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Happy Q4 to you all. The Final Stretch for 2025. For the first eight months, we saw a surprisingly healthy pace of hiring by industrial companies. Our best 8 months in our 9 years as Holden Richardson. The surprise for us was that this hiring continued without clarity into how tariffs were going to impact the costs for raw materials, sourced components, and finished goods, including completed vehicles. This hiring was going to end; we just expected it to end sooner.
Then came Labor Day and corporate America collectively hit the brakes. Hiring has slowed. We see it, the big search firms feel it, and available jobs data [data not affected by the government shutdown] validates it. We also hear on the street that orders are declining, budgets are being revised, spending on capital and people is on hold, and plants are being selectively shut-down to align production with demand. A few bright spots - private equity investment in the supply base remains active, as OEMs and Tier-1s continue to divest non-core assets; the aftermarket parts distribution space continues to attract investment; and we are seeing consistent demand in supply chain management leadership - purchasing, sourcing, and inventory management - at a time when tariff uncertainty and supply chain strategy are under intense scrutiny.
We expect this trend to last throughout the balance of Q4, best case. There will be roles that must be filled, so our mid-level FLIGHT solution will continue to see demand in essential plant operations. But, at the senior levels, we expect the market will remain soft. We’d love to be wrong.
We're here to help if we can.
Brad & Alex
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