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PDF | Research | Week of February 26, 2024

Quote of the Week

“From a very big picture perspective, it’s still looking good.”

– Brian Rose, senior US economist, UBS Global Wealth Management. 

 
 

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How to Stop Worrying About the Maturity Wall (First of a Series)

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The New Order: Leverage Finance in an Asset Management World (First of a Series)

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We were perusing recently a piece on the future of private equity in an excellent state of the market study from Evercore’s private funds group. One of the paragraph section subtitles read: “The corporate governance fix that became an asset class.”


The thesis was that private equity sponsors solve strategic problems for growing (or challenged) businesses by giving management upside in the performance of the company in exchange for capital and corporate support. That fix, of course, has led to the development of an industry that so far has amassed, according to the article, AUM of $14 trillion.


In the same way, we think, private credit has grown from a back-water of middle market lending in the 1980’s to beachfront in the fastest growing element of the capital markets. We would suggest private credit is “The regulatory fix that became an asset class.”...

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New: Private Capital Call Podcast


Episode 4: Edward Goldstein, Partner and CIO of Coller Credit Secondaries

"Secondary market is at a stage where it’s starting to show a level of consistency in transaction volume." - Edward Goldstein

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Chart of the Week

Wait Expectations

Expectations for Fed rate cuts soften as the economy remains strong.

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Source: The Daily Shot


(Past performance is no guarantee of future results.)

February 6 & 7, 2024

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Loan Stats at a Glance 

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Contact: Ryan Brown / PitchBook LCD

PDI Picks

Private markets get the nod over the long term

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Investors are confident in the future of private markets, but fund managers have shown combining public and private market investment through flexible mandates can work well.

Our recently published LP Perspectives 2024 study asked investors to compare prospects for public and private markets over the short, medium and long term. What it found was that respondents favoured public markets over the short term and private markets over the longer term...

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Leveraged Loan Insight & Analysis

US repricing volume totals US$73bn

so far this quarter

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So far this quarter, US repricing volume totals US$76bn, the most since 1Q21, as dozens of issuers have returned to market to cut the spread on their institutional loans. There has been 59 completed repriced tranches this quarter, also the highest since 1Q21...

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Contact: David Puchowski / LSEG

The Pulse of Private Equity

Gross private credit returns/appreciation

by manager*

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The top seven US-listed alt managers with credit strategies—including TPG, as its acquisition of Angelo Gordon (AG) closed on November 2, 2023—posted median Q4 and 2023 returns of 4.0% and 16.4%, respectively, which compares favorably to the 9.8% PE gross returns referenced above...

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Contact: Garrett Black / PitchBook

KBRA Direct Lending Deals: News & Analysis

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TTM Default Volume, Count

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Contact: Eric Rosenthal / KBRA DLD

Middle Market & Private Credit

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Fitch’s Private Middle Market Portfolio, Rating Activity

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Defaults in Fitch’s PMM portfolio persisted at a low level in 4Q23 with two issuers defaulting, bringing the year’s total to 15 defaults across 10 issuers on a portfolio of around 275 companies...

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Contact: Brad Hamner / FitchRatings

Covenant Trends 

Percentage of First Lien Loans with Affected Lender Voting Protection

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Contact: Steven Miller / Covenant Review

High-Yield Bond Statistics

Launched Volume

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New-issue Yields

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Weekly Fund Flows

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Weekly fund flows source: Lipper

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Contact: Robert Polenberg / LevFin Insights

Debtwire Middle-Market

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The blue line in the chart is the current dividend yield of the *VanEck BDC Income ETF (currently at 10.8% as of 15 February, down from the highest level in last 12 months of 12.1% in May 2023) that tracks the overall performance of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs, lenders to privately held middle-market businesses that tend to be below investment grade or not rated, with most lending comprising of senior secured loans)...

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Contact: Suneet Chandvani / Debtwire 

Private Debt Intelligence

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Fundraising concentration remains stable amid 2023’s challenging market conditions

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Despite a difficult 2023, fundraising concentration in private capital markets has remained level for funds and managers in the four years since 2019. Using a Gini co-efficient to demonstrate the distribution of capital across funds shows that fundraising concentration is increasing long-term...

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Contact: William Bennett-Lynch / Preqin

Middle Market Deal Terms at a Glance

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Contact: Stefan Shaffer / SPP Capital Partners

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This publication is a service to our clients and friends. It is designed only to give general information on the market developments actually covered. It is not intended to be a comprehensive summary of recent developments or to suggest parameters for any prospective financing opportunity.