March 03, 2020
The Miles Franklin Newsletter
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From The Desk Of David Schectman
"It's not the size of the pin that matters; what matters is the size of the bubble." -  Peter Schiff
 
"That the gold and silver price smash occurred against a background of plunging stock prices and interest rates and genuine threats of economic upheaval due to a developing coronavirus pandemic is beyond otherworldly – it’s a temptation for voluntary drug addiction to escape the near impossibility of intelligently reconciling all the facts. Most amazing is the near-instant explanation that physical gold and silver were dumped to fund margin losses on stocks. That’s akin to residents in a just-designated cone of severe hurricane warning dropping everything to call their insurance companies to cancel their windstorm insurance. - Ted Butle r

Gold and silver had a bad week and a worse Friday. For a good reason, though. At the start of 2020 the Cartel was in a bind; they could not reduce their short position because the longs did not panic, closing when the prices were attacked – standard theme since the end of May 2019 at least. Early indications were that metal prices would run fast and high in 2020 and the Cartel was facing a short squeeze, unless they could find a way out. 

This was presented at the end of January when Comex futures expirations offered the Cartel the opportunity not to roll over expiring futures. The OI for gold dropped by almost 200 000 contracts and the silver OI also fell substantially. Given the price trend into January, it meant that the Cartel had to pay a bundle to counter parties. 

They must have paid a price that went miles beyond mere loss of profit, to make a really deep dent in their pride and self-esteem, probably for the first time ever! 

At the end of February, they were in the same boat, but with too few March futures to apply the same tactic. They were compelled to revert to their old method to force prices so low that holders of other contracts closed their positions, including fresh buyers being stopped out. Instead of the 200k contracts closed in January, during the last week of February only about 30 000 were closed. The Cartel’s problem is still that if the perceived threat of the virus to the US increases as more cases are reported, panic buying of gold during the next 2-3 weeks can be expected. Whether they will be able to “contain” prices low enough were that to happen, is doubtful. – Daan Joubert

Gold held on to its recent gains pretty good considering the waves of deflation rocking the financial markets last week. It’s important to keep in mind that in the early stages of a selling panic everything goes down. This is because leveraged speculators must sell something to cover their losses in their margined positions; gold and silver is one of the things people sell to cover their losses. – Mark Lundeen
 
I expect a dead-cat bounce in the stock market that may or may not last all week. If the Fed increases the amount of money spewing from its printing press it might extend the DCB longer than a week. The precious metals sector should benefit from this and it might even continue higher when the stock market inevitably takes another turn for the worse and heads toward “bear market” territory. For precedence on this pattern, see the fall of 2008. – Dave Kranzler
David's Commentary (In Blue):

Our favorite Chinese curse, “May You Live In Interesting Times” sums up the on-going events of last week. No doubt, all of our clients and readers of our newsletter are fascinated by the stock market crash, the Coronavirus, the gold and silver ambush and the state of confusion in the Democratic Party choices for President. What a week.
 
I looked forward to next week to see what the markets would offer up after a weekend to think things through. What do you know! The stock market came roaring back on Monday and it now appears that the markets, in their wisdom, have decided that the events that prompted a dumping of everything, from stocks to precious metals, is no longer a problem. That is what you get in a world where computers make the buy and sell decisions. Why even gold and silver are making a comeback with gold, as of Tuesday morning, back above the 1600 handle. Silver is struggling to recapture 17 but is close.
 
I decided to purchase another 6 silver mint boxes (3,000 oz) late Sunday night. In the midst of all the confusion, several things are crystal clear to me: silver is too cheap, and so is gold. They were sold off (most likely via SLV and GLD shares) to raise capital to meet margin calls resulting from a crashing stock market. They are liquid and can immediately be turned into cash. 
 
Most analysts agree that over the next two weeks the Fed will gift the stock market with an additional two interest rate drops. That is almost always a wind behind the sails for gold and silver. When the price drops and the reason has nothing to do with fundamentals, I usually add to my physical gold and silver holdings. I am in this for the long haul and we are getting closer and closer to the end game.
 
