Total Residential Sales:
The last five months have been the busiest period the Tahoe Truckee real estate market has ever seen. In mid-May, activity surged and hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down.
Before 2020, the record for the number of sales in a single month was 182 (August 2017). We have blown by that number in each of the last three months. In July, 292 residences were sold in the primary market areas (Emerald Bay to Crystal Bay, Squaw, Alpine, Northstar, Truckee, and Donner Summit). That’s 60% higher than the old record!! August promptly followed suit with 265 residential sales, which is 46% higher than the previous record. More of the same in September, with 288 sales, which is 58% higher than the old record. October is poised to approach a similar number of closings, and November numbers should be high as well.
Third-quarter total transactions add up to 841, which is 85% higher than the average for the previous five years and more than double the ten-year average.
Year to Date (January through September), 1,406 residences have been sold. That is already more sales than the entire year of 2019 (when there were 1,399 sales). It is also a 42% increase over the same period last year (989 sales) and brings us to 139% of the ten year average for the period (1,011). For perspective, at the end of May, we were at 86% of the ten year average for closed sales YTD.
Active Residential Inventory:
Active Listings: There are currently just 296 residences actively for sale, down from 588 at this time last year. Contrary to what you might think at first glance, the number of new listings in 2020 is up almost 13% compared to the same period last year. Typically the number of new listings dwindles after Labor Day. However, this year, sellers are still entering the market to take advantage of the strong seller’s market. There were twice as many new listings, 293, in September 2020, as there were in September 2019 (141). The 293 new listings are also in the same range as what we saw in the “normal listing season” (May through August, which ranged between 265 to 340 listings each month). So, despite more homes coming on the market, our active inventory is only about 50% of what it was a year ago (and typically is at this time of year).
Coldwell Banker Ranks #1: Among all brokerages in North Lake Tahoe and Truckee, Coldwell Banker continues to rank #1 in total sales. For the previous 12 months, Coldwell Banker represented 14.04% of sales, 42% more transactions than our next closest competitor (9.91% of sales).
Median and Average Sales Prices: These numbers are changing dramatically. From January through June, the median sales price was $674,500 (up slightly from $669,000 last year), and the average sales price was $986,430 (up slightly from $975,296 last year). In the 3rd quarter, we jumped to a median of $823,000 (up 22% compared to the first half of the year) and an average of $1,221,841 (up 24%).
Sales Under $500,000: For the period January through September, residences priced under $500,000 represented just over 19% of sales or 273 properties sold. For the same period in 2019, 27% of sales were in this range.
Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999: For the same period, there were 698 sales between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 50% of total sales. For the same period in 2019, 49% of sales were in this price range.
Luxury Home Sales Over $1 Million: 435 properties have sold over $1 million, representing 31% of total sales. This is up 84% of the 236 sales in the same period in 2019 (which made up 24% of total sales).
What’s Going On Looking Forward?
The Tahoe/Truckee real estate market is evolving. In 2020 sales and listing trends have broken free from the old “normal,” both from pricing and seasonal market trends. When you break free from past trends, it becomes hard to predict what’s next. Will things mellow in late fall and early winter like they used to? Or, do both supply and demand continue to surge and allow for larger numbers of transactions during the “off-season”? Right now, it still feels like there is plenty of demand to quench and opportunistic sellers ready to probe the market. Precisely what the numbers will look like is hard to say, but we’re betting that they will continue to be significantly higher than “normal.”
What happens now? As you read above, our inventory of homes for sale is just 50% of what it usually is at this time of year, which is a slight increase from last month. From what we can see right now, the demand is keeping pace with the new listings, especially on homes under $1,000,000. Sellers with “reasonable” asking prices are still receiving multiple offers. However, we are starting to see homes that push the envelope on asking prices start to sit on the market and even undergo price reductions. We also see a little more discerning when it comes to homes that might be less desirable.
The velocity of sales is slowing, and as is typical, as fewer new buyers are entering the market, which should remain the case throughout the rest of the year. There is still pent-up demand from those already planning to purchase a home and Sellers’ to take advantage of the limited inventory.
While we wait for a vaccine, as long as COVID cases
continue to rise and remote work /distance learning
continue, we anticipate our current market
dynamics will also remain in place.
