Welcome to the 576^th Weekly Update on Hurricane Isaias eve. Y’all PLEASE be safe out there.



If you do end up with any damage or issues, please reach out. When there are storms, it’s even MORE IMPORTANT to connect with honest folks and we have the connections to help. Whether you need help with removing a tree that fell, a trusted roofer, a handyman project, just give us a call so you don’t have to go to the ends of the earth to find a trustworthy tradesperson.

Now, back to the update. This week, rates bounced around and were slightly improved and we're hoping for continued improvement in the coming weeks. The rates are shown just above the trivia question. If you have questions about how these rates apply to your situation, let's talk. But gang as usual, there is LOTS GOING ON, SO LET'S GET STARTED!

CRAZY STORIES

Sometimes art imitates life and sometimes AI robots imitate art, ESPECIALLY if you loved Terminator 2; the acting, the GnR songs on the soundtrack, James Cameron directing the whole thing… of course that was back when it wasn’t real. So, these next robots are saying, “Hasta la vista, baby!”

A company called Figure AI programmed its retiring Figure 02 humanoid robots with a send-off straight out of Terminator 2. The company needed to destroy the robots’ custom parts safely, but taking each one apart by hand would pull engineers off their next project. So Figure asked the internet for ideas, and Arnold Schwarzenegger replied, “You should melt them,” hopefully in his best Terminator voice.

After finding a metal foundry that would help, Figure had its robots practice jumping onto airbags, then trained in simulation to leap into molten steel at a foundry in Finland that the team had never seen or visited. Figure says the footage is real, not AI-generated, and Arnold himself appears in it. The leftover steel is being turned into limited edition keepsakes, available here.

We have had a lot of AI stories over the past few years, but THIS one brings a slightly different angle … Here is a question for your next scroll: is that influencer real? A Barcelona team called The Clueless Agency, led by Rubén Cruz, builds AI models that look and act like real people online. Their star, Aitana López, has more than 300,000 Instagram followers, and even some celebrities reportedly did not realize she was not a person. Why do brands love it? AI influencers do not get tired, run late, or cause any drama. According to the article, these digital AI models can bring in $3,200 to $11,000 a month from ad deals.



As the line between real and fake gets blurrier, people and lawmakers are asking tough questions about consent and honesty. In fact, a bipartisan bill called the Defiance Act has already passed the Senate and is now waiting on the House. Until then, when something pops up in your feed, give it a second look, cuz gang, it might just be code!

REAL ESTATE TO BEHOLD



We’ve had several houses we’ve featured in this section out in Bel Air from the house of the OG founder of Bel Air, to the house famously used in the Fresh Prince of Bel Air, we KNEW we had to include this latest Bel Air listing from the guy that created and founded and sold A TON of … you guessed it, Squishmallows, but we have to warn you, this listing is NOT soft on the wallet!

The creator of Squishmallows, Jonathan Kelly, just listed his Bel Air mansion for almost $38 million. Kelly’s family company, Kelly Toys, launched the ultrasoft plush toys in 2017, and they became a TikTok sensation during the pandemic. The family later sold the company in two deals, in 2020 and 2022, to Jazwares, a Berkshire Hathaway company. Warren Buffett buying you out would be the ultimate SOFT* landing! (dad joke.)

The home at 638 Siena Way covers 16,850 square feet over three stories and sits above the fourth hole at Bel-Air Country Club. Built just a year before Kelly bought it, the property features Indiana limestone, (Go Boilermakers!) bronze metalwork, and French walnut. Kelly paid $26 million in 2023 but, get this, he never moved in. He has rented it out and now feels like it’s time to exit the investment. Sounds like another soft landing! Click below to read more! 

Let’s pop across the pond to Europe and check out another FANTASTIC property in Switzerland with this crypto investor’s amazing property.

Meet Villa Volt, a five-story Alpine retreat in St. Moritz, Switzerland, owned by investor Tobias Reichmuth, the founder of Crypto Finance. The home has about 5,900 sqft, 3 main bedrooms, a guest apartment, and a heated garage with EV chargers for each of its parking spots. But the real star is tucked away beneath the fancy interiors.


Instead of a regular boiler, a Bitcoin mining computer heats the property! The machine runs on solar power, and the heat it gives off is captured by a liquid cooling system and sent to the home’s hot water, floors, and 33-foot indoor pool. Reichmuth says it earned about $36 worth of Bitcoin in its first month (which may not cover the full mortgage). The spa also has a sauna, gym, and a super-cold therapy chamber that chills to -166 degrees Fahrenheit, which is a SKOSH colder than any of our editors want to be at. 

Finally, our editors wanted to close out with ANOTHER awesome compilation of historic properties with, “15 of the Most Famous Historic Houses in America.” The link below includes everything from a Gilded Age castle to a humble farmhouse, and the list is an EPIC FALL BREAK ROAD TRIP waiting to happen. Biltmore in Asheville, North Carolina, is the largest private home ever built in the country, with 250 rooms, 65 fireplaces, and even a bowling alley. Fallingwater, designed by Frank Lloyd Wright, sits right over a waterfall in Pennsylvania. Visit Eldon, Iowa, and you can snap a photo at the American Gothic House, where the center next door even has costumes and props, complete with pitchforks to use at your own risk (please sign the weekly mortgage update waiver.)



There’s Hemingway’s Key West home, which is now filled with 40 to 50 six-toed cats. Oheka Castle on Long Island is the second largest private home ever built in America but may be even more famous thanks to a T-Swift video. AND Mount Vernon, the home of George and Martha Washington, is often credited with kicking off the historic preservation movement. Which one would you visit first? 

