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PDF | Research | Week of Jun 30 2025

Quote of the Week

“Markets can take some comfort in that we’ve, in a sense, weathered some of the storm.”

- Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist, PNC Asset Management (WSJ). 

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Private Credit – The Final Reckoning (First of a Series)

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Private Credit – The Final Reckoning

(Last of a Series)

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Markets happen when you’re making other plans. This was true again last week as confrontation with Iran, instead of caving US markets, supported them. Equity indices approached record highs, and the US dollar strengthened, at least for a time. We expect inflation and rate uncertainty will continue to weigh on investors. 


Nevertheless, April’s “sell America” motif has shifted. “We didn’t sell anything,” one experienced investor told FT’s Katie Martin. “The world is overweight US for a reason.” That again puts the spotlight on what private markets can do in an ever-changing macro landscape. 


At the bank-replacement end of the market, large asset managers see convergence as a trend. One example is the confluence of channels: retail and institutional. Then there’s the blurring of assets: public and private. And finally, as distribution from managers to investors becomes more sophisticated, differences in asset liquidity should narrow as well...


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Mid-Year 2025 Private Equity Survey



Learn more about private equity leaders’ perspectives on today’s market environment and how they’re influencing investment decisions.

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New: Private Capital Call Podcast



EP11: Marcel Schindler, StepStone’s Head of Private Debt, on the evolving private credit landscape.

Chart of the Week

Secondary Effects

Since Liberation Day, leveraged loan trading prices have slowly moved higher.

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Source: Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index

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Bloomberg: Leveraged Lending Insights

US Leveraged Loans Return 0.76% in June

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The Bloomberg US Leveraged Loan Index (Ticker: LOAN) advanced 0.76% in June after a 1.53% gain in May, bringing its year-to-date return to 2.77%...

Contact: Vincent Daigger/ Bloomberg

PDI Picks

Scrutiny of the bank/fund intersection

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Lines of credit from banks to credit vehicles have grown at an exponential rate, warranting regulatory attention.

As our most recent LP Perspectives study showed (see chart), the attitude of limited partners towards fund finance is – in more than half of cases – negative. But what do regulators make of this growing field?...


Contact: Andy Thomson / Private Debt Investor

Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

Supported by increase in high grade financings, 2Q25 US M&A loan volume up 64% y-o-y; LBO activity declines

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Brushing aside tariff woes, inflation concerns and geopolitical fears, US lenders raised US$ 228.5bn of new loan assets in 2Q25, a 29% jump compared to the year ago period, to push 1H25 totals to nearly US$ 407bn (compared to less than US$ 358bn raised in 1H24)...

Contact: Maria Dikeos / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Share of IPO capital raised by backing type

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With the S&P 500 index climbing back near its historical peak and surpassing the psychological threshold of 6,000, there is potential for a resurgence in IPO activity...

Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Smaller, Non-Systemic U.S. Banks Most Concentrated to Non-Bank Lending

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Learn More


A relatively small percentage of U.S. banks provide loans to non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), according to analysis of new regulatory data for the entire banking industry by Fitch Ratings. Around 13% or 576 FDIC banks reported balances of either NBFI loans or unfunded commitments, totaling over $2 trillion, most of which is held in domestic offices at March 31, 2025...


Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of Loans with Uncapped Synergies & Cost Savings EBITDA Addbacks

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 11.1% as of 20 June) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, are lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans). The brown line displays the BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield (currently at 7.1% as of 20 June, down from its one-year peak of 8.5% on 7 April), which tracks the performance of USD denominated below investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US...


Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

June Update: Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.