Market Moment
Glen Eagle®: America’s Women-Owned Trading Desk®
04/26/2021
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Did Someone Say Taxes? Last Thursday the S&P500 dropped nearly 1% in reaction to President Biden’s tax proposal which would result in individuals earning more than $1 million paying a new capital gains tax of 39.6% (up from 20% currently). The market recovered on Friday erasing most of those losses, possibly reasoning being that history shows capital gains tax increases don't have a clear negative effect on stock market performance. The last two times the capital gains tax rose (in 1987 by 8% and 2013 by 8.8%) the stock market rose by 0.3% and 25.3% respectively over the next twelve months.
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Don’t Be a Buzzkill: Barron’s Spring Big Money Poll showed that 67% of the responding money managers are bullish regarding the performance of US stocks over the next year (up from 54% in the fall of 2020). That said, the optimism was put in check by the fact that 97% of respondents thought the stock market was fairly valued or overvalued…perhaps reflecting the fact that the S&P500 is now trading at a rich 23x forward earnings.
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Avoid the Road Rage: A recent study by Jose Maria Barrero et al. shows that the work-from-home movement could increase productivity in the US economy by around 5%. The majority of this increase is the result of time savings that come from employees no longer needing to commute as much. The study, which surveyed 30,000 US workers found that 20% of the work week will be conducted from home after the pandemic (versus just 5% pre-pandemic).
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Lumberjack-Pot: Lumber prices have skyrocketed over 300% year-over-year. Despite this extreme cost, increase home building companies such as Toll Brothers, Lennar, and Pultegroup have been able to continue increasing their profit margins as they pass the costs along to customers. Sales of newly constructed homes jumped by 27% last month reflecting strong demand in spite of higher costs, mainly due to historically low mortgage rates.
Economic Calendar
Monday: Durable goods orders (Mar), Core capital goods orders (Mar)
Tuesday: Case-Shiller home price index (Feb), CCI (Apr), Home ownership rate (Q1),
Wednesday: Trade in goods (Mar), Fed Reserve announcement, Powell press conference
Thursday: GDP (Q1), Pending home sales (Mar)
Friday: Employment cost index (Q1), Personal income (Mar), Consumer spending (Mar), Core inflation(Mar), Chicago purchasing managers index (Apr), Consumer sentiment index(Apr)
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US Futures
S&P 4169 -0.06%
DOW 33,963 +0.06%
NASDAQ 13,893.50 -0.24%
World Markets
FTSE 6929.24 -0.13%
NIKKEI 29,126.23 +0.36
Hang Seng 28,952
-0.43%
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Treasuries
3 Mo 0.03%
10YR 1.561%
30 YR 2.25%
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Currencies
Euro $1.209
Pound $1.39
Yen $107.68
Commodities
Gold 1780.3 +0.14%
WTI Crude 61.35 -1.27%
Silver 26.08
+0.04%
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Upcoming Earnings Calls
Monday - ACI, TSLA
Tuesday - UPS, CNC, SHW, GE, MMM, HAS, LLY RTX, JBLU, MDLZ, GOOGL, FEYE, TXN, V, AMD, PINS, SBUX, MSFT, AMGN, COF, CROX
Wednesday - HUM, CME, SIRI, WING, BSX, SIX, BA, YUM, MCO, DISCA, AAPL, FB, EBAY, ALGN, F, ORLY, QCOM, MGM, NOW, TDOC, GRUB
Thursday - CAT, ICE, BMY, CMCSA, MRK, PCG, BLMN, TAP, KDP, TREE, OSTK, MO, KHC, MCD, MA, DPZ, TROW, RCL, SPGI, SWI, AMZN, TWTR, SWKS, GILD
Friday - CL, CHTR, CLX, ABBV, CVX, XOM, GT
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Consider working with Glen Eagle as one of your preferred partner trading desks
Client Focused Trading for large institutions, pensions, hedge funds, wealthy families, and private equity for over 30 years
Ansie Monaghan
Carol Ann Fernandez
Glen Eagle
4422C Route 27
PO Box 399
Kingston, NJ 08528
(609) 631-8231
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