|
Our civilisation has decided, and very justly decided, that determining the guilt or innocence of men is a thing too important to be trusted to trained men. It wishes for light upon that awful matter, it asks men who know no more law than I know, but who can feel the things that I felt in the jury box. When it wants a library catalogued, or the solar system discovered, or any trifle of that kind it uses up its specialists. But when it wishes anything done which is really serious, it collects twelve of the ordinary men standing round. The same thing was done, if I remember right, by the Founder of Christianity.
G.K. Chesterton, The Twelve Men, Tremendous Trifles (1909)
Although the Civil Jury Project focuses on civil jury trials, public confidence in the civil jury system cannot be separated entirely from confidence in criminal juries and grand juries. In my presentations to civic groups, I have found that members of the public rarely distinguish among them as lawyers and judges do. To them, a jury is a jury is a jury.
In our Winter newsletter, published in early February this year, we asked the question of whether our current political climate was seeping into the jury room. I asked the question in a piece entitled, Will the Jury Follow the Instructions?-Politics and the Jury. We also provided a link to a thorough and thoughtful examination of the issue by a former research fellow, Professor Richard Jolly.
It is probably too early to tell, but the questions must be asked. Media coverage, both traditional and social, regarding juries is widespread. In this politically divided country, will this seep into our jury system and undermine our confidence in all juries, whether they be grand, criminal or civil?
I am only interested in cases which are widely reported in any type of media. Only those have the potential to affect potential juror attitudes about our jury system. In 1991, one of our Academic Advisors, Professor Valerie P. Hans, wrote, "Thus just as media accounts of the legal world substantially influence citizens' views and attitudes about law, general media coverage can influence jurors' decision making in the courtroom."
Let's start with grand juries.
"Any good prosecutor can get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich."- Sol Wachtler, Chief Justice, New York Supreme Court (1985)
That no longer appears to be the case.
In a widely reported case, a D.C. man was charged with throwing a sandwich at a federal law enforcement officer wearing a bulletproof vest. He was initially charged with a felony, but the grand jury refused to indict him on that charge. He was then charged with misdemeanor assault and, after a three-day trial, was acquitted.
A grand jury declined to indict six Democratic lawmakers for a video they made and published regarding service members' right to disobey clearly unlawful orders from commanders.
Three different grand juries failed to indict a woman on felony charges stemming from a claim that the woman "jerked into an FBI agent's knee" while she was being detained. After less than two hours of deliberations, a jury returned a verdict of not guilty to a single, lesser misdemeanor charge.
And as I write this, prosecutors have been presenting evidence to a grand jury on whether a former White House aide, Cassidy Hutchinson, may have lied to Congress in her testimony relating to the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
An article by the Pew Research Center (that came out shortly after our Winter 2026 newsletter) reported that in the most recent year with available data (2016) that federal grand juries declined to indict just six people. Between 2007 and 2016 they refused to indict an average of 15 people each year nationwide.
Whether these cases represent a meaningful change in grand jury behavior or merely reflect unusual prosecutions receiving extraordinary publicity remains uncertain. Nevertheless, their visibility raises an important question: Are political attitudes beginning to influence the decisions of citizens summoned to serve as grand jurors?
Next, let's turn to prosecutions.
A study by the Associated Press revealed that the U.S. Justice Department failed to secure felony convictions against most of the 102 protesters arrested in four major cities last year on charges of assaulting federal authorities.
What is the usual conviction rate for assault cases? According to data from the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, 82% of defendants charged with felony or misdemeanor assault were convicted at trial or with a plea deal in the year 2024. The AP's analysis reveals a conviction rate of less than half. The results of these prosecutions were widely reported in media outlets.
And finally, what will be the effect of pardons and commutations on future juries?
It has been shown in both empirical research and anecdotal interviews that jury service results in the individual juror having a greater respect for our judicial system. What happens to jurors who have devoted days or weeks to hearing evidence, following judicial instructions and reaching a verdict, only to learn that the defendant has subsequently received a pardon? Does that experience diminish their confidence in the judicial system? And might it influence their willingness to serve again?
A January 5, 2024, article in The Washington Post reported that as of January 2, 2024 there were 852 convictions in the prosecutions for the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Of those, 138 were convicted at trial and there were 714 pleas. The pardons and commutations followed on January 20, 2025. Of course, this was also widely reported.
If jury service ordinarily strengthens citizens' confidence in judicial institutions, what happens when those citizens find out that the results of their service have been reversed by elected officials? Will that affect the attitudes they bring to future jury service, including civil cases? Although governmental immunity will certainly come into play, some civil rights cases under 42 U.S.C. section 1983 brought against government officials may be decided by a civil jury.
The jury system depends not merely on citizens' willingness to serve, but also on their confidence that their service matters. We do not yet know whether today's political controversies are changing how jurors approach their responsibilities. But the question deserves our attention. If confidence in the jury system erodes, the consequences may not necessarily stop at the criminal courtroom door.
Resources:
Richard Loren Jolly, Red Juries & Blue Juries, 57 Ariz. St. L.J. 229 (2025)
Valerie P. Hans and Juliet Dee, "Media Coverage of Law: Its Impact on Juries and the Public" (1991). Cornell Law Faculty Publications. Paper 324.
Norm Tabler, Adventures in the Law: Justice for Ham Sandwiches?, Voice of Experience, ABA Senior Lawyers, February 2026
John Graham Letch, What to know about federal grand juries, Pew Research Center, February 27, 2026
Jamie Ding and Claire Rush, DOJ went after protesters for felony assault, but juries, judges were unconvinced, Los Angeles Times, September 12, 2026.
Marina Dunbar, Man accused of aiming laser at Trump helicopter acquitted in 35 minutes, The Guardian, January 17, 2026
Salvador Rizo, Jury finds D.C. 'sandwich guy' not guilty of assaulting officer, The Washington Post, November 6, 2025.
Alex Woodward, Jeanine Pirro fails again: DC jury finds protester not guilty of assaulting FBI agent in case she can't stop losing on, The Independent, October 16, 2025
Perry Stein and Salvador Rizo, D.C. Grand jury declines to indict six Democratic lawmakers, The Washington Post, February 10, 2026
Sarah N. Lynch and Jacob Rosen, DOJ trying to indict former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson, who testified about January 6, CBS News, October 8, 2026
Tom Jackman and Spencer S. Hsu, Most Jan. 6 defendants get time behind bars, but less than U.S. seeks, The Washington Post, January 5, 2024
Lauren Ober, I Was a Jan. 6 Juror. What I Learned Surprised Me, The Washington Post, Feb. 17, 2025
Shawn Patterson Jr., Abby Murray, Matthew Levendusky, R. Lance Holbert and Kathleen Hall Jamieson, To Know Courts is to Love Them?, Judicature, Vol. 109, No. 3 (2026)
| 
