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Good Tuesday morning,
So it turns out I was right, but just a few days early… the bears were stalking us, and the attack was fierce yesterday; however, buyers came right back in the overnight session to take prices back up, so the jury is out on whether the attack continues. Do we get more downside today, or do the bulls take us back into Thursday's range (over 6,293 is key) and make another run at the all-time highs?
Honestly, it's a tough call, so we must stay fluid today and over the next few days. As I mentioned before, the market was up almost 9% from the May 23 lows, so we are due for some corrective activity—but there doesn't seem to be any panic or follow-through to the downside yet!
Also, we stopped one-time framing, which means we finally broke below a prior day's low, and that was a loss of the 6,293 level! That opened the door to downside targets yesterday and there were great opportunities to the short side, however, one day does not make a trend.
In the profile pic and key levels below, futures have recovered from a pullback yesterday and price is currently trading just over half-back which is at 6,278, so this is the first key level for today. A loss of that level would most likely take us to the POC (Point of Control) at 6,269.50, and any further drop below the POC would have us looking for lower targets at 6,250-6,240. Yesterday, the key levels worked like a charm as it showed sellers overwhelmed the buyers and downside targets were hit! Will it happen again today? Time will tell so pay attention to the key levels.
Now, if buyers keep price above 6,278, then any break over the overnight high and VAH (Value Area High) at 6289 would then have me looking for upper targets at 6,300-6,310. Any move over that range would bring in short covering and a potential move to the new VPOC at 6,324!
We have both scenarios—so let’s see what the market does, not what we are hoping it does.
Futures are currently trading at 6,282 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Another new VPOC was added on Monday, but this time above price at 6,324! Also, the downside VPOC near our target range was taken out at 6,275.25. So, we now have one above at 6,324 and three below: 6,146, 6,019 and 6,050.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6,300 - 6,310 then 6,324
Key Levels: 6,278 1/2 back then 6,269.50 POC
downside target is: 6,250 - 6,240
/NQ upside target is: 23,000 - 23,025
Key Level: 22,879 1/2 Back then 22,870
downside target is : 22,825 - 22,800 then 22,775
/RTY upside target is: 2,250 - 2,255
downside target is: 2,225 - 2,220
Economic Data :
Consumer Credit @ 3:00 PM EST
More Color By : Rich Rickus
- ES - Key Demand $6140 -6150 then below at $5960 with Supply above at $6170-80
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $6140 looking to play a break and retest above $6150 long targeting $6172 then $6180
Bearish Buyers trapped below $6100 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5995 targeting $5958 then a break down into $5920’s
SPY Key demand at $606 then at $603-604 with Supply above at $610-612
Bullish Sellers trapped above $606 looking to play a break and retest from $607 long targeting $609 then a breakout into high $611 new HOD
Bearish Buyers trapped below $605 after a break and retest below $604 targeting $603 then a breakdown into $601
/NQ Key demand at $22200 then at $21500 with Supply above at $22380-22400
Bullish Sellers trapped above $22200 looking to play a break and retest above $22010w long targeting $22300 then a breakout back into low $22400
Bearish Buyers trapped below $21550 looking to play short from below $21500 targeting $21400 then $21200s
QQQ Key Demand at $540 then $535-536 with Supply at $544
Bullish Sellers trapped above $539 looking to play a break and retest from $540 targeting $542 then a breakout into high $543
Bearish Buyers trapped below $539 looking to play a break and retest below $538 targeting $535 then $533
Have a great day!
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