Will Higher CPI Impact Housing?

The median sale price in Deschutes County for the last seven days is $752,500 marking five consecutive weeks of increase. The days on the market for these sold properties have remained steady at twenty-three. Days on the market for active listings increased by two, now at sixty-one, the most days for actively listed homes in the last couple of years. Active listings also increased slightly to nine-hundred-thirteen, an increase of twenty from the previous week. I pull these numbers early on Wednesday mornings but depending on which day of the week or time, the active listings will change, and I wouldn't read too much into this increase. Nationwide, actively listed homes decreased again last week, with 547,122 homes for sale, a decrease of 1 percent. As a point of reference, in 2019, the last time the housing market behaved "normally," there were over 950,000 homes actively listed for sale. Last week in Deschutes County, five-hundred-eight of the actively listed homes reduced the list price by a median of -5.69 percent. Sixty-eight homes sold last week, an increase of three from the previous week, with thirty reducing the price by a median of -6.17 percent.


The consumer price index came in higher than predicted yesterday at 8.3 percent, remaining at forty-year highs. The higher-than-expected CPI print marks twenty-seven consecutive months of rising inflation and portends another rate increase from the Federal Reserve next week. Steadily rising inflation has many economists predicting a 100 basis point increase, an entire percentage point. In addition, CPI news increased the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage from 5.97 percent to 6.28 percent, the highest since 2008. While Fed rate increases do not directly affect mortgage interest rates, expect mortgage rates to experience continued volatility and more increases in anticipation of the subsequent Fed rate increase. 


Rental prices and availability are even tighter than homes for sale. With continued buyer demand, decreasing inventory, and few options for those relocating to Central Oregon, I expect prices to remain relatively firm through the remainder of 2022. That said, there have been many price decreases, particularly below the median sale price, creating some opportunities for anyone engaged in the market this fall. Additionally, many local lenders have mortgage interest rates well below the national average. All indications point to significantly fewer homes for sale in the spring of 2023 as home-sellers weigh their options and choose to stay put. As crazy as economic conditions seem, today may be some of the best buying conditions of the past couple of years, with most sellers willing to accept an offer below the asking price. If you are in the market for a mortgage, I recommend speaking with several lenders, as each company has different options and targets a specific type of borrower. 

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Last week the Market Action Index in the chart below was at 40. So as the market adjusts, conditions are beginning to be more favorable for buyers despite rising mortgage interest rates. If you are weighing your options in the housing market, now is the time to thoroughly evaluate the market to be knowledgeable about the current environment. Every week I track the numbers in a spreadsheet, so I can see trends developing before you read about them in the mainstream reports. Please let me know if you need help analyzing the information on EnjoyBendLife.com. And, remember, I want to earn your trust and be your real estate agent!

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