Blog Post: Sacrificing Snail Darters to Save the Climate

Blog Post - Sacrificing Snail Darters to Save the Climate

Greetings,

I am in a good mood. I have been playing in the snow the past few days, and for me it was the first time all winter. I am easily pleased by Mother Nature. :)

But the calendar is what it is, and Spring is either here where you live or right around the corner.

In the electric utility industry, Spring has long been known as one of the two “Shoulder” seasons. That’s because the Winter and Summer periods have always had a high demand for electricity (e.g. a “peak”, due to heating and A/C respectively). A few utilities have been winter-peaking, but the majority have peaked in the summer.

But that is on the verge of changing. Electrification (think heat pumps and EVs) is starting to move things around. Data centers, Crypto and AI are also new players impacting the electricity system.

But not only is electricity demand shifting, it is growing overall at a rapid clip. The timing and size of the demand is changing, and when viewed in the context of climate change, that means that how we meet demand must change as well.

One of the problems with climate change is that how we use energy, and electricity, is not changing while the climate is. There should be a lot of change in energy to balance out what is happening on the climate side of the equation, but there is not. People, and those who govern them and provide them with products and services are not showing any real appetite for change. They are holding fast to the status quo, regardless of what is happening on the other side.

This situation cannot ultimately last. Something has to give. In my Op Ed below, I commit what some will see as blasphemy in terms of one of the things that we may need to give up.

Happy Spring!

Dan

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Links to Past Posts:

St. Patrick's Day and Climate Change

Charging My Car in Manhattan

Step Into These Shoes Wearing a Climate and Energy Hat

Resilience Recognition is Rising - But There is That Other Thing

There is no "O" in Climate Change

It was an Instagram COP - And I am Finally OK with That

How to Talk About Climate With Your Crazy Uncle at Thanksgiving

Monty Python and Climate Change

What You Need to Know About NIMBYism

H mm..So How Much Did My Heat Pump Really Cost?

What it Means to Be a Climate Voter

The Climate Conundrum of Air Conditioning

Predictions Made About Utilities Made 10 Years Ago - How Did They Hold up?

My Vote For The Most Under-Appreciated Impact of Climate Change

10 Things I Should Have Written About

So I Went to the COP - Here Are My Top 10 Takeaways.

Efficiency and Clean Energy - Faster vs More

Efficiency & Clean Energy - More vs. Faster

It's Time For A Climate Vote - On the Record

Good COP, Bad COP .....Thoughts Before Glasgow

One of These Things is Not Like the Others

What I Should Have Written About

The Serenity of Being a Climate Voter

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Some Things That Caught My Eye ...

My First Blurb Ever About What May be the Best Energy Source Ever

I must admit that I have never paid much attention to geothermal energy. It has always seemed to me to be something that worked where it worked, but not something that could have widespread impacts. And I say that even while being aware of ground source heat pumps in addition to utility scale projects.

The article below caught my eye because it involves repurposing oil and gas technology to go deeper than conventional geothermal, which is closer to the surface. This “next generation” geothermal is being supported by DOE and it seems that it could increase the potential footprint for the resource.

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4548519-energy-department-investment-geothermal-clean-on-demand-embraced-by-fossil-fuel-industry/?email=1aa9329b18e923b7a0466deaca55ec3295cd3ca5&emaila=1a9879292cf708655369e57c2f0d1aec&emailb=a2340ca54b306358664c00f342f0e025a2bb393eb72c9f9373d9fbaf3b58f913&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=E%26E%203/22

Your New Talking Point on Reforestation

I have talked before about the importance of an “urban forest” in offsetting the heat island effect that occurs in cities. But here is evidence that they can have a big impact via large scale reforestation. The article focuses on the Southeast U.S. and these numbers jumped out at me. Studies show that replenished forests today cool the Eastern U.S. by 1 C to 2 C (1.8F to 3.6F) each year. The cooling effect is strongest on the hottest days in summer, when the trees lower temperatures by 3 C to 5 C.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/17/us-east-trees-warming-hole-study-climate-crisis?CMP=share_btn_url

Fast Trips for Stopping Electricity-Caused Wildfires

You have seen the headlines and stories about utilities being found to be the cause of wildfires. Here is an interesting story about how technology exists for utilities to better manage their wires system to mitigate the potential for fire (while not simply shutting everyone off).

