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Good Thursday morning!
Another new all time high yesterday in the S&P as buyers continued to put money to work, however, this morning after the CPI report, futures are selling off and the pop from Wednesday is now in jeopardy! There could be people now trapped up at the highs and as you can see in the profile pic below, price has now gone below the key levels of the Value Area Low and is testing 1/2 back and the top of the spike from yesterday. This will be very important in today's trade @ 5818 in the ES futures!!
As I mentioned yesterday, "the S&P cash has been holding up very well between 5770 - 5675 and actually broke above that range to new all time highs", however, we are now going to open up very close to the top @ 5770 so if the buyers can keep price above, then the edge remains to the bulls. IF we lose that high and start to go below 5770, then what usually happens is that we go back to the other side of balance which in this case is 5675! I am not saying we go there today but if we close bearish and below 5770 in the S&P cash today, then we should look for continuation lower. IF the buyers keep price elevated and we close above, or well above 5770, then the knee jerk reaction this morning was just that....nothing but a knee jerk reaction! At the time of this writing the futures are trading @ 5821 so please make sure you are aware of both S&P cash price and ES futures price.
VPOC Update: We added a new VPOC below yesterday @ 5788.50 so we now are back to 24 untested Points of Control below with still none above.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5860 - 5865
Key Levels: 5818 1/2 back overnight low and top of spike
downside target is: 5805 - 5800
/NQ upside target is: 20,610 - 20,640
Key Level: 20,361 1/2 back
downside target is : 20,380 - 20.350
/RTY upside target is: 2225 - 2230
downside target is: 2199 - 2195
Economic Data: RED STAR EVENT TODAY!
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
CPI @ 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Lisa Cook Speaks @ 9:15 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Thomas Barkin Speaks @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
John Williams Speaks @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Treasury Statement @ 2:00 PM ET
Treasury Buyback Results @ 2:00 PM E
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand $57800-10 with Supply above at $5846 HOD
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5800 after a pullback below $5795 looking to play SHORT targeting $5770 then $5752
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5800 after a break and retest above $5805-10 playing LONG targeting $5820 then new HOD
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SPY - Demand at $573-574 w / Supply at $577-576
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $573 after a break and retest above $574 looking to play LONG targeting $576 then high $577s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $573 after a retest from $572 where Demand would flip back to Supply targeting $571 then $569
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/NQ - Key Demand at $20190-20230 with Supply above at $20530-500
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $20190 looking to play long targeting $20270 then $20400
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $20180 and holding , looking to play short from $19750 targeting $2100 then $20020
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QQQ - Key Demand at $486-485 with Supply above at $494 HOD - $495
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $485 looking to play long from a break and retest at $486 targeting $487 then $488.
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $485 after a break and retest below $484 looking to play short targeting $482 then high $480s
Also watching …
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AAPL - Key Demand at $226 with Supply at $229
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $226 after a break and retest from $227 targeting $229
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $225 after a break and retest from $224 targeting $223 then $222
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NVDA Supply flipped to Demand at $129 with Supply at $134
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $129 playing a break and retest from $130 looking to target $131 then $132
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $128 after a break and retest from $127 looking to play short targeting $125 then $124
Have a great day!
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