2026 | March 16

The Markets

Stocks Down

The major U.S. stock indexes fell for the third consecutive week, with the S&P 500, the NASDAQ, and the Dow dropping around 1% to 2%. Geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices continued to weigh on stock and bond prices.

The three-week string of declines for the S&P 500 left the index nearly 5% below its record high reached on January 27 and almost 3% lower on a year-to-date basis. The NASDAQ was nearly 8% below its October 29, 2025, record and down almost 5% year to date.  

An index that tracks investors’ expectations of short-term U.S. stock market volatility eased slightly for the week but remained elevated. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finished the week at 27.2, down from 29.5 at the end of the previous week. As recently as January 23, the VIX was below 16.

Prices of U.S. government bonds fell for the second week in a row, sending yields sharply higher, as elevated oil prices fueled inflationary pressures. The 10-year Treasury yield finished the week at 4.28%, up from 4.15% the previous week. As recently as February 27, the yield slipped to 3.96%—the lowest in more than four months

Bond market trading ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next meeting continued to support expectations of a policy pause in the wake of recent rate cuts. Friday’s trading in rate futures markets implied a 99% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday, March 18, according to CME FedWatch. At its most recent meeting in January, the Fed held steady after approving rate cuts at its three previous meetings.

The U.S. economy expanded at a far slower pace in late 2025 than an initial estimate had indicated. Friday’s revision showed that GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter. The figure was down from the 1.4% estimate released in February and well below the 4.4% rate recorded in last year’s third quarter. 

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for measuring inflation remained well above the Fed’s long-term inflation target of 2%. Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index reading on core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—came in at 3.1% in January, slightly above December’s 3.0% reading. On a month-to-month basis, inflation rose 0.4%. 

Conflict in the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fueled oil market volatility for a second week, with U.S. crude futures spiking to $119 per barrel on Monday and then briefly slipping below $77 the next day. On Friday afternoon, oil was trading around $98, up from a recent low of around $65 on February 27.

Source: John Hancock Investment Management

AJA March Madness is Back!

The AJA bracket challenge is now open for March Madness! Anyone is welcome to enter (at no cost) for a chance to win! Prizes will be given to 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd place winners. Feel free to invite friends and family to submit a bracket!

Click here to join the bracket. 

Brackets must be submitted before the first game on Thursday, March 19^th.

Best of luck!

Volatility is Uncomfortable but Expected

If you’ve ever walked down a city street on a gusty day, you may have been beset by a whirlwind of dirt and debris that stops you in your tracks. The haze and flying grit make it hard to see where you’re going. But if you’re patient and wait it out, the wind dies down, and you can continue on your way.

Recently, investors have been engulfed in a whirlwind of market volatility. News about wars, the economy, artificial intelligence (AI), and tariffs have created tremendous uncertainty – and lots of volatility. While short-term ups and downs are quite uncomfortable, they’re not unexpected when investing. See what you know about market volatility and investing by taking this brief quiz.

1. When stock prices are gyrating and you’re feeling anxious, which of the following could prove to be most valuable to you as an investor?

a. A financial news app

b. A popular pundit’s prediction about where markets will go next

c.  A financial plan that aligns with your short- and long-term financial goals

d. A friend who has lots of stories about investment successes

2. People are not always perfectly rational. Adam Hayes of Investopedia reports that, sometimes, investors give more weight to recent events than they should. As a result, they make short-term decisions – like selling stocks at a low during a period of market volatility – that can negatively affect their long-term financial plans. What is this type of decision-making behavior called?

a. Hindsight bias

b. Recency bias

c. Overconfidence

d. Herd behavior

3.  If an investor’s long-term goals have not changed, what should they do during periods of market volatility?

a. Sell everything and wait for markets to calm down

b. Check stock prices every three to four hours

c. Talk with a financial professional and reach a thoughtful decision about whether to take any action

d. Try to time the market by buying and selling at just the right moments

4. A portfolio is well diversified when it includes a wide variety of investments (such as stocks, bonds, cash, and other types of assets) that respond differently to market conditions, reported Troy Segal of Investopedia. In addition, portfolios may be diversified by geographic region, industry, and other factors. Why is it important to have a well-diversified portfolio?

a. Diversification can help manage portfolio risk

b. Diversification guarantees higher returns

c. Diversification eliminates all losses

d. Diversification ensures investors outperform the market

During periods of market volatility, it’s important to remember that we’ve seen the Standard & Poor’s 500 and other stock indexes decline before. Historically, they’ve recovered and moved higher. During periods of volatility and market downturns, a prudent approach is to remain patient, stay disciplined, and focus on your long-term goals.

Answers:

1. C. During periods of volatility, having a financial plan can help investors stay focused on long-term goals and avoid emotional decision-making, according to research conducted by Margaretha Dasinapa of Airlangga University. 

2. B. Recency bias causes people to place too much emphasis on recent events. As a result, they overestimate the likelihood that those events will continue or occur again.

3. C. Philip Straehl of Morningstar pointed out that many investors like to meet with their financial professionals during periods of market volatility to discuss whether any action is necessary.

4. A. Diversification can help manage portfolio risk. It does not guarantee higher returns, eliminate losses, or ensure investors outperform the market. 

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eMoney

Charles Schwab

Advyzon

Emily Triano

Operations Manager

emily@ajadvice.com

Maya Laws

Operations Associate

maya@ajadvice.com

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