THE ECONOMY AND REAL ESTATE

You may have noticed that mortgage rates have increased over the past few weeks. The article below talks about how that could be somewhat of a good thing… keep reading the summary of, “HURRAY FOR HIGHER MORTGAGE RATES.”

Gang, that headline is the bold argument that a Wall Street Journal editorial/opinion columnist wrote last weekend. The writer (who is a Stanford grad and likely salty over their loss to Wake Forest) points out that the 30-year rate hit 7.28% last week, the highest in three years. But zoom out and it looks different. Between 1971 and 2019, the average was about 8%, and rates stayed between 7% and 9% for most of the 1990s, when the economy grew at a strong pace. The super low rates of 2020 and 2021 were the unusual part.

So why are rates rising? A stronger economy, higher inflation, and the Fed and banks buying fewer mortgage bonds all play a role. The column argues there is a silver lining for buyers. Higher rates cool demand, especially from investors, and more homes on the market means buyers have more room to negotiate. Home prices are rising more slowly while wages are growing about twice as fast. If that continues, saving for a down payment gets easier. Whether you agree or not, it is the positive side to today’s rates!

Those rate increases aren’t ALL the Federal Reserve’s fault. Minutes from the September meeting came out this week, and they show most officials think one more rate hike is likely before the end of the year. The Fed raised rates by a quarter point on September 16, and the vote was unanimous and most of those officials expect another increase.



But there is good news. There was no hint of WHEN, and officials said they are keeping an open mind. The Fed’s next meetings are October 28 and December 9. August inflation also came in lower than expected, with the Fed’s favorite gauge showing 3% for core prices and 3.4% overall. That is still above the 2% goal, but it is welcome news.

What does this mean for homebuyers? Treasury yields have climbed and mortgage rates tend to follow those yields. So, keep an eye on the numbers and keep your questions coming! 

Wanted to close out with a Blog from KCM that focuses on First Time Homebuyers and talks about some GOOD THINGS, with their piece titled, Two Moves That Can Get You Into Your First Home Sooner.

For a lot of first-time buyers, owning a home can feel perpetually a few years out of reach. Saving for a down payment takes time, and each year spent renting makes owning feel further off.

But two choices you control can bring your first home years closer, even with affordability as tight as it is right now.

How Long Buying Really Takes

First, one quick definition. “Breaking even” is the point where owning has cost you about the same as renting would have over the same period. After that, owning starts to cost less than renting. Kara Ng, Senior Economist at Zillow, puts it this way:

“Buyers should think about not just when they can afford to buy, but how long they’d need to stay before owning makes more financial sense than renting.”

So how long does that usually take? According to Zillow, about 8.5 years to save for a 20% down payment, then roughly 6.2 more years to break even. Together, that’s just under 15 years. But that math assumes you’re buying a mid-priced home and putting 20% down. Change either one and your timeline gets shorter. Change both and it can shrink fast.

A Starter Home Can Get You There Twice as Fast

A starter home usually means a home in the lower third of local prices, often a condo, townhome, or slightly smaller or older house. Because it costs less, you don’t have to save as much or as long.

Zillow found that nationwide, a starter home takes half the time, about 7.2 years, to save for and come out ahead on, compared with renting (see graph below):

That works out to about 4.6 years to save and 2.6 years to break even.

You Usually Don’t Need To Put 20% Down

Like many first-time buyers, you might assume you need 20% down to even consider buying. But most don’t put down anywhere near that. The National Association of Realtors shows the median down payment for first-time buyers is 10% (see graph below):

The minimums go lower still. Some buyers put down as little as 3% on a conventional loan or 3.5% on an FHA loan, and eligible veterans or buyers in certain rural areas can put down nothing at all.



There’s help with upfront costs, too. Down Payment Resource counts 2,746 assistance programs nationwide, and some can even be stacked together.

Put those together, and the years you thought you needed start to come down.

Bottom Line

Your first home may not be as far off as it feels. When the numbers make sense for you, buying a starter home and putting down less than 20% can get you there years sooner.

Want to see which starter homes in our area could fit your budget?

Let's connect.

RATES:

Pricing and rates remain erratic and volatile. Confirm rates & pricing directly with your loan officer.

Check out the trivia below and remember, there is a drawing to enter to win a gift card. This is your chance to enter for a chance to win the gift card awarded every other month. This trivia question is for the September & October drawing/card.

TRIVIA QUESTION

Well, the Braves lost Wednesday night, so for many folks around here, that’s the end of baseball season. BUT... there's still plenty of playoff baseball left.       

Over the years, the MLB postseason has produced some pretty amazing FIRSTS, LASTS, and ONLYS. In 2019, the Nationals and Astros played the first World Series in which the HOME team lost EVERY SINGLE GAME. Deion Sanders remains the ONLY athlete to play in both a Super Bowl and a World Series.

And way back in 1920, during the World Series, a best-of-NINE series, between the Cleveland Indians and Brooklyn Robins (now the Dodgers) there was an UNASSISTED TRIPLE PLAY, where one player recorded all three outs on a single play!

Which of the following Cleveland Indians players pulled off this once-in-a-lifetime feat?

A) Pinch Thomas

B) Doc Johnston

C) Elmer Smith

D) Les Nunamaker

E) Stan Coveleski

F) Bill Wambsganss

Click here to EMAIL ME YOUR ANSWER.

**Email your answer to me to have your name entered in a drawing for a gift card at the beginning of even months and YES you can go back and answer previous weeks’ questions if you have not answered them already AND if we have not unveiled the answer yet***