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Good Thursday morning!
"Volatility Ahead" is the understatement of the day, however, we have been warning you the past few days about last night's tariff announcements and what impacts they could have moving forward. Obviously, the market answered and didn't like the sweeping tariffs and futures imploded last night, and even more so this morning. I have been doing this a long time and I have never seen the ES drop 300 points and the NQ futures drop 1,000 points in such a short period of time. Today could be tricky, but once again I feel pretty good because I know exactly what I will be looking for to either get long or short during the trading session.
As far as today, I will repeat myself now for a third straight day (which I have never done before) that some people may want to sit this one out again as things are out of control and completely unhinged. Now for those who want to trade this market again, below are some very key levels and targets that can be traded and will be helpful during today's session.
In the profile pic and key levels below, we are trading well below yesterday's low of 5610.75 and under the 3/31 swing low of 5533.75. This will be the first very KEY LEVEL to watch for today. If price can get above 5533.75, then I will be looking for 5565 which is overnight 1/2 back then 5595 - 5625. As you can see, the target ranges are very wide and for good reason. With the VIX back above 26, there will be much larger intraday ranges for the foreseeable future, so widen out your stops but also widen out your targets!
Now, IF sellers keep price below 5533.75, then we could drop towards lower targets as listed. Yesterday we were looking for a fade higher and that worked out very well. Today with this huge oversold market I will be looking for the same, but it could be a bit trickier with all the increased volatility. Futures are trading at 5525 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's added or taken out yesterday. We still have 6 above and 21 below and 5420 could be in play.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5595 - 5625
Key Levels: 5533.75 3/31 Swing Low then 5565 ON 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5485 - 5475 then 5420 - 5410
/NQ upside target is: 19,400 - 19,450
Key Level: 18,977 3/31 Swing Low then 19,225 VPOC
downside target is : 18,750 - 18,700
/RTY upside target is: 1990 - 2000
downside target is: 1940 - 1930
Economic Data: Red /Green Star Event Today
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
PMI Composite Final @ 9:45 AM ET
ISM Services Index @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Philip Jefferson Speaks
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5670 then at $5610-5600 with Supply at $5740
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5670 looking to play a break and retest above $5680 long targeting $5710 then $5740
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5610 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5600 targeting $5580 then a break down into $5570s
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SPY Key demand at then at $559- 558 with Supply above at $567-566
Bullish Sellers trapped above $558 looking to play a break and retest from $559 long targeting $561 then a breakout mid high $563s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $558 after a break and retest below $555 targeting $557s then a breakdown into $555s then at $554’s
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/NQ Key demand at $19650-19700 then at $19300 with Supply above at $19890-19900
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19650 looking to play a break and retest above $19700 long targeting $19800s then a breakout back into low $19900s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19500 looking to play short from $19470 targeting a breakdown $19200s then $19100s
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QQQ Key Demand at $470 with Supply at $479-478
Bullish Sellers trapped above $470 looking to play a break and retest from $471 targeting $473 then a breakout into low mid $474s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $470 looking to play a break and retest short from $469 targeting $467s then $466s
Have a great day and PLEASE stay safe!!
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