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Good Friday morning,
Yesterday we had a breakout of balance, and while a lot of people were thinking the next move was lower, the bulls said nope and came in and took markets to highs, not seen since the beginning of March! The S&P is up almost 24% since the April 7th lows. Also, the upper targets listed yesterday were absolute money! Please re-read what we said....
"Now, if the lower target area and overnight lows hold, and price can move back into the prior day's range above 5890, then above 5896, look for upper targets! IF price can move back over 5896, first stop is the POC, overnight high and half-back at 5908, then VAH at 5914 then prior highs and upper targets at 5930-5940."
Yesterday's high was 5944.50!
In the profile pic and key levels below, you can see that price is now gapping up and over prior day's range, as yesterday confirmed bulls are still in control. Price broke out above the two day balance we highlighted, and repaired the poor high from Tuesday. Any price action that remains over 5944.50 tells us buyers are still firmly in control.
Today is the monthly options expiration, so there could be quite a bit of responsive trade and balance today. Overnight inventory is mixed to net long but not 100%. With another extended move higher, we could see a liquidation break at some point this morning, and as we are writing this we are seeing the liquidation break occur. Watch for a look above and fail at the overnight high, which currently sits at 5958, or a break below the first one minute bar. The target is the gap fill to prior day high and VAH (Value Area High) at 5944.50.
If sellers stay strong with their operations and we lose 5944.50 to the downside, then the next target is 5927.50, then 1/2 back and VAL (Value Area Low) and then lower targets!
Futures are currently trading at 5946 as of this writing.
VPOC Update: Once again, no new VPOC's were added or taken out yesterday. We still have 5 above and 20 below. Closest one above is 6006 and below 5854.50.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5980 - 5990
Key Levels: 5944.50 Prior high and VAH then 5927.50 POC
downside target is: 5910 - 5900
/NQ upside target is: 21,500 - 21,540
Key Level: 21,455 VAH then 21,395 POC
downside target is : 21,300 - 21,270
/RTY upside target is: 2120 - 2130
downside target is: 2080 - 2070
Economic Data:
Housing Starts and Building Permits @ 8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices @ 8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
More Color By : Rich Rickus
Back at it next week.
Have a great day and an excellent weekend!
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