May 21, 2020
The Miles Franklin Newsletter
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From The Desk Of David Schectman
Here are some words of wisdom:
It’s not a crisis until it becomes a crisis.
 
This is the best time to buy silver in the last 5000 years
 
Tomorrow is not promised. Enjoy the moment.
David's Commentary (In Blue):

Before I get into today’s daily, I am going to share an Email exchange I had today with my old friend Backwoods Jack. You long-time readers remember Backwoods. I used to write about him a lot a half a dozen years ago. Backwoods rode gold all the way up from $300 to $1,900 and then all the way down to under $1,100 before he sold it all. He went from being a badge carrying “Goldbug” to a disillusioned non-believer and a Wall Street cheerleader. 
 
He had noticed that gold had moved up toward $1,800 and his comment had to do with the fact that his last purchase was in 2012 at $1,600. He said, “Whoopi do! Gold rose to $1,800. Only took eight years from $1,600.”  That is what is commonly referred to as a “left-handed compliment.”
 
I politely replied as follows:
 
Regarding your 18 from 16 comment. You can say that. It is absolutely true.
 
I choose to look at it differently.
 
Here is my take
Gold fell from $1900 to $1050 in the fall of 2015. In the last five years, the trend has been a strong rise back up. You can see that clearly. The question really is: how high will it go and how long will it take.
 
The trend is strong and obvious. You know how exciting a bull market can be. You rode it up from 2002 to 2011 from $300 to $1900. That took nine years. We are five years into the second unplug and the gains are of the same order that you witnessed before. There is no guaranty that this will continue. But I believe it will continue. 
 
I have put a lot of my hard-earned dollars into gold and silver in the last two years (in addition to what I already had). So far I have been rewarded. Gold is UP $470 IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS. Silver is up by 33% since March. 
 
Based on the total collapse of the economy (that is not subjective) and the Federal Reserve’s response, to create trillions of dollars (that is not subjective) that has taken place in the last three months, the odds of the trends continuing are very strong. 
 
Simply put, from one who has spent 35 years in the industry, there has never been a stronger set of circumstances to launch a bull market in precious metals. 
 
I will never again try and convince you to believe in or buy any precious metal. You can think, see and follow the markets. The results will speak for themselves.  
 
Just remember, the financial markets, all of them including stocks and precious metals, move up and down in cycles. 
 
There is ample evidence that the precious metals cycle has reversed again, from up (you were involved) to down (you were involved) and now back to up again (you are not involved). 
 
The graph, shown above, is a  five-year window . That is long enough to be able to Identify it a  TREND.   Gold “trends” over long periods of time, measured in years. It took 9 years on the way up (2002-2011) and 4 years on the way down (2012-2015) and now it’s trending up for the last 5 years and gaining momentum on the way back up. Also, as you can see in the graph, it took just two years (2020-2012) for gold to explode up from $1200 to $1900. The end of the cycle is when the growth goes exponential. 
 
We are early in the awakening of a second bull market in gold and silver in this century, and if it continues, the next few years will be spectacular. I believe that it will. I have put a lot of my money where my mouth is, and will continue to add to my positions for the rest of the year and beyond.
 
This is not a pissing contest. You and I have opposite opinions on many subjects. You are entitled to feel as you do. 
 
I will remain silent from now on, because the headlines tell it all every day. From the Coronavirus to the economy, the world is vastly different today than it was just three months ago. I miss going to restaurants and the health club and watching sports but at least I have a thriving business in the midst of 50,000,000 newly unemployed. I do not take it for granted. I count my blessings.
 
Thank God I don’t sell commercial real estate or own a restaurant or travel agency or car leasing business or cruise line. It is a new world and the outcome is unknown but not looking very good. 
 
You cannot grow an economy by printing money - because if it was that easy the Fed would send all of us a check for half a million bucks and no one would have to work. Printing money and going deeper into debt, when the debt is what caused the recent collapse in the first place, is not a solution. At this point, I honestly don’t know if there is a solution. I’ll be optimistic and hope so.
 
Our mutual friend Jim (who also owns a precious metal company) has been hanging on by his fingernails for years and years but finally, the wait has paid off. As he says, “I have strong fingernails.” Yes, Jim is doing well - everyone in the industry is doing well. It’s a tough cyclical business but when it’s good, it’s really good.
 
