House Clears Series of Foreign Aid Measures; Senate to Act on Tuesday

House Clears Series of Foreign Aid Measures; Senate to Act on Tuesday
Some House GOP farm bill details could surface this week

Washington Focus

The House has left for a weeklong recess. They will return on April 29. The Senate will convene Tuesday, April 23, to clear foreign aid legislation.

— House Democrats joined Republicans on Saturday to pass a $95.3 billion foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific region. The measures now go to the Senate for a Tuesday vote. A fourth bill that cleared the House would seize frozen Russian sovereign assets and force a sale of the Chinese-controlled social media app TikTok, among other priorities.

Ukraine bill: The House passed a $61 billion aid package for the war in Ukraine. The measure passed 311-112-1, with 112 Republicans voting no, and 101 GOP lawmakers supporting. House Democrats carried this bill — 210 House Democrats voted yes, and not a single member of the minority voted no. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on X that he was “grateful” to the House, “both parties, and personally Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) for the decision that keeps history on the right track.” Johnson said: “Unlike the Senate’s blank check, the House legislation has a number of very important features. It provides for greater accountability over Ukraine aid. We gave our members a voice. We gave them a chance. We gave them a better process and ultimately a much better policy.” (The bill requires the Biden administration to produce a document detailing its strategy in Ukraine within 45 days.)

The Ukraine bill includes $23.2 billion to replenish arms that the U.S. has already sent, like 155mm howitzer rounds; $13.8 billion to procure advanced weapons; and other money to better monitor the aid. The bill also requires the White House to give Ukraine as many as 1,000 ATACMS missiles, long-range weapons that the Biden administration first provided last fall after withholding them for months as too provocative. Another $11 billion is marked for U.S. troops in Europe for ship and aircraft maintenance and more.
Israel bill: The House passed a bill to send $26 billion to Israel. The bill also provides $9 billion in humanitarian relief, some of which will be used for the Palestinians. The vote was 366-58, with 37 Democrats and 21 Republicans voting against the package. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the aid was “much appreciated,” writing on X that it “demonstrates strong bipartisan support for Israel and defends Western civilization.”

The Israel aid package includes $4 billion to replenish Iron Dome and David’s Sling interceptor missiles, which helped ward off last weekend’s Iranian drone-and-missile attack. The bill includes $9.5 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza, as well as other “vulnerable populations.” It also prohibits funds to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency. It does include $1 billion for other artillery and munitions and $2.4 for current U.S. military operations, which have included aid drops to Gaza.
Indo-Pacific measure: The House also overwhelmingly approved sending $8 billion to allies in the Indo-Pacific as they face threats from China, 385 to 34. All who voted against the measure were far-right Republicans.

The Indo-Pacific Security Supplemental Appropriations Act includes $2 billion for Foreign Military Financing Program for Taiwan and other regional partners, $1.9 billion to build Taiwan military capabilities, and $3.3 billion to build drydocks and boost other regional infrastructure for U.S. submarines, among other items.

— The House passed legislation aimed at banning TikTok in the U.S. unless its Chinese owner sells its stake within a year. The decision to include TikTok in a foreign aid package fast-tracked the ban, reflecting national security concerns. The modified bill now goes to the Senate, but even if it becomes law, legal challenges from TikTok are expected, potentially delaying or blocking the ban's implementation.

Details: The legislation, approved by the House in a 360-58 vote, would force China-based TikTok owner, ByteDance, to sell the app to a buyer that is not controlled by a foreign adversary, such as Russia, China or Iran, within 270 days (with an option for President Joe Biden to extend the timeline by 90 days if he sees progress toward a sale) or face a ban.

It’s unlikely TikTok, or the Chinese government, will agree to the terms — the company has criticized the proposal as a free speech violation and a blow to the economy and has spent $5 million on ads against the legislation since mid-March, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact, while the Chinese government has also expressed resistance to a forced sale and would need to approve the transaction.

The company has indicated it could challenge the legislation in court, with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew telling users in a video last month the company will “continue to do all we can, including exercising our legal rights, to protect this amazing platform that we have built with you.”

— Fourteen Republicans voted against all four bills on the House floor, including the one that would force a sale of TikTok from Chinese ownership. Here is the list in alphabetical order: Andy Biggs (Ariz.), Lauren Boebert (Colo.), Andrew Clyde (Ga.), Elijah Crane (Ariz.), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Bob Good (Va.), Paul Gosar (Ariz.), Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.), Andy Harris (Md.), Thomas Massie (Ky.), Troy Nehls (Texas), Ralph Norman (S.C.), Matt Rosendale (Mont.), Chip Roy (Texas).

Another 17 GOP Members voted for arms for Israel but not for Taiwan and Ukraine.

— No further action on threatened motion to vacate speaker… for now. Rebel GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) — who had pledged to eject Johnson from the speakership if he advanced Ukraine aid — did not take action. She told reporters she hopes colleagues face backlash from constituents while they’re on recess this week and consider joining the effort to oust the speaker on their return to Washington. Most observers think that will not occur. When asked Saturday whether he believed he would still be speaker by November, Johnson simply said, “Yes.”

