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Good Wednesday morning,
FED Day! It's a coin toss my friends as market participants have priced in no change in interest rates when the FED comes out with their decision this afternoon @ 2:00 p.m. EST, but the markets can still remain very volatile trying to figure out their next move! On top of that, we have continued sabre-rattling in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, and whether or not the U.S. will join the battle remains uncertain. All of these things have the market on edge, and you can see that in the volatile, intraday market swings! You can also see it in the market profile pic below!
In the profile pic and key levels, you can see how "value" has been bouncing around like a ping pong ball, down then up, then down, then up, so who knows what will happen today. That being said, once again we have the key levels to watch and lean on starting with the POC at 6038.25.
If the buyers can keep the price above 6038.25, then look for half-back at 6056, then VAH (Value Area High) at 6069.75, then upper targets at 6075-6085. If sellers take price below 6038.25, then look for a re-test of the prior low at 6032, then the overnight low at 6018, then our lower targets at 6010-6000. Try to keep it simple today, but that does not mean it will be easy. Expect more volatile, intraday swings so stay fluid!
N.B.: Just a reminder—we are now trading the U25 contract (September) instead of the M25 contract (June).
Futures are currently trading at 6046 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: A new VPOC was added yesterday above at 6091, so we now have 4 above and 21 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6075 - 6085
Key Levels: 6038.25 POC then 6056 1/2 back
downside target is: 6010 - 6000
/NQ upside target is: 22,170 - 22,200
Key Level: 22,022 1/2 Back then 22,100 POC
downside target is : 21,800 - 21,750
/RTY upside target is: 2135 - 2145
downside target is: 2105 - 2095
Economic Data : BUSY DAY Today Red / Green Star Events
MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts and Permits @ 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 12:00 PM ET
FOMC Announcement @ 2:00 PM ET
Fed Chair Press Conference @ 2:30 PM ET
Treasury International Capital @ 4:00 PM ET
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index @ 8:30 AM ET
Leading Indicators @ 10:00 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
More Color By : Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5900-5905 with Supply above at $6075
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5975 looking to play a break and retest above $5980 long targeting $6021 then $6075
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5900 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5890 targeting $5825 then a break down into $5700s
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SPY Key demand at then at $595 then $590-591 with Supply above at $600-602
Bullish Sellers trapped above $602 looking to play a break and retest from $603 long targeting $605 then a breakout mid high $607
Bearish Buyers trapped below $595 after a break and retest below $594 targeting $591 then a breakdown into $589
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/NQ Key demand at $21700 then at $21300-400 with Supply above at $22000 then at $22106
Bullish Sellers trapped above $22000 looking to play a break and retest above $22050 long targeting $2300 then a breakout back into low $22400
Bearish Buyers trapped below $21435 looking to play short from below $21390 targeting $21200 then $21100s
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QQQ Key Demand at $521-522 then at $524 with Supply at $533-534
Bullish Sellers trapped above $524 looking to play a break and retest from $525 targeting $526 then a breakout into low mid $528’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $521 looking to play a break and retest short from $520 targeting $519 then $516
Have a great trading day and be careful!
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