Sincerely,
 
David
 
 
N ews Flash: The economy is fine, our problems are solved, the stock market is going up again.
 
Personally, I think the Fed should ramp up their stock buying and purchase all the Dow stocks. DOW 40,000 would solve all our problems – at least that’s what most Americans believe. Just ignore the fact that half of the businesses that shut down due to the virus will not re-open. Ignore the fact that a large number of the 50,000,000 people who lost their jobs will not have a job to return to. In fact, it is projected that 42% of the job losses will be permanent. More than 100,000 businesses have already shut down and will never come back. That’s just the beginning. 42% of jobs losses will be permanent. Ignore the fact that retail is in shambles and retail is responsible for 70% of GDP. 
 
Anyone who buys the narrative that all is well because the stock market is rising is hopelessly lost in a fog of unjustified optimism. Anyone who honestly believes the stock market can hold its current value in an economy that is collapsing needs help.
 
The recent rise in the stock market is typical of the rebound from a big fall – usually around 40% - just prior to a second and bigger drop. Hold onto your hat. The next leg down will be bigger than the last one and it will leave many people is a state of shock. That’s what reality can do to you.
 
News Flash: Printing endless amounts of money to bail everyone and everything out has no consequences. 
 
Look at the stock market. Trillions spent and no inflation. It’s working, right? But, if that’s the case, why do we have to pay taxes? The Fed can transfer the money to the Treasury. Come to think of it, that’s what they are doing. They are monetizing the bonds now and sending hundreds of billions to the Treasury. So, send more and let’s forget about taxes. That’s my suggestion. And then, the Fed can send everyone a check for $50,000 - twice a year. No one will have to go back to work. The stock market will soar. Or....maybe there are consequences? Did you know that the stock market is SOARING in Venezuela? The trouble is, the currency it is denominated in is worth very little. With the Fed’s current policy of unlimited money creation chances are the same will hold true in our stock market as well. The real measurement is not how many dollars are your stocks worth, it’s how much gold will those dollars buy? Gold is money, real money and the Gold/Dow ratio is falling even as the Dow is rising. In other words, it takes less gold to buy the Dow. 
Peter Schiff gets it. Sure, stocks may go up but the dollar will be destroyed in the process. 
 
"...people think that’s good for the market but it’s not.  It’s a disaster for the economy. It will destroy the value of the dollar.  And sure, that means  stocks will go up, but so what, if you’re pricing them in worthless currency? "
News Flash: Debt doesn’t matter. Everyone gets a free lunch.
 
 
I have stated that the Covid-19 did not cause the crash in the economy, or the rise in gold and silver. It popped the debt bubble. That speeded the process up. And if the virus has started to mutate, and some believe that is the case, then any chance of a vaccine is remote. And if we have to live with this curse, then the worst economy since the Great Depression will be with us for a long, long time.
 
Doctors are documenting notable differences in the timing of symptom onset and severity...
Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease. Millions of unemployed workers are not going back to work because they can make more by staying at home. Brilliant!
Can anyone explain  how we are going to motivate unemployed workers to go back to work when most of them can actually make more money  camped on their sofas watching Netflix ? 
Stock investors are giddy because their stocks are rising. So is gold and silver, or haven’t you been paying attention? Gold has already recovered all of its March losses. The stock market has not.
While stocks continue to tread water, precious metals have begun exploding higher. Gold has already recouped ALL of its March losses. The precious metal has just broken out of a wedge formation to test overhead resistance at $1,775.
Silver is now playing catch up. The silver to gold ratio has reclaimed its trading channel as silver begins to DRAMATICALLY outperform gold. This trend will likely continue for the coming weeks.
Silver miners are performing even better than silver. The silver miner to silver ratio has broken its downtrend (blue lines) as well as its consolidation phase (red lines).  This is EXTREMELY bullish for this sector.
So, to recap, stocks are in a consolidation phase. Meanwhile precious metals are exploding higher. Gold is outperforming stocks, silver is outperforming gold, and silver miners are outperforming silver.
I spend hours every day scouring the Internet and YouTube for worthwhile information. There are a lot of excellent sites but there are several that I relate to especially well. My views are virtually identical to those of Mike Maloney and Egon von Greyerz. They really get it. Both of them have been writing for around 20 years. I have been writing the same things they write, but since 1985. Does that mean I figured it out before they did? No, it just means I have been wrong (early) longer than they have. My best friend calls me “Chicken Little.” I can’t argue about that. But guess what? Mr. Little was right. The sky IS FALLING. All three of us have been doing it for a long, long time and urging you to take cover - this will not end well. Unfortunately, we were right. By any metric, the world hasn’t been in this bad shape since the 1930s. This time it will be worse. Could I (all three of us) be wrong? You better hope so. But hope won’t pay your mortgage or buy food for the table. Gold and silver will.
Egon von Greyerz
 
