- The high inflation environment we see today is different than the one we saw in 1979. Back then inflation had already been high for 15 years (vs. less than one year today) and the unemployment rate was 6% (vs. 3.6% today).
- The average bear market lasts about 15 months with a loss of between 25% to 35%. Yet, every bear market has been followed by a bull market which historically lasts an average of 3.8 years and sees the market rise 167%.
- For the first time in years, income-oriented investors have options beyond stocks. As of this December, only 13% of S&P 500 companies have higher income yields than 10-year Treasuries.
- Interest rate hikes aimed at taming inflation seem to have also discouraged private companies from going public. Just $207 billion has been raised this year from IPOs — down 68% since last year.
MarketWatch- "Opinion: History Shows Powell Won't Have to Hammer the Economy the Way Volcker Did"
Bloomberg- "Stock Swings Will Last Into 2023, Edward Jones' Mahajan Says"
Barrons- "Stocks Could Return About 10% in 2023- But First, They're Going to Fall"
Bloomberg- "After This Year's IPO Slump, Banker are Wary of 2023 Relief"
Economic Calendar
Monday:
NAHB home builders' index (Dec)
Tuesday:
Building permits (SAAR) (Nov), Housing starts (SAAR) (Nov)
Wednesday:
Current account deficit (Q3), Consumer confidence index (Dec), Existing home sales (SAAR) (Nov)
Thursday:
Initial jobless claims (Dec), Continuing jobless claims (Dec), Real gross domestic product revision (SAAR) (Q3), Real gross domestic income revision (SAAR) (Q3), Real final sales to domestic purchasers (SAAR) (Q3), Chicago Fed national activity index (Nov),Index of leading economic indicators (Nov)
Friday:
PCE price index (Nov), Core PCE price index (Nov), PCE price index (year-on-year) (Nov),Core PCE price index (year-on-year) (Nov),Real disposable income (SAAR) (Nov), Real consumer spending (SAAR) (Nov), Durable goods orders (Nov),Core capital equipment orders (Nov), UMich consumer sentiment index (late) (Dec), UMich 5-year inflation expectations (late) (Dec), New home sales (SAAR) (Nov)
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