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Weekly Analyst Review

01 December 2023

 

Bottom Line Up Front

In the early hours of 26 November 2023, unknown gunmen attacked the Wilberforce military barracks located in Freetown, Sierra Leone. Locals report that the perpetrators used firearms and IEDs to breach the walls of the complex, managing to help thousands of prisoners escape from the central jail. There were reports circulating online of armed clashes near a barracks in Murray Town (home to the Sierra Leone Navy) and outside another military site in the capital.


It was further reported that the targeted detention centers including Pademba Road Prison, hold more than 2000 prisoners. Consequently, the government imposed a nationwide curfew with immediate effect.


Wilberforce military barracks is one of the most important military barracks in Sierra Leone’s capital, Freetown. The fact that the barracks were targeted along with a number of other military sites across the capital, points toward the possibility of an attempted coup against the ruling government, which has become a common trend in Western Africa.


Notably, Sierra Leone had Presidential elections in June 2023 where President Bio from the Sierra Leone’s People’s Party was declared the winner. The opposition All People’s Congress (APC) immediately rejected the results and accused Bio of electoral misconduct. Therefore, TRAC cannot rule out the possibility that the APC attempted to stage a coup to overthrow Bio's government.


It is worth mentioning that this incident came at a time when President Julius Maada Bio was away from the country and not expected to return as soon as he did. Bio came back just in time to deal with the situation and impose a nationwide curfew.


On the other hand, Islamic State (IS) insiders were also seen celebrating this incident. Interestingly, the insiders mentioned that the perpetrators came outside of Sierra Leone with the sole intention of attacking the detention centers. It should be noted that IS is known for prison breaks not only in Iraq/Syria but across the African continent. The fact that most of the prisoners successfully escaped perfectly falls in line with IS’s modus operandi. However, it is too soon to come to a conclusion. TRAC will continue to monitor the situation and will update accordingly.

Other Developments

TRAC Insight:

As-Sahab Media (al-Qaeda Central / AQC) Releases

"This is Gaza that exposed the Human Rights Melody"

by Salem al-Sherif

On 13 October 2023, al-Qaeda Central Command (AQC) celebrated Hamas’ attack on Israel, stating that the incident surpassed their imagination 'in its greatness', adding that it made 9/11 look smaller compared to "al-Aqsa Flood" impact and what will follow.


AQC deemed it a 'rare opportunity' and that Muslims should exploit to engage in battles everywhere, inciting Muslims to target Zionists in the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. They further called for Muslims to accept Hamas’ leadership call to action for attacks inside and outside of the Palestinian territories, adding that Muslims should attack the Jews and everyone who supports them everywhere.


Since mid-October, AQC franchises, including their al-Malahim Cyber Army unit have issued at least 17 individual statements regarding the support for Gaza and Hamas, including the one released on 24 November 2023.


In the 24 November release was a chilling one, specifically aimed at the United States. While there was subtle hint of praise for those who protested on behalf of Palestine, the message was clear...protests are not enough and nothing is gained by them. What followed, was an unnerving call to action:


"Do what you must do with the current regime from Republicans and Democrats, as there’s no difference between them, do it, before the hands of jihadists reach America again.


The United States needs a new civil war to transform its leaders and their supporters from being animals who live on the flesh and blood of the oppressed in the Middle East, Central and Southern America and Africa, to becoming humans that can be lived with. Without this, the conflict will never end and you’ll witness the elimination of the Jews and this will be based on everyone’s demand, as everyone and everything are fed up with them."


Along with the standard message of inciting lone wolves, AQC also made reference to the inaction of Muslim pilots and then stated a blatant call to action for suicide missions by airplane, such as that of 9/11, calling on Jordanians, Egyptians, and the sons of Saudi Arabia.


What is of particular interest and most unusual for this anti-West/anti-American militant organization is that in this most recent statement, AQC offered an 'asylum status' to places like Richmond, Virginia, for their resounding show of support for Palestine, stating, "It is wise and fair to not conduct any attacks in countries that oppose the Zionist entity and who called for the protection of the Palestinians. Among these is the American city of Richmond that declared its support to our people in Gaza."