THE GLOBAL FOREST FIRE IS HERE  
It drives you absolutely mad to see a whole world living a lie. How can anyone believe that the fake world the Fed and their fellow central bankers have created has anything to do with reality. We have fake money, fake markets, fake companies, fake banks, fake interest rates, fake income, fake pensions, fake social security, fake wealth, fake bail outs, fake buildings, fake holidays, fake cars etc. which create false lives for most of us especially in the West. All these fake material values have also created false moral and ethical values. 
So, you might ask how can it all be fake when we can touch it, use it, or experience it. For people who don’t understand that it is all fake, let me say that we will all soon realize how fake it was. Because many of these things that we perceived as real were all an illusion. 
An illusion is defined as  “an act of deception” or “something that produces a false or misleading idea of reality.   And that is exactly what we have been exposed to. The world had been deceived but we have all believed that it was real. 

DEEP STATE WILL LOSE CONTROL

There is a perception in the world that things will continue as they are and that the Deep State is going to control us all in a totalitarian world. What few realize is that the Deep State or Powers That Be are going to lose control totally. They are totally dependent on the world in which they can control everything through debt and the fake monetary system they have created. But let me make it clear that this fake system is about to implode.

$QUADRILLIONS WILL GO UP IN SMOKE 
Before the crisis which has just started is over, global debt, derivatives and unfunded liabilities (Medicare, pensions) will virtually all disappear. We are looking at sums in the quadrillions of dollars. How much depends on how much extra debt is created before it all implodes. As the debt goes to zero, most of the assets that were financed by the debt will also lose 90-100% of their real value. This is when the world will discover that all these things we thought had a real worth are actually worthless. 

In this scenario, the ones in control of the money will have lost their power since the printing press has stopped functioning, and money has died.  Also, after the collapse of the present monetary system, leverage will disappear and any financial institution will only lend what they have in actual deposits as was the case when banking started 4000 years ago. 

This dystopian system is difficult for most of us to imagine since it would lead to a very different world. It is possible that instead of the whole system coming down in one fell swoop that it happens in stages over an extended period. But I fear that things could go very quickly. What is clear is that the world is now starting a secular decline that’s never been seen before and this on a global basis. The first stage of this decline has now begun and will be totally devastating for the world. However incredible this scenario appears; it is the only possible outcome. 

NOTHING WILL BE THE SAME

The falsity of the current system will soon become apparent. Let’s take some obvious examples of what this false or misleading idea of reality means.

