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Good Friday morning!
Happy Valentine's Day! And no both parties are not happy about it. The bulls obviously are loving it but the bears, well let's just say, they aren't! And hey as far as the picture above, sorry but it was the best I could do! Not too bad though, right?! lol
Anyway, the continued strength and resiliency from the buyers has been impressive, and consistently disappointing the bears, because even with all that is going on regarding an "overbought" market (as many people feel), tariffs, and other seemingly bearish data, the market keeps chugging along higher and yesterday was another perfect example!
As you can see in the profile pic below, price is currently above the value area high, and also what's called the "bottom of the spike". Late day yesterday, there was an aggressive move up and short squeeze, where those who were short had to scramble to cover, and and the markets closed much higher leaving value well below. The overnight low sits at 6121 and the bottom of the spike sits at 6114, so any price that stays above the overnight low and bottom of the spike is obviously the most bullish outcome. The only thing that would change the tone of this market right now is if we lost the bottom of the spike and then went down to half back @ 6104, then lost the POC (Point of Control) at 6099. That's it! Any price action that stays above 6114 and 6121 is continued edge to the buyers.
If sellers do step up and a liquidation break occurs below 6114, then the 1/2 back, POC then VAL and prior days lows are the next targets. Just keep an eye on tempo and momentum if selling does show up today! Remember we are going to have pullbacks and ups and down but the speed and velocity of these moves are whats key! Futures are trading @ 6133 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's yesterday so we still have 6148.50 and 6171 above and 29 below. 6148.50 is definitely in play today.
REMINDER:
Quick PSA (Public Service Announcement): The markets will be closed Monday, February 17th in observance of Washington's Birthday!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6150 - 6160
Key Levels: 6121 Overnight Low & 6114 Bottom of Spike
downside target is: 6100 - 6090
/NQ upside target is: 22,240 - 22,260
Key Level: 22,050 Value Area High & Overnight Low
downside target is : 22,075 - 22,040
/RTY upside target is: 2305 - 2315
downside target is: 2270 - 2260
Economic Data: Light Day
Retail Sales @ 8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices @ 8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production @ 9:15 AM ET
Business Inventories
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
Lorie Logan Speaks @ 3:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand at $6055-6050 with Supply above at $6110
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $6075 looking to play a break and retest from $6080 long targeting $6100 then new HOD
Bearish Buyers trapped below $6070 looking to play short from $6060 targeting $6040 then a break down into $6030s
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SPY - Key demand at $605 with Supply above at $608- 607
Bullish Sellers trapped above $605 looking to play a break and retest from $606 long targeting $608 then a breakout into $609
Bearish Buyers trapped below $605 after a break and retest from $604 targeting $602 then a breakdown into $601
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/NQ - Key demand at $21900 then below at $21750 with Supply above at $22055-65
Bullish Sellers trapped above $21900 looking to play a break and retest from $21950 long targeting $22100 then a breakout into $22200
Bearish Buyers trapped below $21900 looking to play short from $21875 targeting a breakdown into $21700 then $21600s
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QQQ Key Demand at $528-529 with Supply above at $534-533
Bullish Sellers trapped above $529 looking to play a break and retest from $530 targeting $531 then a breakout into $532
Bearish Buyers trapped below $528 looking to play a break and retest short from $527 targeting $525 then $524
Have a great day and a fun 3 day weekend!
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