...the considerable willingness of governments and central banks to act should not be confused with effectiveness...
The above quote from El-Erian suggests that no matter how much liquidity the bank of Japan injects and no matter how low the Fed drops interest rates, they cannot contain the Coronavirus and they cannot boost the economy. They can temporarily prop up the stock market, the key word being “temporarily,” but the Black Swan is here, and this will play itself out.
LONDON (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs expects the coronavirus to drive the Federal Reserve to cut U.S. interest rates by 75 basis points by June it said on Friday, implying as many as three cuts starting at its next meeting in March.

Traders are pricing in a 72% chance of a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch. The central bank’s next policy-setting meeting is March 17-18. It then has one April 28-29 followed by another June 9-10.

“Although moderate Fed rate cuts are unlikely to be very powerful, the committee will probably be reluctant to disappoint market expectations for substantial rate cuts for fear of tightening financial conditions further,” Goldman Sachs said in a note.

The bank expects full-year global GDP growth of about 2% despite a short contraction during the first half of the year.

Global stocks have slumped 13% this week, in their worst run since the 2008 financial crisis, as coronavirus cases surged outside China.

Reporting by Thyagaraju Adinarayan; editing by Marc Jones
Can any rational, open-minded person deny that the Coronavirus is a Pandemic? It is already showing up in over 60 countries. Trump says (foolishly) it is just another flu. Oh? Well, it is in one sense, like the flu, it will travel around the world and hundreds of millions of people will be infected. Even if the “fatality” rate is only 3%, it has already shown that it is shutting down the global economy as cities are quarantined and factories and businesses shutter their doors. Like most things, it’s emotions and people’s actions that determine the outcome. People are scared, and they will avoid crowds. Satellite photos show conclusively that pollution has vanished from Chinese cities and the Chinese are not back at work. They are not consuming, and they are not filling the supply lines to all the businesses and factories around the globe who rely on their production. 
 
Which begs the question, how can the global economy show growth in this environment? It can’t. And if the global economy turns negative, how can stock markets hold up? They can’t. And if the experts estimate that the virus will be with us for at least 18-24 months, what does this portend for the stock market? 
 
Since it was already priced for perfection and very old in the tooth, it’s not good. And what’s not good for the stock market is very good for precious metals.
 
Jim Rickards summed it up. He wrote:
The all-important 10-year Treasury yield fell to a record low this morning as investors continue to pour into safe-haven assets.
 
The 10-year yield dropped to 1.32%, falling beneath its previous record low of 1.325%, which it set in July 2016 following Brexit.
 
That means the bond market is projecting a poor outlook for the global economy. And over the long haul, the bond market has an excellent track record of being right.
 
Gold was down big today, losing $45.20. But that’s not because of gold itself. It’s all about the falling stock market.
 
When you think about it, it doesn’t make sense.
 
After all, if investors are fleeing for safety, which we’re seeing in the Treasury market, why wouldn’t they be buying up gold as well?
 
Gold was up close to $30 yesterday, before the price began dropping late in the day.
 
Here’s the likely reason why gold is falling right now when it should be rising…
 
With the stock market plummeting, hedge funds and other institutional investors have had to suddenly raise cash to meet margin calls on their positions in the equity markets. And they had to get the cash from somewhere.
 
Gold is a very liquid asset that can quickly be traded for cash.
 
They can either sell the actual gold bullion they own, or they can unload their positions in gold ETFs (like GLD).
 
So my estimate is that they dumped their gold positions to raise the money. And that’s been driving the listed gold price lower.
 
It has nothing to do with gold’s fundamentals, which are actually very strong. Demand is increasing, central banks are hoarding record amounts of gold and new supplies are dwindling.
 
That’s a recipe for skyrocketing prices, and the bull market in gold is still very much intact.
 
The latest selling is just a quirk of the market, in which institutions have to raise cash in order to cover their positions when the market’s dropping.
 
Again, it has really nothing to do with gold itself. This is just a temporary blip.
 
If you haven’t bought gold yet, this is an ideal opportunity to scoop up gold at a bargain-basement price. Or, if you already own gold, to stock up on more.
 
For gold at least, it’s an ideal opportunity to “buy the dip.”
 
Gold is going much, much higher.
 