— Mexico’s presidential frontrunner wants to focus on U.S. trade ties. Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner in Mexico's June presidential election, emphasized the importance of U.S. trade ties and hinted at encouraging companies to relocate operations to Mexico from China. This stance contrasts with the confrontational approach of her mentor, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. She highlighted the significance of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and the potential benefits of nearshoring for the Mexican economy. Despite the enthusiasm for nearshoring, Mexico's economic growth has been stagnant under López Obrador's administration, leading to criticism from opposition politicians and economists. The next president will face significant economic challenges, including revitalizing state-owned oil company Pemex, attracting foreign investment in the energy sector, and combating organized crime.

— The IRS collected nearly $5 trillion in taxes from Americans during the last fiscal year, alongside increasing the amount it paid out in refunds by almost 3%. Despite criticisms and concerns about funding boosts potentially leading to increased tax enforcement, the IRS emphasized its commitment not to raise audit rates for individuals earning less than $400,000 per year.

The significant tax intake was facilitated in part by a substantial funding increase, including $78 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. This funding was utilized to employ more enforcers and implement advanced technologies like artificial intelligence to improve compliance and detect noncompliance more effectively. Although there were initial concerns from some Republicans that this funding would lead to aggressive enforcement tactics against ordinary taxpayers, the IRS asserted that its focus was primarily on high-wealth non-filers and those engaging in complex tax schemes.

The agency expanded its workforce by approximately 5%, hiring around 5,800 new employees, many of whom were assigned to compliance-related tasks. Despite the increased enforcement efforts, the IRS maintained that it adhered to its pledge of not increasing audits for taxpayers earning less than $400,000 annually.

Additionally, the IRS announced an increase in tax refunds by 2.7% ompared to the previous fiscal year, totaling $659 million. This was attributed partly to the effects of the Inflation Reduction Act funding, which allowed for the hiring of more IRS employees and the modernization of the agency's technology and systems.

Looking ahead, a report from the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA) revealed that the IRS plans to hire thousands more tax enforcers in 2024. However, it clarified that claims of an "army of 87,000" tax enforcers were unfounded, as the only armed enforcement personnel are special agents in the Criminal Investigation Division, who represent a minority of IRS enforcement staff.

— The Biden administration is gearing up to issue a significant executive order on immigration, intending to utilize Section 212 of the Immigration and Nationality Act. This move aims to establish new obstacles for asylum seekers who enter the country unlawfully. This strategy echoes a tactic employed by former President Donald Trump in 2018, where he issued a similar proclamation to restrict asylum claims. However, implementing this proclamation effectively may encounter legal challenges, as evidenced by Trump's experience when his attempt to block illegal border crossers from seeking asylum was ultimately rejected by the Supreme Court. This move by the Biden administration is another attempt to address a key vulnerability for the president, given that public opinion on his immigration policies and the situation at the southern border tends to be negative.

— NBC poll: RFK Jr.’s candidacy may hurt Trump more than Biden in 2024. The latest poll suggests that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s independent candidacy for the presidency might affect former President Donald Trump more than President Joe Biden in the 2024 election. In a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, Trump narrowly leads Biden 46% to 44%. However, when Kennedy is included, Biden edges out Trump 39% to 37%, with Kennedy polling at 13%. Other candidates like Jill Stein and Cornel West also receive minor percentages.

While some previous polls have shown different results, this poll reflects a tightening race between Trump and Biden. Trump's lead over Biden nationally has decreased to just 0.4 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics. However, when Kennedy, Stein, and West are factored into the equation, Trump's lead increases to 1.3 percentage points.

For Kennedy to qualify for the debate stage, he needs to reach 15% in select polling. The poll reveals that 15% of those who switched their support to Kennedy had initially favored Trump, while only 7% had favored Biden.

Kennedy garners more positive views from Republicans (40%) compared to Democrats (16%), with Democrats expressing more negative views (53%).

Both the Trump and Biden campaigns are concerned about Kennedy potentially acting as a spoiler in the election. Notably, some members of the Kennedy family have endorsed Biden's reelection bid, cautioning against voting for their relative.

The NBC poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from April 12 to 16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Of note: Kennedy Jr. will appear on the ballot in at least two states, Utah and Michigan — a swing state where a victory for Biden will be crucial to his chances of winning re-election. Independent candidates not affiliated with a major political party are required to petition for ballot access. His campaign and its backers have also said they’ve collected enough signatures for him to appear on the ballot in Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia, though the states have yet to verify the petitions.