  1. Jobs – the unemployment rates we are now seeing of 15-39% depending on how you measure, will become permanent. Many employed and self-employed will not get their job back. The government has no money to pay these people. Printed money is an illusion and has zero value. Take the UK where now 50% of the adults are being paid by the government in subsidies, unemployment benefits, state employees, and state pensioners. That situation can of course never last. Paying non-productive people with worthless money does not create a sustainable society. 
  2. Pensions – Pension funds will not survive. They have three principal asset classes – Stocks, Bonds, and Property. All three will lose most of their value in real terms. All unfunded pension schemes will remain unfunded since there will be no money to pay the pensioners. 
  3. Airlines – Many airlines will go under. Any remaining ones will be extremely costly to operate leading to fares increasing substantially. Fewer people will fly due to high costs. Business travel will go down significantly both for cost reasons and because people have recently discovered that meetings and conferences can be conducted on Zoom or Skype.
  4. Hotels, Tourism – Tourism will decline dramatically due to high unemployment and high costs. Mass tourism will totally die. The conference business which is a vital income for hotels will also dwindle. Much of it will become Video conferencing. Most of the luxury hotel market will die. 
  5. Offices – Big offices in city centers will disappear. The world has discovered, during the Corona quarantine, that working from home is extremely efficient and convenient. It is also better for family life. Big offices will disappear, instead there will be small offices which don’t have to be in city centers. So, there will be less commuting, less pollution and a better quality of life. 
  6. Big Cities – The need for big cites will diminish dramatically. As people work from home or small regional offices, big cites will shrink and many will become ghost towns. Retail in big cities will die.
  7. Big Companies – Many will be broken up. Globalism with big dominant global businesses will disappear. Countries will become more self-sufficient with most production becoming domestic. 
  8. Banking & Finance – Most big banks will disappear as the financial system implodes. Without massive debt, derivatives and leverage, banks will go back to where they started – financing trade, commerce, and industry. There will be no investment banks or proprietary trading. Central banks will disappear or have a very much diminished role. There will be virtually no money printing. There will be no manipulation of money or interest rates. Market swings will be based on supply and demand and not central bank interference. I do realize that some of this sounds like wishful thinking. But it is a natural reaction to the current false and diseased financial system. 
  9. Hedge Funds & Private Equity – These players will disappear as they are totally dependent on massive leverage and debt. They have no place in a system based on sound money. Most hedge funds will go under in the coming collapse as counterparties fail and derivatives become worthless. Private equity has destroyed many good companies by lumbering them with heavy debt and taking all the equity out.

The list above could be much longer but this is just a taste of all the changes that will take place over the next few years and decades. It will clearly be a gradual process but the first stages could happen quickly if a major part of the financial system doesn’t survive the imminent shocks.

THE WORLD NEEDS A FOREST FIRE 
The transition from a world based on the golden calf and false values will be devastating. But there is no other way to end an era based on fake money and fallacious premises. The world could never continue to grow and prosper with a mountain of debt and liabilities that can never be repaid or even serviced. We need a proper forest fire that burns it all down to the ground and prepares the way for a sounder world with new green shoots. 

Going from a sick system to a soundly based system will clearly involve a lot of suffering. But this is the punishment that the world must go through. Many will suffer and many will die prematurely as a result of poverty, famine, disease, and wars. The scale of this devastation will be multiples of the Coronavirus. 

THIS TOO SHALL PASS

The world economy has always gone in cycles.  If the laws of nature and supply and demand were allowed to determine the length and amplitude of the cycles, they wouldn’t reach the extremes we are now experiencing. But when mankind interferes in the shape of governments and central banks, these cycles reach extremes which can have disastrous consequences as the world will soon encounter.
 
But remember that “ This too shall pass”  and when the world comes out on the other side, it will be a better world. Many things will improve, like family values as well as moral and ethical values. A close group of family and friends will be essential during the coming hard times. And remember that so many things in life are free like friendship, discussions, nature, music, and books. Buying gadgets and traveling to the other side of the world only give us ephemeral joy. 

MARKETS
Stocks

Stocks will soon give the world another shock. We saw the all-time bubble top in the Dow on February 12 th,  followed by a 38% fall of over 11,000 points. The investment world is assuming we will have a V or U recovery. Sadly, it will be neither. Instead another major fall is around the corner. It is likely to be greater than the first one before it pauses. What is clear is that  stocks, like the economy, have started a secular downtrend which will be devastating. The fall will not stop until stocks are down more than 95% in real terms.

Metals

As I have been writing and  tweeting  about lately, the world is starting to discover that paper money cannot survive when central banks are printing it to death. Gold and silver have for the last twenty years told us this. We are now getting the signal that the uptrend in the metals will accelerate rapidly. 

If you want your savings to survive the coming crisis, hold physical gold and some silver. Don’t store it in a banking system that is unlikely to survive. Silver is leading the current surge in the metals which is a good sign since silver is the leading indicator for big moves in the metals. Silver will move up many times faster than gold but remember that it is extremely volatile. So, if you want to sleep well at night, hold more gold than silver. 

Forget about what price the metals will reach. Even in today’s money, whatever figure you think of will not be enough .  And in hyperinflationary money, the price move will be exponential measured in worthless paper money. So, don’t think about the value of gold and silver in dollars or euros. Just remember that gold is the only money that has survived in history. It is therefore the best form of wealth preservation and insurance against a bankrupt financial system.
Egon von Greyerz

SPIKING FOOD PRICES, KICK OFF INFLATIONARY ENDGAME
Egon von Greyerz interviewed by Jan Kneist of Goldseiten. 

The ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court sets Germany against the EU. A planned crash? Southern Europe cannot exist without tourism. But the bang will probably come from the US, which despite huge QE programs is plunging into a depression that will make the 1930s seem small. Almost 40% unemployment, while at the same time food prices are rising. Globally, up to 1.6 billion people could become unemployed, affecting developing countries in particular. Society changing events are looming. Inflation adjusted gold price $18,100. Silver move will be spectacular.

  • BVG ruling – Deathblow for the Euro or planned?
  • Weak countries have no chance in the Euro
  • EU – a huge scam that worked for a while
  • Club Med hangs on tourism
  • ECB balance sheet grows strongly. Even without the Bundesbank?
  • FED balance sheet grows from $4.1 trillion to $6.7 trillion in one month
  • CPI -0.8%, many prices fall, essential goods become more expensive
  • Official US unemployment 14.7%
  • Wrong, without calculation errors even 19%
  • Unemployment according to ShadowStats 35% or 39%
  • Unemployment in the Great Depression was 25%
  • Food becomes expensive, in the USA especially meat
  • Food shortages will increase
  • Soon 1.6 billion unemployed worldwide?
  • 10 million applications for short-time work in Germany
  • In the UK, 50% of adults depend on government payments
  • The world is a Potemkin village
  • FED of Atlanta expects 35% GDP collapse
  • The effect of the Fiat money dwindles more and more
  • Adjusted gold price 1980 at 18,100 dollars
  • Whosoever hath no gold today will suffer great loss
  • Physical bullion is partly available again, premiums remain high
  • Unimaginable events become conceivable
  • C19 is unmasked as a controlled action and causes more and more unrest
  • Material – Fiat Money – values perish
  • Think of silver


Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
SRSrocco

Two Months Of New Currency In Circulation Could Buy A Stunning Amount Of Silver & Gold

The Federal Reserve issued a RECORD amount of new Currency in Circulation over the past two months. While the financial media has focused on the massive amount of additional “Digital” money printing, the Fed also introduced more new DOLLAR BILLS into the market from March to May than it did all last year.

According to the St. Louis Fed, Currency in Circulation increased a staggering $122 billion from March to May.  If we look at the chart below, we can see that the annual increase in U.S. Currency in Circulation ranged between $80 to $100 billion per year. However, the Federal Reserve increased the total Currency in Circulation by $122 billion from March to May:
That’s one heck of a lot of new FEDERAL RESERVE NOTES to be issued in just 1/6th of a year. So, how much gold and silver production could this new Currency in Circulation buy? Well, it turns out to be an astonishing amount of silver, nearly a decade’s worth of global silver production.
To arrive at the figures above, I divided $122 billion by $16 for silver and $1,600 for gold. Now, these aren’t the current prices, but an approximate average for the year. The world produces about 800 million oz of silver (2020 World Silver Survey) and 111 million oz of gold (World Gold Council).

Thus, the $122 billion of new U.S. Currency in Circulation would equal the value of nine years of global silver mine supply and nine months’ worth of gold production . And, this is just the increase in physical Federal Reserve Notes, mostly $100 bills.

According to the Federal Reserve’s most recent chart, of the total $1.67 trillion of Currency in Circulation at the end of December 2018, $100 bills accounted for 80% of the total:
However, in less than a year and a half, total U.S. Currency in Circulation is now $1.92 trillion, up from $1.67 trillion on Dec 31st, 2018. And, nearly half of that $250 billion increase took place in the past two months… LOL.
If your eyes are working correctly, you will notice the TREND LINE is virtually heading STRAIGHT UP.  So, do you think this will have a positive impact on the precious metals? I believe we are just beginning to see the coming PRICE EXPLOSION in Gold and Silver.
I want to talk about another huge problem that is facing us. In the following graph, note that the number of people who are retiring each year is at a peak. And the unfortunate truth is that most of them will not have enough money to keep a roof over their head and pay for their food and utilities. And that does not even factor in the inflation that will is coming that will exacerbate the problem. Most Americans are counting on Social Security and pension plans to pay their bills. The trouble is, both are on the verge of bankruptcy. The safety nets have big holes in them. I guess that means those who have managed to set money aside, and they are in the vast minority, will have to “support” the rest via much higher taxes. 
On further thought, I should have added Mike Savage to Egon von Greyerz and Mike Maloney as people whose writing I admire. I think he is more of a Johnny Come Lately, but he absolutely gets it. 
Mike Savage
Headlines and Reality