It also shows that not only does the grid need to be expanded to handle the dramatic rise in electricity demand and consumption, but it also needs to be made smarter. I say this approximately 20 years after some of us started talking about “smart grid”.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/22/business/energy-environment/electric-utilities-wildfires-climate-change.html?unlocked_article_code=1.fU0.U46W.U5cMcrmhaH8G&smid=url-share

The IRA Also has this Other Kind of Carrot

I have talked a lot about the IRA not having a lot of sticks and an abundance of carrots. And the carrots I have talked about have mainly been simple rebates and tax credits.

But as this article points out, and according to Treasury Department data, the IRA also has created a growing market for companies to buy and sell clean-energy tax credits, providing another possible source of money for start-ups to use to fund clean energy projects.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/19/business/biden-climate-tax-credits.html

Unregulated GeoEngineering for Climate Change – Are you Kidding me?

I have a great fear of GeoEngineering schemes such as shooting things into the atmosphere to block sunlight and decrease temperature. I cannot imagine how this will be a well-controlled thing if unleashed. But I certainly assumed that such efforts would be done by governments – and hopefully with a great degree of international cooperation.

And then I see this article, which talks about what the U.S. government system actually is for regulating this kind of thing. Did I mention I am fearful of this kind of thing?

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/power-switch/2024/03/25/why-this-risky-climate-fix-lacks-red-tape-00148866

Three Regional Electricity System Operators Show Some Numbers….and How Much Juice They Need Going Forward

An announcement by the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) that it needs to invest $23 Billion to create a “interstate highway system” for the midwestern grid system caught my eye for its price tag.

Then the release by the New England Independent System Operator (ISO-NE) of its Report called “Regional Electricity Outlook” that really got my attention.

Here are some nuggets from the Report that may make you want to dive into it:

- Batteries make up 46% of ISO New England’s interconnection queue, but the grid operator said that as peak demand increases these resources may have a challenge recharging in the winter months.

- Between now and 2040, ISO-NE expects its system to move from 6 GW of solar capacity to 28 GW, with most of that behind the meter.

- Gas will fall from about 45% of New England’s electricity production in 2022 to about 12% in 2040, and renewables will increase about 11% to 56% by that date.

- The expansion of electric heating and other new sources of demand means future grid use will peak in the winter instead of the summer starting at some point in the mid-2030’s.

Meanwhile, the largest of the Regional Operators, PJM, issued notice that 12 to 30 % of its installed generating capacity is at risk of not being economic enough to continue operating beyond 2030 – without any clear replacement resources identified.

https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2024/03/06/midwest-grid-operator-proposes-massive-transmission-build-out-00144981

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/electrification-extreme-weather-will-challenge-new-england-energy-resource-adequacy/710660/?utm_medium=email

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pjm-coal-gas-power-plant-risk-retirement-market-monitor/710518/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Newsletter%20Weekly%20Roundup:%20Utility%20Dive:%20Daily%20Dive%2003-23-2024&utm_term=Utility%20Dive%20Weekender

Should a Carbon Dioxide Pipeline Have the Power of Eminent Domain?

There is a significant difference between the gas and electricity industries that has benefited the former over the years as it has expanded. I refer to eminent domain, which gas pipelines have always had but which power lines don’t have. Think about that if you are trying to site a transmission line.

So what should the rule be for new “types” of pipelines – like Carbon Dioxide Pipelines? This article from a small South Dakota media outlet caught my eye as it describes how that is a hot local issue in that state.

https://southdakotasearchlight.com/2024/03/19/pipeline-survey-law-carbon-as-a-public-commodity-argued-at-state-supreme-court/?utm_medium=email

Renewable Electricity – Use it as is, Or Use it to Make Green Hydrogen?