I’m not sure how many more opportunities like this we’re going to see. I urge you to take advantage of it while you can.
As our long-time readers know, we are bullish on silver – even in the face of all the manipulation it has faced. Silver has fallen harder than Gold. Support lies at the prior low of $16.57. The peak on February 20, 2019, at $16.20 is critical support. We’re still up 17% since the low of $14.35 last May, despite the recent decline. Check out Lawrie Williams’ comments on silver.
LAWRIE WILLIAMS
Silver struggles amidst coronavirus market meltdown

Equities markets around the world lost over 10% in value last week over growing concerns that the Ncov-19 coronavirus would adversely affect Q1 2020 GDP figures and perhaps beyond. One might have expected key safe haven metals like gold and silver to surge as investors switch from risky equities to the safe havens of precious metals. Initially this did prove to be the case, but gold and silver then also suffered badly – the latter particularly so, with the gold:silver ratio (GSR) rising to an almost unprecedented 95 plus, meaning that it would take over 95 ounces of silver to match one ounce of gold in value.

The media has been full of experts predicting that silver would be the great beneficiary of the runup in gold prices, and in the past, this has usually been the case with silver acting like ‘gold on steroids’ as the saying goes. When the gold price goes up that of silver generally rises at a faster pace and indeed it went up to almost $19 an ounce in the initial precious metals price surge on Monday, but it has come down far more sharply than gold since, ending the week at $16.63 – a massive fall of around 16% on the week, perhaps living up to its other description as the ‘devil’s metal’ due to its tendency to confound the expert opinions.

The silver price in particular seems to have been engineered downwards and probably the gold price too. Ted Butler who follows the ups and downs in the precious metals markets has the reason behind this being the prospective losses that would be incurred by the big seven gold and silver shorts at the higher price levels being seen at the beginning of the week. In his article entitled Bear Stearns Déjà vu? He points to the similarities with the Bear Stearns collapse in 2008 leading to JPMorgan taking it over at a knockdown price. In that case the Bear Stearns short position in the silver market. with the silver price rising, potentially exposed it to enormous paper losses. The subprime market collapse, which brought down Lehmann Brothers later in the year exacerbating the falls, did not come soon enough to rescue Bear Stearns.

Butler reckons the potential debt exposure for the big 7 shorts in the rising precious metals price scenario was as much as $8billion and the only way this could be mitigated was for gold and silver prices on the futures markets to be brought down very sharply so that some of this exposure could be liquidated at much lower price levels. As silver is a hugely smaller market this would be much easier to do. Consequently gold was brought down by only around 6% as against silver’s 16% on the week peak to trough.

Undoubtedly profit taking will have played a part in the falls in both gold and silver, but the 16% silver decline is way above the likely falls due to this aspect of trading, even possibly aggravated by a realization that industrial demand will almost certainly fall due to the coronavirus. But again that would be unlikely to generate a fall back of this kind of magnitude. That leaves market manipulation of some kind as the most likely cause of this huge weekly fall and the Butler explanation fits this theory well.

Gold and silver prices both picked up a little this morning but still remain weak. Asian equities were up, but European stocks, after opening strongly, pulled back quite sharply and were unchanged to down at the time of writing. The GSR rose again though to the high 95s which again means that silver is underperforming gold. Of course it remains to be seen how U.S. markets react once they open.
LeMetropole Cafe

Last week featured one of The Gold Cartel’s most blatant, in your face attack operations ever.

A cave man could have spotted JP Morgan extending its "criminal enterprise" maneuvers last Monday following the Comex close when it began bombing the price of silver, having finished its Comex trading session right below $19. That caveman, who saw what was up, must have been laughing when JPM did the exact same thing on Tuesday. JPM’s daily assaults were relentless the rest of the week, culminating with the slaughter of the silver price on Friday when it bottomed at $16.28.

Clearly one of their efforts was in part to influence price of gold, via The Silver Signal. Gold, the barometer of US financial market health, had risen to 7-year highs, signaling something was wrong from their point of view re public perception. The gold price, while off of its highs, had held up very well all week as the US stock market indexes plunged.

The cartel’s pressure became too much for gold to hold up further beginning on Thursday night with its price dropping $160 from its recent 7 year high before recovering late in the day on Friday.

There is no doubt here that The Gold Cartel is in big league trouble about carrying on their gold price suppression scheme due to their physical supply problem. Recent financial market issues are only going to exacerbate that problem, with this dramatic paper price drop on Friday only going to make it worse for them as investors all over the world want to BUY physical gold.

