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Good Friday morning!
The picture above says it all. Yesterday the markets were ruled by the machines....the terminators....and bodies lay all over the place after that beating. The chop and volatility were intense and even with all the ups and down, and traders accounts being raked, the ES opened at 5742 and closed at 5739. In other words went absolutely no where! The happiest people in the room were the Dukes as they took in a boatload of commissions as traders were trying to figure out what was going on. The "Duke's" reference, for those who don't know, is from the movie Trading Places, one of the funniest and best movies regarding stock market manipulation.
Anyway, as far as today, futures are lower and we just had the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data released and futures dropped even further as the numbers came in a bit hot. We still have Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM, so just a heads up.
In the profile pic and key levels below, the sharp drop from Tuesday, and essentially balance yesterday, keeps the edge with the bears. We are also opening with a true gap lower under the prior low at 5720. By the way, I hope you saw and took advantage of that our downside target was hit to the tick yesterday. Trust me, I am not saying it will be like this everyday, but as we mentioned...
"Any price action that takes out yesterday's low, which was poor, and I have circled it for you, then look for lower targets, then possibly 5720."
That is our first key line in the sand for today. If buyers can take price back above 5720, then look for VAL at 5738 then POC, 1/2 back and overnight high, all at 5750! This will be very important for today. If price cannot get back up there, then sellers still want to liquidate and the path of least resistance is still down in the near future. Now if sellers keep the pressure on and keep price below 5720, then look for lower targets at 5700 - 5690 then 5675. Futures are trading at 5717 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's added or taken out yesterday, so we still have 6 above and 22 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5770 - 5780
Key Levels: 5750 POC & 1/2 Back Very key for today!
downside target is: 5700 - 5690 then 5675
/NQ upside target is: 20,120 - 20,160
Key Level: 19,937 Prior Low
downside target is : 19,875 - 19,845
/RTY upside target is: 2095 - 2105
downside target is: 2060 - 2050
Economic Data: Red Star Event (Very Light Day)
2-Yr FRN Note Settlement
Personal Income and Outlays @ 8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks @ 3:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5720-25 then below that at $5660 with Supply above $5837 HOD- $5825
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5750 looking to play a break and retest above $5775 long targeting $5790 then $5815
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5750 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5740 targeting GAP fill $5720 then a break down into $5600s
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SPY Key demand at then at $566- 565 then at $556 with Supply above that at $576-574
Bullish Sellers trapped above $566 looking to play a break and retest from $565 long targeting $564 then a breakout mid high $562s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $566 after a break and retest below $565 targeting $564s then a breakdown into $563s
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/NQ Key demand at $19980 - $20000 with Supply above at $20380
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19980 looking to play a break and retest above $20000 long targeting $20100s then a breakout back into low $20200s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19980s looking to play short from $19965 targeting a breakdown $19800s then $19650s
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QQQ Key Demand at $481 then at $484 with Supply at $491
Bullish Sellers trapped above $484 looking to play a break and retest from $485 targeting $487 then a breakout into low mid $488s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $483 looking to play a break and retest short from $482 targeting $481s then $479s
Have a great day and do something fun this weekend!!
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