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Rich Nelson Breaks Down Neutral Wheat Balances, Corn Demand Risks, and Cattle Trade Dynamics

Farm Director KC Sheperd sat down with Allendale’s Rich Nelson to break down the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the USDA. While crop markets often brace for sharp surprises, Nelson characterized this month’s updates as largely routine, offering critical perspectives across wheat, row crops, cotton, and livestock.

Nelson led the discussion by examining the wheat balance sheet, noting that the USDA held domestic figures steady. “As normal for this report, no changes or adjustments for U.S. wheat production, and that will also be the same on the December report,” Nelson said, noting that any minor revisions will likely wait until the January annual summary.

Export demand for U.S. wheat also saw no adjustments from the agency. “You can say that we’ve been running a clear deficit for quite a few weeks,” Nelson explained.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its November Crop Production report, updating forecasts for major U.S. crops following a review of acreage and conditions as of November 1. 

Weather impacts related to a strong El Niño further amplified during October, as a swath of wetness covered most areas west of a line from central Texas to Lake Superior, excluding northern California and the Pacific Northwest.

The 2026 area harvested for corn for grain is forecast at 88.5 million acres, unchanged from the previous estimate but down 3 percent from last year. All cotton production is forecast at 13.2 million 480-pound bales, down 2 percent from the previous forecast and down 5 percent from 2025. Soybean production is forecast at a record 4.57 billion bushels, up less than 1 percent from the previous estimate and up 7 percent from last year.

U.S. beef export demand remains strong through the first three quarters of 2026, even as export volumes face pressure from tighter supplies and market volatility.

Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation, spoke with Senior Farm and Ranch Broadcaster Ron Hays after a presentation he made to the Oklahoma Beef Council about beef export performance, growing international demand for high-quality U.S. beef and expectations for the final quarter of the year.

“Despite all the volatility, demand remains very, very strong,” Halstrom said. “For the year we’re down slightly on volume, but for the year we are even with a year ago on value.” Halstrom pointed to several international markets helping support U.S. beef export value. 

Ben Hale: Oklahoma Cattle Market Sees Stronger Calf Prices as Wheat Pasture Demand Picks Up

Hale said cattle numbers were about even with a year ago, but calf prices were significantly higher during the latest sale. Hale said he was surprised by how strong the market was, especially given the recent pressure on the feeder cattle board.

“I didn’t expect it to be that much higher, and it started out yesterday morning on fire, and it just grew as the day went on,” Hale said. He added that feeder steers were particularly strong, while feeder heifers saw less activity.

Hale said the stronger calf market is being supported by improved wheat pasture conditions across a large area of the Southern Plains. With favorable weather expected over the next couple of weeks and much of the wheat already planted and emerged, buyers are beginning to secure calves. 

The Sirloin Club of Oklahoma has joined the agricultural community in celebrating Oklahoma Secretary of Agriculture Blayne Arthur and Jerry Renshaw, OYE Agricultural Mechanics Superintendent and former agricultural education instructor, on their selection as the 2027 Oklahoma Youth Expo Show Honorees.

Known across the state and nation as “The Greatest Show,” the Oklahoma Youth Expo relies on dedicated industry champions whose leadership opens doors for young agriculturalists.

Both Secretary Arthur and Renshaw have demonstrated steadfast commitment to OYE and its expanding programs, providing countless opportunities for Oklahoma youth to develop skills, showcase their projects, and succeed inside and outside the show ring. 

This summer, Jamie Glover of Glover Cattle Company, a prominent agricultural leader, joined a cohort of 40 Farm Credit customers, employees and directors for the Advancing Women in Agriculture through Resilience & Distinction (AWARD) program — a leadership development experience held on the historic grounds of Gettysburg and launched in honor of the International Year of the Woman Farmer.

Blending historical lessons in decision-making, legacy-building and resilience with modern leadership strategies, AWARD equips participants to return to their communities and operations with renewed purpose and power.

Participants spent Sept. 1 through Sept. 3 strengthening leadership skills, learning from one another, and celebrating the role of the woman in American agriculture, all at the Gettysburg battlefield — a fitting place to reflect on courage and influence in times of change.

 The National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG) brought together grower leaders from across the country last week in Albuquerque, New Mexico, for its annual fall meeting, jointly hosted with U.S. Wheat Associates.

The meeting featured committee discussions, opportunities for collaboration, and leadership and professional development programming for growers interested in becoming more engaged in agricultural policy and advocacy.

A key outcome of the meeting was establishing NAWG’s policy priorities, which will guide the organization in the lame duck session of Congress and beyond.

In a recent Cow-Calf Corner article, Mark Johnson writes: One of the most economically significant decisions we make in a cow-calf operation is that of which heifers we select to develop as replacements. Replacement heifer selection and breeding decisions are challenging and impactful.

The development of replacement heifers comes at a cost of both time and money. Replacement heifers selected this fall (from our spring born calves) are 24 months from returning on this investment.

The current value at which heifers could be marketed now is lost for the opportunity to be developed as a cow. The next two years to properly develop, grow, breed, calve-out and get the heifer to promptly breed back will require additional feedstuffs, prudent nutritional decisions and labor.

Checking the Markets...

With the support of traders ---- the live cattle complex was granted another fantastic day as the market closed $2 to $3 higher.  December live cattle closed $3 higher at $219.20, February live cattle closed $2.47 higher at $222.57 and April live cattle closed $2.22 higher at $225.12. 

Boxed beef prices closed mixed: choice up $0.24 ($362.98) and select down $2.11 ($351.62) with a movement of 111 loads.

With the added support of seeing the live cattle contracts trade higher, the feeder cattle complex was also able to rally $2 to $4 higher through Tuesday's close. November feeders closed $2 higher at $330.35, January feeders closed $2.50 higher at $326.67 and March feeders closed $3.15 higher at $323.35. 

Click here for our Markets Page on OklahomaFarmReport.Com- there you will find our latest reports on cattle auctions, boxed beef, cash grains and market analysis.

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