David's Commentary (In Blue):
People tend to ignore the obvious. Here’s an example for you. Most of us are wired to be optimistic or pessimistic. We don’t spend any time thinking about it, but we basically fit into either category, but only one or the other. In my case, growing up I was an all-in optimist and was also very liberal; not politically because I never gave politics a second thought, but socially for sure. Someone told me, “Everyone is a liberal until they hit 30 and then they become conservative.” It took me a bit longer. My “awakening” didn’t happen until I was 41. That’s when I found employment in the precious metals industry. It didn’t take long before I drank the Kool-Aid. It all made sense to me. I became almost Evangelical with my newfound knowledge. I wanted all of my friends and family to see the light. I did open their eyes. Most of them thought I was nuts.
Getting back to the optimist or pessimist comments above, what happened to me, was my basic personality changed from positive to negative and I wasn’t even aware of it. In the winter of 1984 Susan and I were on a flight to Miami. Our seats ended up right next to Earl Freeman. He was one of the owners of Spartan Trailers. They manufactured boat trailers here in the Twin Cities. Minnesota is The Land Of 10,000 Lakes and there are boats everywhere and therefore lots of boat trailers. In the late 60s, I sold them all of their paint and we got along well. He was my only client who ever took me out to lunch (sales people always take their clients to lunch). So here we were, sitting next to each other and it was the first time in 20 years since I had seen him. We talked throughout the four-hour flight down to Miami. We talked about gold and silver and the economy, and at the end of the flight he said to me, and I’ll never forget it, “It was nice talking to you – I think.” The Doom and Gloom that is the foundation of our industry, had already become the foundation of my world-view.
So how does an optimistic liberal suddenly become a pessimistic conservative? Easy. The blinders came off. I now knew too much. I mean, how could I continue to be an optimist when I, for the first time, learned what was happening to the purchasing power of the dollar, the ballooning national debt, and the ineptitude of our elected officials? But there was one thing that I never would have imagined. Nothing happens as fast as you expect. The issues I talked about were real, and the end game is guaranteed, but the “kicking the can down the road” mechanism was something I could not possibly have factored in. I did not understand that the people with the most to lose, if fiscal sanity were to return to the market place, were the people in power. And people in power do whatever they have to in order to hold onto their power. Politicians, bankers, Wall Street firms, the military industrial complex, all of them do whatever it takes to keep the game going, a little longer. It’s been over 30 years and to put it mildly, my pessimism was a bit early. But it makes no sense. Not even in retrospect. Well, we did experience one whopper of a bull market, an 11-year bull market that was stopped in its tracks a few years ago, but the problems never went away. All that happened was that the powers that be, who were on the verge of losing it all, panicked, and with the help of the Federal Reserve, money was created at previously unimagined amounts. They even made up new names for their inflationary policies. After all, they couldn’t call it “Monetizing” or “Inflating,” so they called it Quantitative Easing, Zirp and Nirp - and created trillions upon trillions of new debt-based money to keep the game going for a while longer. It’s hard to be “right” when you are fighting the Fed and their unlimited ability to create money. But doesn’t reality still have to figure into this? Yes, at some point. And I keep thinking that the “some point” can’t be far off. The thing is, when we hit the wall, going 150 miles an hour, it will be catastrophic and instantaneous. So, as the saying goes, in my case at least, “better late than never.” And there are always those who love to remind me that I am late! But I am a believer. My views are based on fact and logic. Only manipulation stands in the way of the ending I expect and where we are now. And the longer it takes for that “reality” to become THE reality, the better. I am in no hurry to cash in on my financial insurance portfolio.
The articles that follow focus on the Fed’s balance sheet nightmare. They cannot reduce it without pulling the plug on the stock market and the economy. This is their worst nightmare.
Here is the trap the Fed finds itself in. While nearly quintupling the money supply, through QE1, 2 and 3, the Fed promised us it would 'normalize' by selling off all of the assets it hoovered up from the market. But its recent capitulation has unveiled the lie -- the Fed can neither raise interest rates nor reduce its balance sheet without killing the economy. There will be no 'normalization'.
From here on out, it's going to be ever more easy credit and ever more stimulus until the economy collapses under the weight of Too Much Debt. On that journey, the purchasing power of the US dollar is going to be destroyed.
There's no doubt in my mind that 'da boyz' are using this dollar 'rally' to push precious metal prices lower to entice the remaining April contracts holders that aren't standing for delivery, to sell...rather than roll their contracts over into future months.
As I pointed on in my Tuesday missive, all the large traders that aren't standing for gold deliveries next month, have to roll or sell their remaining April contracts before the 1:30 p.m. EDT COMEX close today, so roll-over/switch volume will be pretty enormous once again.
In his most recent media appearance, Peter Schiff blasts the mainstream financial media and Fed policies, which he believes to be inflating the "biggest bubble yet". Schiff appeared on the Quoth the Raven Podcast on Sunday and spent an hour and a half explaining his case as to why the United States is heading to a currency crisis.
Schiff led off talking about why he doesn't get any mainstream financial media attention anymore, partly responding to recent comments by CNBC contributor Guy Adami that Schiff was "bad for TV".
"They abruptly cancelled my appearance a day before I was supposed to go on," he said of a scheduled interview with Rick Santelli on CNBC. "They haven't tried to book me since. Obviously Santelli's team didn't get the memo that Peter Schiff's not allowed on."
"I think they want to shield the audience from my perspective," he continued. "Maybe they think they're doing their audience a favor by keeping me off the air."
We all know Peter's position on everything financial and monetary, as it's about the same as most pundits, including mine. I'm only posting this story to show the active censorship of anyone who dares speak the truth while being interviewed by the mainstream media. This happened to GATA's Chris Powell in Hong Kong just now, when CNBC Asia cancelled their scheduled interview as well. This
article showed up on their Internet site at 3:26 p.m. on Monday afternoon EDT -- and another link to it is
I’m surprised that war has been avoided this long. Israel is surrounded entities in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip and Syria that what to destroy them. Iran is anxious to join the party. Forgetting the affect all of this would have on precious metals, nothing good can come from this.
And Europe is starting to take notice, and follow suit...
just two weeks before elections after overnight rocket attack from Gaza destroys home in central Israel.
Larry Kudlow may think that the economy is doing well and a recession is nowhere in sight, but I think he is wrong.
The Fed's favorite recession indicator - the 3 Month/10 Year spread - has plunged further into negative territory, and at last check had dropped as low as -7bps, as the next US recession is now barreling toward the US.
Now here is my kind of article from one of my favorite analysts. Here is a great article on the problems facing the dollar and why gold is so important as a hedge in your portfolio.
Egon von Greyerz
ONLY GOLD STANDS AGAINST THE FINAL CATASTROPHE
Have the Ides of March been delayed in 2019? Normally the Ides of March just means the date March 15th. Shakespeare made the expression ominous as it was the day that Julius Caesar was murdered. Today in 2019, the 29th of March seems more significant than the 15th. Because on the 29th, we first have the conclusion of Brexit. Or maybe we don’t!
Brexit has been a tortuous process that after 3 years has got nowhere. All it has done is to reveal the EU elite’s megalomania as well as their intransigence. It has also revealed the complete incompetence of the UK government as well as Mrs. May’s total indecisiveness and her inability to distinguish between activity and achievement.