Naturally, there was great curiosity what the precious metals are going to do on the Access Market opening tonight. Gold quickly rose $6 above its prior Access Market close to $1592, while silver quickly dropped a dime. The gold/silver ratio went right back to an all-time high of 96.40. Stock futures were off sharply with the DOW down 300.

Gold then quickly followed silver down, making a low of $1574 and for silver it was $16.31.

Both were made in fast market conditions. Of note: silver steadied up noticeably as gold swooned. That sort of unusual price action is a legit sign that JPM is using this opportunity to continue to cover some of their short positions while they can. With the price of gold set to take off soon, they have to make their move now.

Simultaneously, US stock market futures are not rallying for the time being and the yield of our 10 yr. T note has CRASHED to 1.03%. Prior to this recent move lower of late, its all-time low was 1.3%. The appeal of owning physical gold and silver just went up another notch.

Gold rose to $1606 and then sold off. Silver quieted right down after making it back to $16.91.

The physical gold market is on fire. The Gold Cartel can sit on the gold price in the paper market all they want, which will prove to be futile. Arbitrage selling of relatively expensive physical gold and simultaneous buying of cheap paper gold on the Comex will make the cabal’s suppression efforts of the gold price futile.

JPM has upped the ante to flush out silver longs on Comex, so they can cover more of their short positions. The same outrage beat just goes on and on.

JPM has buried the silver price ever since its Monday afternoon bludgeoning. It has gone straight down, looking like a waterfall, now at $17.15.

*That sudden hit in the gold price took its toll on one of the only assets which had been holding its own this week during the dramatic liquidity crisis around the world. With all financial assets under pressure, the gold price has TANKED under further market liquidity pressure and made a low of $1570, following collapsing silver, which printed $16.45.

What The Gold Cartel managed to do FOR THE MOMENT, is to take away gold as a go to fear trade investment. The Silver Signal has said it all since Monday afternoon. The gold price has now been slaughtered, following silver much lower. That said, the big picture for gold technically looks explosive following the completion of its super powerful base. See monthly chart below. As soon as this liquidation is over with, that is.

Technically, gold was way overbought and, by hook or by crook, THEY have finally been able to use that to their advantage to stave off the inevitable historic gold price rise that is not too far off.

Of note is the gold/silver ratio rose to 96+, a new ALL-TIME high, before backing off.
All dips in the gold price, larger ones and smaller ones, have been bought since May, as you know. Nothing has changed about my opinion that The Gold Cartel has blown up in terms of their ability to affect the gold price like it has for so long because their available physical gold supply to meet surging demand is just not there. As a result, all the tricks they have used over the past years to facilitate their suppression scheme won’t work. They have been bailed out temporarily due to liquidity selling.

The gold open interest fell 4,504 contracts to 722,120. The silver open interest only lost 8,625 contracts to 218,370. Both gold and silver are at historically through the roof high levels. The Gold/Cartel is in full attack mode to take them out. Interestingly enough, the gold specs have cleaned up and The Gold Cartel has taken mega losses. That is a rarity, to put it mildly. Silver is another story. JPM is raking in the dough again.

Before the Comex day was done, gold made a low of $1562 and silver a low of $16.28. Not pretty.
We all know why gold and silver were smashed. Look no further than JPMorgan and friends over at Comex. 
 
What a travesty that the CFTC allow this to continue to happen. The regulators are there to protect the banks, not us regular folks. Ed Steer and Ted Butler explain what is happening.
Ed Steer
 
What we witnessed yesterday was criminal in every respect...yet the CFTC, the CME Group -- and the DoJ just sit there and do nothing, except aid and abet. And don't get me started on the precious metal mining industry...
 
As Ted has been pointing out for some time now, how silver and gold prices unfold from here depended on whether or not the Big 7/8 commercial traders that are holding huge but unrealized losses on the short side, were able to snooker the Managed Money traders [and others] out of their historic and unprecedented net long positions. Well, they showed up in force this past week. Their swath of destruction through the precious metals complex -- and their associated equities, was massive. Fortunately, this situation won't remain this way for long, but it's still an outrageous nonetheless, at least in my soul.
 