I must admit that I came away from this article not sure exactly what to think about it. It is based on a report from the Brattle Group that finds that green (and some blue) hydrogen can compete with natural gas if we use 700 GW of renewable electricity to create it. I was left thinking about whether we should use “green” electricity to produce green hydrogen or should we use that electricity straight-up? (Note: I did not have time to read the Brattle Report so am basing my thoughts on the article)

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/blue-green-hydrogen-natural-gas-brattle-edf/710397/?utm_medium=email

Small Nukes to Serve Data Centers?

You have heard for a while that the future of nuclear is small, modular units. And you have heard about the voracious appetite of data centers. Why not pair a small nuclear unit with data centers? There are moves to do that.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/nuscale-small-modular-reactor-smr-data-center-nuclear/710442/?utm_medium=email

Speaking of Nuclear…

I think you all know the story of nuclear energy, i.e. that it was going to displace all those other dirty means of generating electricity and do so in a way that was going to be “too cheap to meter”. Well…that didn’t work out as planned to say the least. But that was then, and this is now – and now it is all about emissions.

Building new nuclear generating plants is one thing, and that is why it was pleasing to see over 30 nations come together recently for a Nuclear Energy Summit. Parties at the Summit noted that while some nation’s like France have a high percentage of nuclear generation, only 10% of global electricity is generating that way.

https://apnews.com/article/eu-nuclear-summit-energy-climate-war-016102058bc53f0d1590dd2faf5e569a?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Newsletter%20Weekly%20Roundup:%20Utility%20Dive:%20Daily%20Dive%2003-23-2024&utm_term=Utility%20Dive%20Weekender

Shutting down the nuclear plants we have is another thing. Case in point. The closure of the Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant in New York State, where closure meant replacement by natural gas power plants, has caused a rise in CO2 emissions as a result.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/20/nuclear-plant-closure-carbon-emissions-new-york?utm_term=65fc271e5a6f8f3bb52257caf4f77074&utm_campaign=DownToEarth&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=greenlight_email

Making Gas Utilities do a Plan

In addition to the advantage that Gas utilities have with eminent domain (see above), they are more lightly regulated in other ways as well. According to this article, which focuses on a recent move in Minnesota, only a handful of states require gas utilities to submit long-range Integrated Resource Plans (IRP) to their jurisdictional body (e.g Commission). While the new requirement in MN is aimed at starting to get control over gas industry emissions, it does not require gas companies to do “net-zero” planning.

https://energynews.us/2024/03/18/whats-the-future-of-gas-in-minnesota-utilities-have-to-share-10-year-visions/?utm_medium=email

One of the Key Talking Points You Need Regarding Warming

Most everyone is aware of what a warm winter we have just had, and all sorts of temperature records being broken are getting a lot of media coverage.

But as you know, the important thing is to be able to provide someone with some context in which to understand why the temps are so high.

Scientists have known since the 19^th Century that CO2 is a gas that cause heat retention, and that more CO2 causes more heat. According to the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has skyrocketed in recent decades.

If one starts with a preindustrial level of 280 parts per million (PPM) CO2, it took the world until the beginnings of the 60’s for the number to rise to around 300 ppm. By 1990, thirty years later, the level was roughly 350 ppm, which climate scientists have judged to the “safe” balance point for the earth and its climate and ecosystems. That means it took a couple of hundred years to move the needle 70 ppm.

Since 1990, the needle has risen to about 422 ppm. That means it only took 30 years to accumulate the same increase in CO2 that it previously took 200 years to accomplish.

And of course unlike that first 70 ppm rise, the last 70 ppm has happened while we have all been talking about the need to do something about emissions of CO2.

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Sacrificing Snail Darters to Save The Climate

For those of you who know what the Snail Darter is and its place in U.S, History, my title for this piece may come off as blasphemy by yours truly. But stick with me and read on to see how I am trying to use a new angle to chat about where I think things stand in terms of emissions reduction and climate mitigation.

The Snail Darter is (not was) a small, endangered fish whose habitat in the 1970’s in a particular part of Tennessee and that area where it lived was slated for a massive project of TVA called the Tellico Dam. The story is a complicated one that involved the timing of when the Endangered Species Act (ESA) was enacted were versus the timing of the onset of dam construction. It ultimately involved a Supreme Court Ruling Congress intervening to exempt the Snail Darter from the Endangered Species Act. The Dam was delayed but ultimately it got built.

