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Good morning everyone.
1 down 3 to go. As we get close to wrapping up 2023, a lot of bigger traders are still on holiday and volumes tend to really thin out the last few trading days so please keep that in mind as intra-day swings can be violent. Short squeezes and liquidation breaks can seemingly come out of nowhere!!
That being said, I feel like a broken record commenting on the same thing day after day but nothing has structurally changed in the markets. Bulls remain in control and sellers get run over on every pullback. As I mentioned yesterday,
"As long as 4760-4740 holds in the /ES, the bulls remain in control. (In the SPX, the key levels are 4715-4695) Meaning as long as price and more importantly value stays above said levels, the bears don't have a prayer.
Please pay close attention to the yellow shaded areas in the profile pic below....as long as the buyers continue to have no fear and put capital to work, and we stay above the upper end of the target band (4760), the current trend remains theirs."
Value has stayed elevated and we are right back to one time framing higher for the last four trading days. (N.B. - one time framing means the lows of each day are higher then the last) A key level today in the /ES will be @ 4820-21. The overnight low and yesterdays half back are right at this level so as long as buyers keep price above, then bias stays long going towards upper target. IF we take out 4820-21, then target 4813-4808 area and if those lows get taken out, there could be some stronger sellers emerging. But of course in this market that is a big "IF"!
We put in a new VPOC below and took out 4823 above us yesterday. We still we still have 12 below us and
/ES upside target is 4840-45
downside target is 4805-10
/NQ upside target is 17,155-175
downside target is 17,000-020
/RTY upside target is 2100-05
downside target is 2060-65
Futures are flat this morning at time of writing with overnight inventory 95% net long. We are inside of yesterdays range. 4820-21 will be a key line in the sand as mentioned above.
Economic Data:
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index @ 10:00
These are usually NOT market moving numbers
More Color.......
/ES - Consolidating inside Demand at $4820 $4835 where it made HOD yesterday.
Ideally, I want to see the price pushed back down to the trend line and key Demand
zone between $4805-$4812. If price holds I will play long targeting Supply. If price falls
below $4800 and holds I would like to play short targeting $4785 first then $4774
- Huge sell off at the open trapping sellers inside key demand
- HOD breakout flipping Supply to Demand
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- Demand flips to supply below $4760 , demand after that is $4750-$4740
SPY - Consolidating inside Supply at $477-$476. Would like to see buyers trapped at
the open playing a break and retest from $476 playing SHORT targeting $474.60
- If sellers push price back down to $472 at the open at price holds above $471 I
would like to play long targeting $473.50 first then Supply above at $475
- Price below $470 can leave room for more selling targeting $467
SPX - Selling off from Key Supply at $4780 $4790 , ideally would like to see price
pushed back down to demand at $4755 -$4765 holding above playing long to $4775
/NQ - Consolidating inside Supply , selling off at $17115 - $1700. If price can hold
above $17030-$17050 I would like to play long targeting Supply. Or if buyers become
trapped at the open i would like to play a break and retest short from Supply
- Under $16955 : room for larger sell off ( Demand below that is $16900-$16860)
- Watching to see if Supply flips to Demand or Demand flips to Supply intraday
QQQ - Selling off from Supply $411-$412 , would ideally like to see a break and retest
at $409 with price holding above $408 to play long targeting under Supply at $410.40
- If price falls below $408 and holds under $409 I am looking to see if Demand
becomes Supply playing a break and retest at $408 short targeting $406.80
TSLA - Consolidating under Supply at $257.50 , nearest demand is $251-$253
- Price pushed back down to hourly trend line holding to play long
- Break and retest from Supply targeting previous Demand
AAPL Selling off into key demand at $191-$192 , if price pushes back up into $194 and
holds below i would like to play short targeting Demand. Sell off at the open with price
holding above $190 playing a break and retest at $191 long targeting $193
MSFT - Consolidating under Supply at $376-$374
GOOGL- Consolidating inside Supply at $141- $143 making a new HOD
Have a wonderful day!
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