And one last thing. Any and all commentaries that you read or hear on the Internet [ regardless of who says it ] that don't mention the above Big 7 shorts as being the sole reason why precious metal prices got bombed this past week, you can safely ignore...as they don't know what they're talking about.
 
After Friday's price action...closing well below silver's 200-day moving average...one would think that any Managed Money trader, plus others on the long side that were going to sell, would have sold their long positions yesterday, plus gone short in the process...with the Big 7 shorts gobbling up every long position offered. That's the most likely scenario, but we won't know the lay of the land until next Friday COT Report.
 
"An outrage. But you've got to give it to them for smart. Smashing the precious metals under the cover of the Dow crash is brilliant. And it is so obvious what they've done, a blind man could see it. Of course, there won't be a word from the CFTC or Justice.
 
F**ck 'em. We're right, and history will prove us so. Bet gold and silver bounce back, particularly when the Fed does what we know they'll do, and print dollars. Can't wait to read Ted's analysis." --  a subscriber
 
"An outrage" said the subscriber in the above quote -- and the person who made that statement wished to remain anonymous, but was more than qualified to make it.
 
I called it a criminal act, which is what it was. But call it what you wish, there can be no doubt in anyone's mind that Ted's Big 7 shorts were behind yesterday's bloodbath in the precious metals...just like they've been all week. The people responsible for aiding and abetting this "outrage" over at the CFTC, CME Group and the DoJ, should be hung from the nearest lamp standards for allowing this travesty to play out in the COMEX future market.
 
But as Ted said in his weekly review last Saturday, cornered animals are dangerous creatures -- and will resort to anything to save their own hides...which is precisely what they did.
 
In our conversation yesterday, Ted's back-of-the-envelope calculation showed that the Big 7 shorts cut their open and unrealized margin call loses by around fifty percent, to something around the $3.5 billion-dollar mark. I could be out by a bit -- and once Ted has had the time to spend some time on this, plus "sleep on it"...it could be a bit more than that, or a bit less.
 
But are they done yet...particularly in gold.
 
I would suspect, considering that silver was closed a long way below its 200-day moving average on Friday, that they've been able to extricate themselves from their open loses in silver, but gold is still a big albatross around their collective necks.
 
They weren't able to break gold below its 50-day moving average on Friday even on an intraday basis, so the jury is still out on whether we've seen the low for this move down or not, or whether there's more gold price pain to come. Ted said that he doesn't exclude that possibility...but my side bet, the usual ten bucks, is that they can't -- and if they do, it won't be by much.
 
So hang onto your hats, as it will be a breathtaking ride going forward.
 
Ted's Big 7 short sellers spent most of the New York trading session engineering gold and silver prices lower -- and had started on platinum long before that. However, palladium sailed during the COMEX trading session, so they didn't have a whole heck of a lot to show for it when the day was done.
 
Make no mistake about it, the short positions held by these traders are top of mind for them, especially for the smaller members of this not-so-august group. And as Ted pointed out in his weekly review on Saturday, never underestimate what these cornered rats will do to extricate themselves from the financial hole that they've dug for themselves.
 
With the dollar index down on the day -- and the equity markets in New York cratering, the precious metals should have been up across the board, but 'da boyz' were there to make sure that didn't happen.
 
Well, the proverbial pin has arrived -- and the biggest "Everything Bubble" the world has ever known is in the initial stages of imploding. No amount of interest rate cuts, money printing or Tweets from the White House will save it now.
 
However, that won't prevent the central banks of the world from attempting it...but even they know that the proverbial brick wall is upon them -- and it's still an open question whether this is failing by circumstance...or design. This contravirus thingy is now completely out of control, but no one in a position of so-called "authority" is prepared to utter the unspeakable word...pandemic...but that's what we have.
 
We've just seen the thin edge of the wedge on all of this. Before the end of March the reality of the situation will be obvious to all -- and will have sunk deeply into the psyche of the world's population -- and after that, any and all bets on anything will be off.
 
The rush to cover by the Big 7 shorts appeared to be a foreshock of what may be about to come. Interest rate cuts, either in the U.S...or worldwide...are coming, as will the money printing that occurs concurrently. The next FOMC meeting is more than two weeks away -- and it's the opinion of many, including this writer, that the world's central banks won't wait that long to act.
 