Some headlines and thoughts which show where we are currently at:
“US Industrial Production Plunges By Most In Over 100 Years”- Zerohedge
Don’t forget it was plunging for 2 years prior to any virus- this just greased the slide!
“Will Get Worse”-Virus Pushes Germany Into Recession” -Zerohedge
Yes- blame it all on the virus. Forget that Germany was having MAJOR problems economically long before COVID 19 was ever heard of.

“US Retail Sales Crash By Most Ever In April, Cars and Clothing Clobbered” Zerohedge
What a surprise! If people don’t go anywhere and have no income they stop buying stuff!
“Companies Call The Market Top With Most Stock Sales In Eight Years” – Zerohedge
Actually, even though I believe this is an ominous sign because who knows better what the future appears to hold than those who are running the companies? Certainly, those folks running for the hills would normally be a LARGE sign that trouble is ahead. However, as long as the central banks are buying virtually everything and propping stocks, bonds and real estate anything could happen. Don’t you think near 50% unemployment (my article yesterday BLS, Wolf Street), a closed down economy and no end in sight wouldn’t have collapsed the “markets” already? I believe the central banks will take this as far as it can and it will ultimately collapse under its own weight- but who knows when? Any traditional metrics can be tossed aside.

As usual, the answer is more debt to solve the problem of too much debt. Again, as usual, it will be Main Street paying and bailing out the corrupt bankers for a third time in 20 years. You would think that the population would have enough of an attention span to see what is happening but, aside from a small percentage of astute people, I see very little evidence that many really get what is going on.

It appears that most are sucked into the idea that you have to be with one side or the other. This is, I believe, done on purpose by those in charge to cover up the true story- the bankrupting of America.

It is ok to talk about anything else- just not that!

Keep the attention focused on hating each other and baffle the masses with BS stories that mean nothing in the scheme of things (look up project Mockingbird) while the looting of America is almost complete.

Cities and states that can’t conjure up money out of nowhere are now at the mercy of the Fed. They will either need to be bailed out (I believe they will be bought out- far worse!) or slash spending, services and pensions. Most states by law cannot go bankrupt- even though many are in reality. Buckle up!

It is obvious how destitute the lower earners have become. Prior to this outbreak it was reported that over 40% of Americans couldn’t come up with $400.00 for an emergency without more debt or selling an asset. This means ANY interruption of income or unforeseen bills could be catastrophic for those in this position. What do you think is happening NOW? Many are already counting on handouts and “money” conjured up from nowhere to survive for today. I also have read that people earning up to $200,000.00 per year who were living right up to their means are in a similar position.

With all of the cheerleaders telling people it’s time to buy let’s look at a few icons who are weighing in.

While Warren Buffett hasn’t said much his actions speak FAR louder than words.

RECORD AMOUNT OF CASH. Doesn’t see anything compelling to buy. That’s a sign!

Major hedge fund managers like Ray Dalio, David Tepper and many more are calling this the worst risk-reward they have ever seen.

The markets, while down from the highs, are still the most overvalued they have ever been.

Keep this in mind. The Fed and other central banks are ACTIVELY keeping gold suppressed and paper assets propped up. One day it will not work anymore. In the meantime, here are the YTD results even with all of the interference:
My opinion is that these numbers will diverge wildly when the “printing” fails to work.
Be Prepared!
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About Miles Franklin

Miles Franklin was founded in January, 1990 by David MILES Schectman. David's son, Andy Schectman, our CEO, joined Miles Franklin in 1991. Miles Franklin's primary focus from 1990 through 1998 was the Swiss Annuity and we were one of the two top firms in the industry. In November, 2000, we decided to de-emphasize our focus on off-shore investing and moved primarily into gold and silver, which we felt were about to enter into a long-term bull market cycle. Our timing and our new direction proved to be the right thing to do.

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