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Famed political columnist Dan Walters kicked off his talk to asphalt industry leaders last week by responding to a provocative question: Who predicted Xavier Becerra would be the top vote-getter in the California primary election for governor earlier this month? His frank reply: "Nobody."
That level of candor marked CalAPA's 3rd annual "Summit at the Summit" Executive Leadership Forum at Lake Tahoe, where a diverse group of speakers June 24-25 provided rich and diverse opinions for leaders navigating a dynamic time for the asphalt industry in California.
Walters (pictured), author and award-winning dean of California political columnists, noted how California politics can confound even the most experienced pundits, with several prominent examples in the decades he has been on the political beat: The Proposition 13 tax revolt of the late 1970s, the recall of Gov. Gray Davis in the 1990s, and replacement by action movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger, and most recently the ascendence of Gavin Newsom as governor and 2028 presidential hopeful.
With Newsom limited to two terms in office, which will end in January, there was no clear front-runner among the 61 declared candidates for governor in the June 2 primary election. On the Democratic side, billionaire Tom Styer was spending hundreds of millions of dollars on his self-funded campaign, and former Congresswoman Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and Rep Eric Swalwell at times appeared to be gaining traction and then faded. In the final weeks of the campaign, former California Attorney General and U.S. Housing & Urban Development Secretary Xavier Becerra surged from the back of the pack into the lead. He will face Republican commentator Steve Hilton, who has the endorsement of President Donald Trump.
Walters said it is stories like this, so-called Black Swan events that are hard to predict, that keeps California politics interesting. HIs assessment of Newsom, who he has been covering since Newsom was mayor of San Francisco, was unflinching.
"I've never seen a governor so boastful," Walters said of Newsom. "He has this need to be recognized."
A Becerra administration, if it comes to fruition, will be much more staid, Walters predicted.
"He will be a Johnny Lunchbucket of a governor," he said. "A combination of (Republican) George Deukmejian and (Democrat) Gray Davis."
Walters also regaled the audience of road-builders with his interactions with former Caltrans Director Adriana Gianturco, who helmed the department during a turbulent time during the first Brown administration. "She was truly anti-highway," Walters noted. "She shut down projects that had been in progress for years."
"However, in his second incarnation," Walters noted, "Jerry Brown 2.0, one of the things that he did was to get SB1 passed, and that has obviously pumped a lot of money into highway construction." SB1, the $50 billion Road Repair & Accountability Act, was signed into law by Brown in 2017.
As for handicapping the 2028 presidential race, Walters cautioned that although Newsom may be perceived as a frontrunner in some polls, there is a lot of campaigning to be done before voters decide who will be the nation's next president. Looking ahead, California's likely loss of more Congressional seats following the 2030 census due to a declining population, which has Electoral College implications, does not bode well nationwide for Democratic candidates on national tickets.
Other experts at the two-day conclave did a deep dive in the state of the asphalt market in California, the regulatory environment, petroleum industry shocks and technical trends, all of which have an impact to the bottom line of any business in the asphalt space.
Mike Skinner, executive director of the CalAPA-supported Asphalt Pavement Alliance, provided a national perspective on market-share trends, borrowing a term from the military, "situational awareness." Crystal Howard with Crystal Waters Consulting, an economist who produces CalAPA's exclusive Asphalt Market Forecast for California, provided a mid-year update that factored in recent oil shocks, the impact of tariffs, and economic funding scenarios.
Bob Brown with the Western States Petroleum Association provided insight into the uniqueness of the California petroleum market, which impacts fuel prices, and liquid asphalt supply, not only in the Golden State but also in Nevada and Arizona.
Jhony Habbouche with the Asphalt Institute provided a timely presentation on how artificial intelligence technologies are shaping the asphalt industry, CalAPA's technical director, Brandon Milar, P.E., provided a technical and specification update with a focus on changes in state and local asphalt pavement specifications and test methods.
A "Power Policy Panel" was comprised of CalAPA leaders who help shape the association's legislative and regulatory strategy was comprised of Scott Cohen with Sespe Consulting and Scott Taylor with Taylor Environmental Services (Environmental Committee co-chairs); Aimi Dutra with Dutra Materials, a CRH Company (Legislative Committee Chair); and past CalAPA Chairman Scott Metcalf with Ergon Asphalt and Emulsions. Capitalizing on a "gamification" trend for in-person educational meetings, audience members during the panel discussion were treated to a unique "Advocacy-Strategy" Bingo game, with Sean Harrigan with the George Reed Companies winning the contest.
Gary Houston with Valero, who does double duty as a member of the CalAPA Board of Directors and also the association's charitable arm, the California Asphalt Research & Education Foundation, provided an update on the association's various workforce-enhancement activities. Communications consultant and media personality Jeff Bliss conducted a session on crisis communications with a "be prepared" theme. His work has been previously featured in CalAPA's association magazine, "California Asphalt," which can be accessed on-line HERE.
Brief welcoming remarks at the conference were delivered by current CalAPA Chairman Frank Costa with Martin Marietta, and immeidate past chairman, Scott Metcalf with Ergon Asphalt & Emulsions, who debuted some impressive asphalt-related "walk on" music.
In addition to the rich content of the "Summit," the event included plenty of social and networking opportunities, including a pre-Summit golf outing, a reception featuring "Dilly-Dalley the Clown," an award-winning balloon animal "twister," and a dinner featuring A-list comedian Jeff Applebaum.
The sponsors of the event were Albina Asphalt, CRH, Ergon Asphalt & Emulsions, Martin Marietta, Mercer-Fraser, Pavement Recycling Systems, the Reed Family Companies, Sully-Miller/Blue Diamond Materials and Valero Energy.
An announcement will be made later for the 2027 "Summit at the Summit" to take place at the same location in June, the Hyatt Regency Lake Tahoe Resort. Additional photos of the event are posted on CalAPA's various social media feeds, including Facebook, which may be viewed HERE.
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