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What happened last week?
North American equity indexes rose ½% to 1% last week. They followed the same path with increases on Tuesday and Friday and losses on Wednesday and Thursday. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ reached record highs on Tuesday. Although it is 50% above its price from one year ago, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a narrow price range for the second consecutive week.
The Federal Reserve revealed its discussions from its recent interest rate increase meeting. Another rate hike has been contemplated, but its timing is uncertain. As of Sunday, CME's FedWatch tool predicted an 82% likelihood of a “hold” at the next meeting on October 28th and an 81% chance of a quarter-point (25 basis points) increase on December 9th. The European Central Bank also released its meeting minutes the expressed the concern for the inflationary pressure caused by the persistent, heightened cost of energy. Fed minutes 260916 ECB minutes
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the goods and services deficit was $105.6 Billion in August, up almost $13 Billion from July’s $92.8 Billion trade deficit. Imports jumped 4.3% and exports increased 1.4% during August. The trade deficit for goods increased to $137 Billion while the service surplus was unchanged at $31 Billion. BEA release
The Canadian merchandise trade surplus grew for the sixth consecutive month in August. Exports rose 2.5% and imports were down 2.0% to drive the surplus to $4.2 Billion up from $787 Million in July. Some of the increase is attributed to changes in the Canadian dollar since much of the trade is conducted in U.S. dollars and then converted or calculations in Canadian dollars. Nonetheless exports increased in 8 of 11 sectors including a 17% increase in refined petroleum energy products. StatsCan release
Canadian employment declined by 68,000 in September and the unemployment rate increased 0.1% to 6.5%. The decrease was split evenly between full-time and part-time employees. Losses were highest in Quebec and British Columbia, among youth and core aged women, and in educational services, health care and social assistance, and manufacturing. StatsCan Labour Force Survey
What’s ahead for this week and beyond?
In Canada, building permits, housing starts, capacity utilization, manufacturing and wholesale sales and new vehicle sales will be released.
In the U.S., existing home sales, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), Import and Export Price Indexes, leading index, retail sales, crude oil inventories, business inventories will be announced.
Globally, Japan’s industrial production, wholesale inflation, China’s CPI, PPI, imports, exports and trade balance, and the Eurozone’s industrial production, consumer inflation and trade balance will be reported.
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