge Auctions CEO:

We’re in an environment that is hyper-competitive. In the past, industries would drive technological change — a consumer didn’t realize they needed something until industry built it. But now, especially in real estate, the consumer is pulling the industry along. The consumers want the benefits of tech they have in other aspects of their lives and they are the ones demanding tech innovations. The people and companies in the real estate industry who are recognizing that and accepting it and getting on with it rather that working like they did 10 years ago are the people who are winning.


View Article Here

Mortgage rates rise following a surge in Treasury yields


Supply is also increasing, with Altos Research showing 24% more homes on the market than a year ago


Mortgage rates rose this week as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note inched up. As of Monday, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was about 4.25%, according to Tradeweb, up from 3.86% at the end of last year. 


As a result, HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.16% on Tuesday, up from 7.07% one week earlier. At the same time one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.53%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.51% on Tuesday, up from 6.5% one week earlier.


“The 10-year yield is up a few basis points this week as the market gets ready to digest the next big piece of economic data: Friday’s PCE inflation report. As the 10-year yield moves higher, mortgage pricing should move with it, but the mortgage spreads are having a good week, which is encouraging news,” HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami said.



View Article Here

On the lighter side...

About CALCAP Advisors

About CALCAP

California Capital Real Estate Advisors, Inc., and its affiliate entities (CALCAP Asset Management, CALCAP Properties, CALCAP Lending, CALCAP Senior Healthcare, and CALCAP Strategic Opportunities, collectively known as “CALCAP”), is a California-based investment company founded in 2008 and headquartered in Pasadena, California. The Company sponsors alternative real estate investment opportunities focused on demographically driven housing. CALCAP has been able to consistently provide both individual and institutional investors with outstanding returns over the last 14 years. The Company uses a highly selective and disciplined investment approach, focused on delivering superior risk-adjusted returns. CALCAP currently has over $650mm in Assets Under Management. To learn more visit www.calcap.com.


Social Mission

CALCAP CARES is a 501(c)(3) private foundation organized to encourage employees to find a way to give back to the neighborhoods where we invest. CALCAP has created "GiveTime4Autism" as its initial program which gives employees the opportunity to donate unused vacation and sick days for a very worthy cause.

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The Sanborn House

65 N. Catalina Avenue   

Pasadena, CA 91106


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San Diego, CA 92130 


PHOENIX

740 N. 52nd Street

Phoenix, AZ 85008 


SANTA BARBARA

1309 State Street, Suite A

Santa Barbara, CA 93101




Edward M. Aloe, Founder & CEO

(626) 229-9057

 ed.aloe@calcap.com



Patrick A. Wakeman, Principal

(858) 764-4890

pat.wakeman@calcap.com


Drew Buccino, Principal and COO

(602) 419-3381

drew.buccino@calcap.com


Greg Blix,Dir. of Investor Relations

(805) 896-8500

greg.blix@calcap.com


Mark A. Mozilo, Principal
(626) 229-9056

View our website: www.calcap.com

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