Thankfully, an effort to transplant Snail Darters elsewhere was successful to the point that the fish has now been delisted under the Endangered Species Act, so it wasn’t actually “sacrificed” to the Dam. But it became a cause celebre because it was seen that if the project went through it was the end of that animal. And by end, I mean extinction.

But the focus for me is the trade-off. The snail darter was sacrificed for what was seen as the common and higher good, with the risk accepted as to what the consequences might be. I don’t know if that was a right or wrong decision back then, but it happened, and it helps focus on what we now must confront.

The snail darter has had plenty of company over the years, with none getting more visibility than the Spotted Owl, a reclusive bird whose only habitat was the forests of the Pacific Northwest, which were also the habitat for loggers. But today the roster is expanding, especially when it comes to habitats that overlap with wind projects.

In Texas wind country, it is a plant called the Bushy Willow-Wort. It is the right whale in the wind-rich areas of the Atlantic. It is the American Burying Beetle in the path of a Nebraska transmission line to carry wind power to where the demand is.

In my opinion, the climate situation is such that we must carefully modify our thinking. We can’t save everything. We must swallow hard and realize that.

One of my biggest Environmental Heroes is Alexander von Humboldt (1769-1859) one of the most famous scientists and thinkers of his day. He was so well-known and respected that when he died there were memorial parades across America. Or to get across his influence in another way – he was Charles Darwin’s mentor and influenced most of the latter’s work.

The title of one of the best books I have ever read, and one which a few years ago was a NYT Best Books of the Year, is “The Invention of Nature - Alexander von Humboldt’s New World”. That title reflects the fact that it was Humboldt that first understood that the natural world was not some haphazard combination of random placement of different species in different locations. He came up with the concept of ecosystem – the idea that everything was connected, and that nothing existed in isolation.

The ecosystem concept has proven to be a key underlying component of environmental policy for decades, and that has led to the hold-the-line thinking that we can’t afford to lose anything or else we take away a cog in a finely tuned ecosystem because if we do, the hole in the ecosystem could disrupt the whole thing.

Long before I read about Humboldt, I believed strongly in ecosystems as the infrastructure and operating system of the natural world. I wish things were such that we could afford to meet certain climate objectives without harm to any species. But things are not that way. It is 2024, emissions are not coming down, temperatures in the atmosphere and oceans are reaching record highs. We are in a situation where we will increasingly have to make some very hard decisions with respect to what we can save while still mitigating climate change. That not only goes for organisms but fields and other plots of land that are good spots for solar, wind, and other clean energy projects.

We know that we need as much renewable energy as possible to reduce emissions. But what is now hitting everyone (and landing on some of the most prominent front pages) is that we need more electricity period. Not only is electrification happening as part of climate efforts, but electrification is the basis of our society and economy regardless of climate change, i.e. we run and live on electricity. Put the two together and one finds that we need more generation not just to replace gas and coal, but to handle new electricity demand being created overall. And we need to do that via zero-emissions efforts so we don't further dig our climate hole.

The way things are going, we simply won’t be able to have or save everything anymore. If we were reducing emissions fast enough to stay under the temperature targets, I would think differently. But we are not reducing fast enough or in large enough amounts, and so we can’t save it all. We need clean energy projects, and we need them fast, and we will have to risk von Humboldt rolling over in his grave based on what we may have to do to nature. Or based on what we already have done to it, maybe he already is.

Best,

Dan

P.S. When I finished reading “The Invention of Nature – Alexander Humboldt’s New World” I put the book down saying to myself ‘how did I not know about this guy?”. I can’t recommend it highly enough.

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If you were forwarded this email, click the button below to sign up to receive these Blog Posts.

Join Our Email List

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Links to Past Posts:

St. Patrick's Day and Climate Change

Charging My Car in Manhattan

Step Into These Shoes Wearing a Climate and Energy Hat

Resilience Recognition is Rising - But There is That Other Thing

There is no "O" in Climate Change

It was an Instagram COP - And I am Finally OK with That

How to Talk About Climate With Your Crazy Uncle at Thanksgiving