CALCAP CONNECTIONS

November 2024

Principal's Corner

More Americans Choosing to Rent: A Shift in Housing Preferences


The American housing landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, with a growing number of individuals and families opting to rent rather than buy homes. This shift is influenced by various economic factors and evolving lifestyle preferences, leading to a notable increase in long-term renting.


Economic Factors Driving the Shift


Affordability challenges are at the forefront of this trend. Rising mortgage rates have made homeownership less attainable for many. As of November 2024, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovers around 6.84% (Reuters), significantly higher than the sub-4% rates seen in previous years. This increase translates to higher monthly payments, deterring potential buyers.

Additionally, home prices remain elevated due to limited inventory. The "lock-in effect" that we discussed in September means existing homeowners with low mortgage rates are reluctant to sell, contributing to this scarcity. Consequently, many prospective buyers find themselves priced out of the market, turning to rentals as a more viable option.


Changing Lifestyle Preferences


Beyond economic factors, lifestyle choices are influencing housing decisions. Younger generations, particularly Millennials and Gen Z, prioritize flexibility and mobility. Renting offers the freedom to relocate for career opportunities or personal preferences without the long-term commitment of homeownership. Urban living, with its proximity to amenities and vibrant communities, also appeals to many, and renting often provides easier access to such environments.


Impact on the Rental Market


This shift has led to increased demand in the rental market, particularly in urban and suburban areas with limited supply. According to recent data, renter households now account for over 36% of the U.S. population, a figure that has been steadily increasing. Moreover, higher-income households are choosing to rent, leading to a rise in luxury rental communities offering amenities such as fitness centers, coworking spaces, and concierge services. This trend indicates a shift in perception, where renting is no longer seen merely as a temporary solution but as a long-term lifestyle choice.


Implications for Multifamily Housing Investors


These trends present long-term opportunities for CALCAP, as sustained demand for rental properties ensures current oversupplied markets will get absorbed. Investors can capitalize on this trend by focusing on properties that cater to modern renters' preferences, such as those offering flexible lease terms, pet-friendly policies, and integrated technology.

Additionally, understanding the demographics and needs of the renter population is crucial. We are increasingly focused on properties located in areas with strong job growth, good schools, and access to public transportation that are likely to attract long-term tenants. We also see that investing in amenities that enhance the living experience can provide a competitive edge in the market.

Edward M. Aloe

President and CEO

626-229-9057

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Latest Headlines...

No Relief From Expenses


Another Challenging Year for Rental Housing


Most 2024 national apartment market indicators are pointing to a resilient market with sustained demand but lackluster rent growth, which is likely at or near bottom. But looking back at 2023 financial benchmarks revealed yet another challenging year for the rental housing industry, with increases in operating expenses eclipsing rent growth. 


The 2023 I/E IQ benchmarks, released in August in collaboration with the Institute of Real Estate Management (IREM) and the Building Owners and Management Association (BOMA), included operating and expenses information for over 900,000 multifamily units in more than 4,000 properties spanning 110 metro markets. 


The same-store analysis in this report includes buildings that submitted financial data to the benchmarks in 2021, 2022 and 2023, which number more than 1,500 properties in 29 metro areas. In addition, each market in the same-store sample must contain at least 20 properties to be included in the analysis.


View Article Here

Build-to-Rent Residential Market Overview


Evolving Renter Preferences Create New Investment Opportunities


BTR residential development is helping to alleviate the nation’s housing shortage. BTR properties have all the characteristics of single-family homes but are built for renters who want features not typically offered by multifamily properties.


Most BTR communities consist of 50 or more homes or townhomes that operate similarly to multifamily properties. However, unlike apartment buildings, BTR homes do not have any units attached above or below them. BTR communities generally are owned by groups of investors and are professionally managed, often with shared amenities and an on-site leasing office.


BTR is a subsector of the broader Single-Family Rental (SFR) market, which includes scattered homes for rent that are mostly owned by individual investors.


BTR is a particularly attractive option for millennials, who are reaching the prime age for major life milestones like child-rearing but can’t afford homeownership. BTR also is an appealing option for empty nesters who want the financial flexibility and lifestyle ease of renting versus owning. Both cohorts are driving strong demand for large BTR developments.


Favorable fundamentals and scaling of the BTR market over the past five years have attracted many institutional investors to the sector.


View Article Here

The Fed’s monetary policy is stifling new construction


A disappointing housing starts report adds to housing woes


We are at recessionary levels for housing permits for 5-unit housing. Anyone who thinks we are on the verge of a housing construction boom is kidding themselves, with the policy still this restrictive. Now, over time, the falling Fed funds rate can create better demand for apartment construction, but that’s not today, my friends. I am just hoping that we are closer to the bottom of housing permits for 5-unit construction, so eventually, when Fed policy is less restrictive, we can build more apartments.


“Single-family authorizations in September were at a rate of 970,000; this is 0.3 percent above the revised August figure of 967,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 398,000 in September.”


This was the most disappointing aspect of the report; I had anticipated better growth in single-family permits because the recent uptick in mortgage rates shouldn’t have been fully felt here yet. However, we know that mortgage rates above 6.75% have made the builders less enthusiastic about issuing many single-family permits. We also have to remember that smaller homebuilders don’t have the luxury of the more prominent homebuilders who are paying down mortgage rates to sell more homes. Again, it isn’t a positive for America that rates just shot up again.


View Article Here

On the lighter side...

About CALCAP Advisors

About CALCAP

California Capital Real Estate Advisors, Inc., and its affiliate entities (CALCAP Asset Management, CALCAP Properties, CALCAP Lending, CALCAP Senior Healthcare, and CALCAP Strategic Opportunities, collectively known as “CALCAP”), is a California-based investment company founded in 2008 and headquartered in Pasadena, California. The Company sponsors alternative real estate investment opportunities focused on demographically driven housing. CALCAP has been able to consistently provide both individual and institutional investors with outstanding returns over the last 14 years. The Company uses a highly selective and disciplined investment approach, focused on delivering superior risk-adjusted returns. CALCAP currently has over $650mm in Assets Under Management. To learn more visit www.calcap.com.


Social Mission

CALCAP CARES is a 501(c)(3) private foundation organized to encourage employees to find a way to give back to the neighborhoods where we invest. CALCAP has created "GiveTime4Autism" as its initial program which gives employees the opportunity to donate unused vacation and sick days for a very worthy cause.

LOS ANGELES

The Sanborn House

65 N. Catalina Avenue   

Pasadena, CA 91106


SAN DIEGO 

12626 High Bluff Drive, Suite 360

San Diego, CA 92130 


PHOENIX

740 N. 52nd Street

Phoenix, AZ 85008 


SANTA BARBARA

1309 State Street, Suite A

Santa Barbara, CA 93101




Edward M. Aloe, Founder & CEO

(626) 229-9057

 ed.aloe@calcap.com



Patrick A. Wakeman, Principal

(858) 764-4890

pat.wakeman@calcap.com


Drew Buccino, Principal and COO

(602) 419-3381

drew.buccino@calcap.com


Greg Blix,Dir. of Investor Relations

(805) 896-8500

greg.blix@calcap.com


Mark A. Mozilo, Principal
(626) 229-9056

View our website: www.calcap.com

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