TRAC Incident Report:

Police Eliminate Bala Wuta, Dogo Na Sahura, and Hassan Bukuru, Three Bandit Leaders Partaking in the Massive Dansabau Forest Bandit Summit in Kankara LGA, Katsina State, Nigeria

Dankarami, Bandit warlord of Zamfara State (archive photo)

On 28 November 2023, following reports of a massive bandit gathering in the Dansabau Forest, security forces carried out a raid aimed at neutralizing their leaders. During the operation, Nigerian forces killed Bandit leaders, Bala Wuta, Dogo Na Sahura, and Hassan Bukuru. However, security forces were unable to continue the operation, since they were repelled by gunmen.


On this date, Bandit leaders of Katsina and Zamfara states, including the “bandit emperor” Dankarami, gathered in the Dansabau Forest, Kankara Local Government Area (LGA) for a leadership summit, which should be of concern for all those inside and around Katsina.


As TRAC has assessed prior, the purpose of this meeting was to create an alliance or at the very least, a “non-aggression deal” between bandit groups in Katsina and Zamfara. However, the killing of Bala Wuta, Dogo Na Sahura, and Hassan Bukuru has created a vacuum of power in Katsina, which would be very convenient "bandit emperor" Dankarami, who will exploit this power vacuum to increase his power and expand its operations in Katsina state. Indeed, Dankarami has the resources and leadership skills to control large groups of bandits in both Zamfara and Katsina.


In terms of the raid, the obvious question for TRAC is, if Nigerian security forces knew when and where the meeting was taking place and had the wherewithal to kill three Bandit leaders attending the meeting, why would security forces bypass the option to simply airstrike the entire location and eliminate this persistent danger to not only Katsina state but also to the surrounding areas? TRAC contends that the Nigerian security forces not only knew where and when this summit would take place, but also, hand-picked these three leaders to eliminate for unknown reasons. The implications are that “bandit emperor” Dankarami actually told Nigerian security who he wanted eliminated and at his bequest, the Nigerian security forces did his bidding.


TRAC maintains that the bandits who took part in the summit at Dansabau Forest undoubtedly will retaliate for the killing of their leaders, by carrying out attacks in Kankara LGA which lies within the borders of Katsina. But TRAC posits that this retaliation will be mostly for show, as it is highly probable that Dankarami engineered the entire CTO.

TRAC Incident Report:

Father Hans-Joachim Lohre, Kidnapped by Suspected Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) in November 2022, was Freed, Mali

On Sunday, 26 November 2023, the kidnapped German priest, Father Hans-Joachim Lohre was freed in Mali and transported to Germany. The details of the circumstances of his release and his current health status are unknown at this time. Known as “Ha-Jo,” the German priest had spent around 30 years in Mali, teaching at the Institut de Formation Islamo-Chrétienne in Bamako and actively engaged in inter-religious dialogue.


This marks the second German freed in the Sahel within a year, following a humanitarian released in December 2022. Several other hostages, including a South African and an Italian family, remain captive in the region.


Father Lohre was abducted on 20 November 2022, while he was fulfilling his duties in Bamako, but his kidnapping, rare for the capital, was unclaimed by any group, although TRAC suspects that al-Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) may have been behind it. One of the hallmarks of AQIM operational tactics (not to mention group financing) is kidnapping. With the January 2016 kidnappings of Swiss missionary, Beatrice Stockley and Australian doctors Ken and Jocelyn Elliott, combined with the January “proof of life” videos of the South African, Stephen McGowan and the Swedish national, Johan Gudtafsson, AQIM announced quite loudly that not only do they still have Western hostages but are actively acquiring more.  


Unlike Islamic State, AQIM holds hostages long term; they are in the kidnap for ransom (K&R) business. It is estimated that the kidnap-for-ransom business in the Sahel region alone has put at least $89 million in the coffers of AQIM since 2003. More than 90% of the group’s funding derives from this single financial source. The average ransom for the release of a Western hostage is $6.5 million.

On Our Radar:

 

TRAC Incident Report: Former Deputy Head of the Russian Administration in the Occupied Kharkiv Oblast, Oleksandr Slisarenko, Dies in the Explosion of His Vehicle, Belgorod, Russia

TRAC Incident Report: Houthi (Ansarallah) Weaponized Drone, Intercepted by US Navy Destroyer, in the

Bab al-Mandab Strait, Yemen

TRAC Incident Report: Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF/PKK) Announces the Death of Four Members by Islamic State (IS) in Deir Ezzor, Syria 

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