Hearings and Other Events of Note

Monday, April 22

President Joe Biden travels to Virginia for an event to celebrate Earth Day.
Earth Day. Several groups plan events around Earth Day. Extinction Rebellion DC (XRDC) holds its "Earth Day Action 2024" rally to urge leaders in DC to "join us in building a future that is healthy and livable for everyone." The Permanent Council of the Organization of American States' (OAS) Permanent Council and the OAS Inter-American Council for Integral Development (CIDI) hold a meeting in recognition of Earth Day, with the theme "A Call to Action - Meeting Critical Environmental Challenges in the Americas." The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) holds a discussion on "30 Years of Environmental Progress: Is It Time at Last to Be Optimistic?"
Business conditions. National Association for Business Economics (virtual discussion "The NABE April 2024 Business Conditions Survey Results."
Non-compete agreements. U.S. Chamber of Commerce press call on "the legal and economic implications of the Federal Trade Commission's (FTC) expected vote Tuesday to finalize its proposed rule to ban all employer noncompete agreements, and the Chamber's consideration of potential litigation in response to the rule."
Utah public lands. House Natural Resources Federal Lands Subcommittee field hearing on "Empowering Local Voices and Stopping Federal Overreach to Improve the Management of Utah's Public Lands."
NATO summit. United States Institute of Peace virtual discussion on "The Road to Washington's NATO Summit," focusing on "increased engagement between NATO and partner countries in the Indo-Pacific - Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.
Climate and weather disasters. American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research discussion on "Is Climate Change to Blame for Natural Disasters? The Science and Politics of Extreme Weather."

Tuesday, April 23

U.S. energy production. House Oversight and Accountability Economic Growth, Energy Policy, and Regulatory Affairs Subcommittee field hearing on "Drilling Down: Oversight of the Challenges and Opportunities Facing U.S. Energy Production."
Energy issues. Department of Energy meeting of the National Petroleum Council (NPC) for DOE remarks and presentations, discussion, and approval of the final reports of the NPC Hydrogen Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Committees
U.S./ASEAN relations. Council on Foreign Relations virtual discussion on "The U.S./ASEAN Relationship."
Energy security. Center for Strategic and International Studies conference on "Energy Security and Geopolitics."

Wednesday, April 24

2024 elections. Washington Post Live virtual discussion on "issues driving the electorate in 2024, the politics of abortion in battleground states" and former president Trump's vision for a second term.
U.S./China shipbuilding Section 301 investigation. Washington International Trade Association and the Asia Society Policy Institute virtual discussion on "Shipbuilding: The Next U.S./China Trade Battle?"
Elections and U.S. industry. Brookings Institution discussion on "Issues at stake in the 2024 election: Revitalizing American industry."
AI and carbon neutrality. Information Technology and Innovation Foundation's Center for Data Innovation virtual discussion on "Harnessing Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Carbon Neutrality."
Climate lawsuits at the U.S. Supreme Court. Federalist Society for Law and Public Policy Studies In-House Counsel Network virtual discussion on "Climate Lawsuits and Status at the U.S. Supreme Court."
Elections and AI. Bipartisan Policy Center discussion on "Elections in the Age of Artificial Intelligence (AI)."

Thursday, April 25

Batteries and energy transition. International Energy Agency virtual media briefing on the launch of its "Special Report on Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions."
Drought and climate resilience. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meeting of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Executive Council for NIDIS implementation updates and 2024 priorities, executive council member updates and 2024 priorities relevant to drought, climate adaptation and resilience, water, fire, regional drought early warning systems and partnership opportunities, as well as research and development and managing for both too much and too little water across water resource management disciplines.
Lithium battery safety. Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration meeting of the Lithium Battery Air Safety Advisory Committee.

Friday, April 26

Belt and Road Initiative at 10. Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion on "The Belt and Road Initiative at 10: Challenges and Opportunities."
Digital access issues. Washington Post Live virtual discussion with policy and industry leaders on "Disparities in Digital Access."
Solar energy. American Council on Renewable Energy virtual discussion on "Investing in Community Solar."

Economic Reports and Events

Focus will be on the latest U.S. personal income and outlays report, due Friday. The data will also contain readings on the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index (it tends to show weaker inflation than the CPI). Also, Thursday will see the publication of the first estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q1.

Federal Reserve policymakers will not be commenting on monetary policy this week since it falls within the communications blackout period that surrounds the April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting.

Monday, April 22

Chicago Fed National Activity Index
China: The People's Bank of China is expected to leave its one-year and five-year loan prime rates on hold at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively.

Tuesday, April 23

Wednesday, April 24

MBA Mortgage Applications
Durable Goods Orders
Bank of Canada summary of deliberations

Thursday, April 25

Jobless Claims
International Trade in Goods
Wholesale Inventories
GDP: The three Fed district bank GDP Nowcasts point to growth above the 2% mark. The first quarter of the year often is the weakest, but some say this may not be the case in 2024.
Pending Home Sales Index
KC Fed Manufacturing
Fed Balance Sheet
Money Supply
Bank of Japan interest rate decision. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said in Washington on Friday that the central bank will "very likely" be raising interest rates if underlying inflation continued to go up.

Friday, April 26

Key USDA & international Ag & Energy Reports and Events

USDA on Thursday issues its latest food price outlook while London will host a commodity trading event during the week.

In the energy sector, major energy companies including Chevron, Exxon Mobil and TotalEnergies will report first quarter results during the week. The World Energy Congress will start in Rotterdam on Monday.

Monday, April 22

Ag reports and events:

Export Inspections
Raw-Fiber Equivalents of U.S. Textile Trade Data
U.S. Bioenergy Statistics
Chickens & Eggs
Milk Production
Crop Progress
JRC MARS Bulletin on crop conditions in Europe