The largest of the Big 7 shorts would certainly have knowledge of that -- and this week's antics in the precious metals and elsewhere may be their final act before this price management scheme in the precious metals in particular -- and the general commodities complex in general, dies a rather spectacular death. Of course that event presupposes that the Big 7 won't go short on the next rally in the precious metals. Ted feels that they won't -- and the collective "we" certainly hope that he's right about that.
 
Events are unfolding at a frightening speed in the real world right now, driven in part by the fear of this virus -- and it will be exponentially worse in very short order.
 
I'm as ready as I'm ever going to be for what lies ahead.
 
I urge you to be extra vigilant as each day passes -- and prepare as best you can for the inevitable day of reckoning, which is now clearly visible in any direction you care to look.
 
I'm still "all in" -- and hopefully it will be enough.
Here are two excellent essays that are worth reading. 
 
As the world is approaching the end of another failed monetary experiment, very few people are aware what lies ahead of them and therefore nobody is mentally or financially prepared for the massive shock that will hit the world.
 
Gold is now signaling to the few who follow the price of gold that there is trouble ahead. But since less than 0.5% of investors own gold, virtually no one understands this important signal. I have told our investors who are in precious metals that they shouldn't wish for the gold price to go up because when it does, we will enter a phase in history which will be extremely unpleasant. And this is exactly what will happen next.
 
Central banks have totally destroyed the global financial system by believing that they can control the world by continuously printing money and extending credit. Like all Ponzi schemes, the present one only works by doing more and more of the same. But Charles Ponzi and Bernie Madoff at least could rob new investors of their money to pay the old ones. But a Ponzi scheme has one great disadvantage compared to a central bank. Eventually the Ponzi scheme runs out of new investors and the whole scheme collapses with everybody losing everything.
 
The link to the article can be found  here .
 
 
Having traded as high as $1691 in COMEX April gold and $18.92 in March silver on Monday on near-record volume and closing not far from those levels as of the 1:30 PM EST settlements, prices sold off sharply in the always thinly-traded after-hours market. As expected, the all too common occurrence drew complaints of market rigging. To be sure, the sudden selloff was deeply suspicious, but the suspected culprits were not surprising when one examines the known data. Those long had nothing to gain by driving prices sharply lower when trading liquidity was at its lowest. The only entities that stood to gain by the sudden selloff were those most short - aka the 7 biggest short sellers.
 
At Monday's price highs, the 7 big shorts in COMEX gold and silver futures were in the hole by another one billion dollars, pushing their total combined open loss to a record $8.2 billion. The selloff that started at 2:30 PM EST and continued through Tuesday morning , allowed the big shorts to wipe out the additional billion-dollar impairment and left them at Friday's then-record $7.2 billion underwater mark. If one is looking to understand what makes gold and silver prices tick, it's wise to look at those who have the most to gain or lose. That's why I monitor the financial scoreboard of the 7 biggest shorts. (As always, I'll update the big 7's financial standing when I send this article later).
 
All derivatives positions, both long and short, are open positions that must ultimately be closed out at some point. Futures positions can be rolled over almost indefinitely, as opposed to options positions which are terminated on specific dates. Since futures positions can remain open (by roll over), both the longs and shorts must deposit additional margin money when positions move against them, thus assuring the integrity of the contract. That's another reason why I monitor the financial scoreboard of the 7 big shorts.
 
The link to the article can be found  here .
Zero Hedge
 
 
Did Kuroda and his pals step in?
 
 
 
...US Treasuries aren’t a safe-space... When it’s all said and done,  the only safe-haven left standing will be gold .
 
 
Is there gold price manipulation going on?  Absolutely. There’s no question about it.  That’s not just an opinion...
 

We went from an  'all-time high' to a 'correction' (-10% off all-time highs) within 6 trading days ... this is almost unprecedented...
 
 
"We think the Fed will cut 50bp in the meeting as a way to stem panic"


This is where those who actually understand money and the credit cycle part from the economic establishment, which   continuously demonstrates its cluelessness...
 
JPM Has Amassed the Greatest Hoard of Silver in History FOR A REASON | Andy Schectman
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