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Good Thursday morning!
Well there it was.....a liquidation break that lasted more than 5 minutes! As we mentioned yesterday.....
"At this time, 5830 is key in the S&P cash (SPX) and we will be very close to testing that level at the open this morning, so whether or not that price holds today will be key moving forward."
Price in the S&P opened around 5834 and basically that was the high of the day. It took about an hour and a half for the sellers to really step up their operations, but once the momentum picked up to the downside, around 10:50 AM EST, 5830 was never touched again! Low of the day was 5762!! This is why paying attention to the key levels we give you every morning is so important! Even if you did not get short, not getting long early saved you a ton of money.
The other thing we mentioned was watching price in the ES. Buyers could not get back above 5884 - 5892.50 so that was a big tell that sellers were starting to step up and buyers were switching sides! Yesterdays high was only 5874.25 in the ES. Downside targets were hit and then a whole lot more! Yesterday was a 3 standard deviation day meaning the size of the range was well above expectations!!! This does not happen very often.
Today futures are actually much higher and taking back a large portion of yesterday's losses. Honestly I am quite surprised by this. Overnight inventory is net long and we are very close to upper targets, so my thought is, if the bulls take price outside of prior days range, then yesterday was a one off. IF, however the sellers step up early and we cannot get above 5875 in the ES, then I am looking to get to the short side again.
In the key levels and profile pic below, for the bulls, it will be about getting and staying over 5863 - 5875, then 5884 and then 5892.50 would be the next upside targets. Any price action that stays below 5863 then look for value area high @ 5856 then POC and overnight low @ 5837.50, then lower targets. Again I am surprised at the resiliency of the bulls so let's see if they can wipe away yesterday's losses completely?!?! Time will tell. Futures are trading at 5863 at the time of this writing!
VPOC Update: Finally! A new VPOC was added yesterday @ 5892.50 so now we have one above and we still have 25 below current price. 5788.50 is still the closest one below and could be in play over the next few days.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5863 - 5875
Key Levels: 5856 Value Area High & 5837 POC & 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5810 - 5790
/NQ upside target is: 20,370 - 20,385
Key Level: 20,271 1/2 Back
downside target is : 20,110 - 20,090
/RTY upside target is: 2242 - 2250
downside target is: 2205 - 2195
Economic Data:
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Chicago Fed National Activity Index @ 8:30 AM ET
Beth Hammack Speak @ 8:45 AM ET
PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45 AM ET
New Home Sale @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
52-Week Bill Announcement @11:00 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
2-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
5-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand $5840 with Supply above at $5900-5890
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5850 after a pullback below $5840 looking to play SHORT targeting $5820 then $5811
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5840 after a break and retest above $5850 playing LONG targeting $5865 then $5880
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SPY - Demand at $577-578 with Supply above at $581-582 ( previous demand )
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $581 after a break and retest above $582 looking to play LONG targeting $584 then $585
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $580 after a retest from $579 where Demand would flip back to Supply targeting $577 then $576
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/NQ - Key Demand at $20259 with at Supply $20400
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $20259 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $20280 targeting $20300 the $20345
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $20250 and holding looking to play short targeting $20200 then $20100
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QQQ - Key Demand at $491-490 with Supply above at $497-496
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $490 looking to play long from a break and retest at $491 targeting $492 then $494
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $490 after a break and retest below $489 looking to play short targeting $488 then $487
Also watching …
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NVDA Key Demand $139-140 with Supply above at $144 HOD
Bearish
Sellers trapped below $140 after a break and retest from $139 looking to play short targeting $137 then $136
Bullish
Buyers trapped above $140 after a break and retest from $140 looking to play long targeting $142 then new HOD
Have a great day!
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